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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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As of 7 pm, New York City had picked up 0.62" rain bringing its yearly total to 23.48". That is 2.09" above normal. Additional rainfall is likely tonight into the first part of tomorrow. Overall, the region remains in line for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts.

At present, the implied probability of New York City's seeing 50" or more precipitation is 62% (1971-2018 period).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +8.15 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.864. The AO has averaged -0.739 through the first 10 days of June. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region.

On June 9, the MJO moved into Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.801 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the June 8-adjusted figure of 1.092.

Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 69.6°.

The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently approximately 54%.

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Pretty impressive rates with that line that just passed through, dropped visibility on the TZ to a couple hundred feet. 

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Next 8 days averaging 73.5degs., or 3degs. AN .

Month to date is  +1.1[69.6].       Should be +1.9[71.3] by the 19th.

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A new month and another US  location picks up double-digit rainfall totals. The record wet pattern is forecast to continue for the US. The only question is whether one of our major climate sites records a double digit-rainfall month before this streak ends. Some smaller stations may have pulled this off last August.

2010’s 10.00”+ months for at least one of our major climate sites including airports and NYC

Mar 2010

Aug Sep 2011

Jun 2013

Aug 2014

 

NORTH CAROLINA...
BOONE 4 E                            13.57                    
FLEETWOOD 2 N                        10.25                    
TROUT 2 SE                           10.17                    

 

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Wait for a TS born and bred over the Gulf Stream that sits/drifts on a stalled front for say 3 days.    There is your double-digit month for some coastal city.

What about the Connie/Diane duo-tagteam of 1955?

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With the exception of southern and eastern sections of the northern Middle Atlantic region, the general idea of 0.50"-1.50" rainfall worked out quite well. The excessive amounts shown on several runs of the FV3 (which likely indicates that the model is not ready for operational use) did not pan out.

Rainfall amounts through 8 am included:

Allentown: 0.89"
Atlantic City: 0.97"
Boston: 0.49" (rain was still falling)
Bridgeport: 0.38"
Islip: 0.41"
New York City: 1.07"
Newark: 0.97"
Philadelphia: 0.38"
Providence: 1.16" (rain was still falling)
White Plains: 0.63"

New York City's total precipitation at Central Park is now 23.93". Based on the 1971-2018 period, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will pick up 50.00" or more precipitation.
The lowest precipitation from June 12-December 31 was 11.33", which occurred in 1965. The highest was 47.14", which fell in 2011. Last year, 42.29" precipitation fell during that period.

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17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With the exception of southern and eastern sections of the northern Middle Atlantic region, the general idea of 0.50"-1.50" rainfall worked out quite well. The excessive amounts shown on several runs of the FV3 (which likely indicates that the model is not ready for operational use) did not pan out.

Rainfall amounts through 8 am included:

Allentown: 0.89"
Atlantic City: 0.97"
Boston: 0.49" (rain was still falling)
Bridgeport: 0.38"
Islip: 0.41"
New York City: 1.07"
Newark: 0.97"
Philadelphia: 0.38"
Providence: 1.16" (rain was still falling)
White Plains: 0.63"

New York City's total precipitation at Central Park is now 23.93". Based on the 1971-2018 period, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will pick up 50.00" or more precipitation.
The lowest precipitation from June 12-December 31 was 11.33", which occurred in 1965. The highest was 47.14", which fell in 2011. Last year, 42.29" precipitation fell during that period.

Don, it looks like the FV3 will go operational tomorrow barring any last minute delays. Hopefully, they can fix the cold bias that produced all the fantasy snow for us last winter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/06/weather-service-says-its-upgraded-american-forecasting-model-is-about-ready-prime-time/?utm_term=.534f91df1092

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

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Another 0.16" since midnight, 0.97" for event. Cold front thru as temp down to 60° after hitting 70 a few hours ago. Looks like another soaker  possible wed  night into thurs.

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34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Don, it looks like the FV3 will go operational tomorrow barring any last minute delays. Hopefully, they can fix the cold bias that produced all the fantasy snow for us last winter.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/06/weather-service-says-its-upgraded-american-forecasting-model-is-about-ready-prime-time/?utm_term=.534f91df1092

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

I know. That’s why I noted the excessive QPF. Its 500 mb scores are modestly better than those for the GFS. It still seems to have large misses on specific events. I will be interested to see how it fares with tropical cyclones and later potential winter storms.

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Clearing line approaching (hope this isnt a cahed image)

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like from yesterday

 

Been a lingering glitch on the site for a year or so now.  Until a new thread is started.  

 

Another source

 

vis0.gif

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One of the rare deep blue sky days with no smoke or scattered clouds.

 

53FED91B-8B24-4D74-88FA-97E1548EB35A.thumb.jpeg.623c53bf4dbff6e81c058ced06ec57bc.jpeg

 

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the euro is close to having a heat wave next week

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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record Greenland block finally starts to weaken by Sunday or Monday.  So the SE Ridge begins to flex again. 850s are plenty warm for 90 degrees. Looks like clouds and convection could be the only thing that may limit high temperature potential.

also significant is the west coast ridge retrograding

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In the foreseeable   future....Thurs looks wet with inch plus  amounts...Nam wants to keep warm front into central nj again, so  would be cool and raw north of there  if correct.

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49 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

also significant is the west coast ridge retrograding

Ridiculous June heat in San Francisco.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1138246762479652864

Today's 100 degree max temp at SFO also goes down as the hottest max temperature in meteorological summer (June-July-August) on record. All other 100 degree days on record occurred in September.

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Next 10 days means:   EURO  78*    GFS   86*

But once again no support for 90*---certainly not the 5 in a row, the GFS throws at us---shown here:

 

2019061112_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Ridiculous June heat in San Francisco.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1138246762479652864

Today's 100 degree max temp at SFO also goes down as the hottest max temperature in meteorological summer (June-July-August) on record. All other 100 degree days on record occurred in September.

I wonder how many there dont have air conditioning.  Normal high is 66 there right now.

 

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In the wake of the recent rainstorm, year-to-date precipitation totals and anomalies for select cities are as follows:

Allentown: 27.34" (+8.94"); Binghamton: 18.28" (+1.98"); Boston: 20.70" (+0.98"); Bridgeport: 22.41" (+2.97"); Harrisburg: 23.00" (+6.17"); Islip: 22.68" (+1.42"); New York City: 23.93" (+2.38"); Newark: 24.45" (+3.98"); Philadelphia: 20.72" (+2.65"); Portland: 23.55" (+2.82"); Providence: 25.29" (3.66"); and, Scranton: 20.19" (+4.86").

Another system could bring another 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation to parts of the region Thursday into Friday. Unlike with the recent system, there is a increased prospect that some locations could pick up 2.00" or more of precipitation.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +19.61 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.090. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region.

On June 10, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.817 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the June 9-adjusted figure of 0.797.

Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 69.1° (0.2° below normal).

The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently approximately 60%.

Finally, with today's 98° maximum temperature, San Francisco smashed the old daily record of 88°, which was set in 1985. Yesterday, San Francisco had a 100° high. Until now, San Francisco had never had a 100° temperature prior to September 1. The June 1-11 period has had a mean temperature of 67.3°. The previous warmest first 11 days of the month occurred in 1960 with a mean temperature of 65.5°.

 

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coolest mid June days for NYC...the 46 on this date in 1972 is the lowest for this late in the season...the cool fair days are upper 40's for lows and around 70 for highs...the cool wet days are mid to upper 50's for highs and low to mid 50's for lows...

day.....max...min....year

11th.....57.....52.....1916

11th.....59.....57.....1910

11th.....69.....46.....1972

11th.....70.....49.....1980

12th.....70.....48.....1979

13th.....55.....52.....1982

13th.....58.....55.....1962

14th.....59.....54.....1907

14th.....70.....49.....1875

15th.....71.....48.....1933

15th.....70.....49.....1884

16th.....62.....53.....1965

17th.....68.....51.....1926

18th.....72.....48.....1950

19th.....59.....55.....1935

20th.....59.....57.....1958

20th.....71.....49.....1914

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Next 8 days averaging 73.5degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.0[69.6].       Should be +1.4[71.2] by the 20th.

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12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder how many there dont have air conditioning.  Normal high is 66 there right now.

 

Some pretty extreme heat out there since the PDO and NPM warmed so dramatically in recent years.  The North Pacific warm blob has been dueling with the one off the East Coast. We saw all-time heat records for May in the SE US. Our area has found a way to avoid the record heat this year so far. Less warm is the new cool.

 

EAC62BDA-C9DF-4FB7-8A09-041C4C17E762.png.78acd677513d9200efc689b6ba0fbc9c.png

2EB643B4-4BB0-4049-8E5A-294FCE0848B9.png.03c2662c07cee86c809d2a92d6d33a36.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Some pretty extreme heat out there since the PDO and NPM warmed so dramatically in recent years.  The North Pacific warm blob has been dueling with the one off the East Coast. We saw all-time heat records for May in the SE US. Our area has found a way to avoid the record heat this year so far. Less warm is the new cool.

@bluewave do you think that PDO dip in Jan ( heart of winter ) combined with the +SOI was partly the issue to the warmer weather and delayed pattern change to more robust winter outcomes on the East Coast?  (I know there were many explanations ) 

Seems we ramped up the last 4 months. Nice post ! 

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, frd said:

@bluewave do you think that PDO dip in Jan ( heart of winter ) combined with the +SOI was partly the issue to the warmer weather and delayed pattern change to more robust winter outcomes on the East Coast?  (I know there were many explanations ) 

Seems we ramped up the last 4 months. Nice post ! 

 

 

 

It seems like all the record Pacific SST warmth west of the dateline produced more of La Niña response from the SOI, MJO, and Pacific Jet.

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