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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Next 8 days averaging 70.5degs., or just about Normal.

Month to date is  +2.0[70.0].      This should make the first half of June  +0.9.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You know that there is an extreme -NAO pattern in June when we can’t reach the 90’s with a 588 DM ridge.

 

CAA9C0D0-2251-4838-AE2A-CE26E9F2A965.thumb.png.ec2e1ea32cbb9b86fe8e12d79592c0ca.png

2770FD8E-1486-4AEE-BF82-F3BBD49B2E2A.thumb.gif.33aa63747e86ef686631d74ab6fee1d9.gif

 

I’m already psyched for it to flip positive just in time to spoil winter for the coast :-P

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

You know that there is an extreme -NAO pattern in June when we can’t reach the 90’s with a 588 DM ridge.

 

CAA9C0D0-2251-4838-AE2A-CE26E9F2A965.thumb.png.ec2e1ea32cbb9b86fe8e12d79592c0ca.png

2770FD8E-1486-4AEE-BF82-F3BBD49B2E2A.thumb.gif.33aa63747e86ef686631d74ab6fee1d9.gif

 

500 - 600 miles too far north.  

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Some high clouds fog burn off but shaping up to be the nicest day for a while / till next weekend maybe

(not sure why its showing yesterdays loop)  

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

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Through the first week and despite a lack of heat, overall warm in the area.  These will likely be eroded 6/9 - 6/15

Dep thru 6/7

NYC: +1.9
EWR: +2.2
LGA: +2.5
JFK: +1.6
ISP: +2.5
TTN:  +1.6
PHL:  +2.3

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8 years ago 2011 temps hit 100 in the area a 3 day precursor to the July frunace.

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June's longest heat waves and most total 90 degree days...2008 had a four day heat wave around this time of year...

6/24-28/1880...

max...min...

93......66

94......77

91......77

92......73

94......76

………………...

6/26-30/1901

91......72

91......74

93......75

95......76

95......60

……………………….

6/3-7/1925

94......68

99......76

99......78

98......77

96......63

…………………….

6/14-18/1945

92......68

93......76

93......71

93......74

92......71

……………….

6/15-19/1957

93......69

95......76

96......77

93......76

92......73

…………………..

6/24-28/1963

90......65

95......68

96......69

95......72

94......73

…………………..

6/7-11/1984

92......72

94......77

96......77

95......79

94......78

………………….

6/12-16/1988

90......61

93......69

96......71

96......74

92......69

………………..

most 90 degree days...

11 in 1943

10 in 1966

09 in 1925

09 in 1991

08 in 1923

08 in 1945

08 in 1953

08 in 1988

07 in 1899

07 in 1949

07 in 1941

07 in 1964

07 in 1994

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Yesterday's forecast was mostly sunny and it was mostly cloudy, today the call was sunny and so far overcast.
 
Yea, disappointing so far

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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We need to keep an eye on Monday and Tuesday for a flash flooding threat. WPC has Day 3 in a slight risk but may be upgraded to a moderate risk of flash flooding especially across PA. They are waiting for additional model agreement however they are thinking 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible. 

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Today featured abundant sunshine with some high clouds. As a result, the temperature rose to 81° in New York City. The weather was outstanding for the opening of the New York Botanical Garden’s “Brazilian Modern: The Living Art of Roberto Burle Marx” summer show.

The first three photos are from the Modernist Garden, which is the centerpiece of the show. The fourth is from the Water Garden.

NYBG06082019-2.jpg

NYBG06082019-3.jpg

NYBG06082019-4.jpg

NYBG06082019-1.jpg

 

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6 hours ago, uncle W said:

most 90 degree days...

11 in 1943

10 in 1966

09 in 1925

09 in 1991

08 in 1923

08 in 1945

08 in 1953

08 in 1988

07 in 1899

07 in 1949

07 in 1941

07 in 1964

07 in 1994

The lack of recent years here really surprised me at first but now that I think about it I can't remember any June that felt oppressively hot. Very different story for July and August.  

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Next 8 days averaging 69degs., or 2degs. BN.

Month to date is +2.1[70.3].    Should be just Normal by the 17th.   0.0[69.6].

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More heavy rainfall potential this week as multiple storms undercut the near record Greenland block for June at 585 DM. At least we were able to sneak in a dry weekend in the continuing record US rainfall pattern.

 

4ED31479-169A-4058-9539-712268B8F1AD.thumb.png.7220977b68bdee0789f38edebf883dc0.png

1A5F4C49-D2F7-4536-927A-522002B496A8.thumb.png.d14c79eadfea50aedeae3cb72fb7605d.png

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California-like day out there today.  This will make 3  great weekends in a row overall since the Motherss day awfulness .  Guidance continues to keep summer / heat at bay but i still think once past fathers day we warm things up and EWR / LGA even NYC will grab 90's before July in the last 10 days of June.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This is beautiful

Who wants 90s?

90's is so 2010's - lets go for 100's 1966 style :sun:;):sun:

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3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

90's is so 2010's - lets go for 100's 1966 style :sun:;):sun:

I was seventeen in 1966 and it was a very good year...I remember the buckling highways from the heat...1966 had three heat waves that topped the 100 degree mark...it was a very dry summer also and the decade drought broke in September...

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

More heavy rainfall potential this week as multiple storms undercut the near record Greenland block for June at 585 DM. At least we were able to sneak in a dry weekend in the continuing record US rainfall pattern.

 

4ED31479-169A-4058-9539-712268B8F1AD.thumb.png.7220977b68bdee0789f38edebf883dc0.png

1A5F4C49-D2F7-4536-927A-522002B496A8.thumb.png.d14c79eadfea50aedeae3cb72fb7605d.png

We've basically been in a wet  pattern now since  Feb 2018...Most rain threats  live up to or exceeds expectations. ....We'll see how much longer this will  last...My station has received about 95" of precip during this period.

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23 minutes ago, doncat said:

We've basically been in a wet  pattern now since  Feb 2018...Most rain threats  live up to or exceeds expectations. ....We'll see how much longer this will  last...My station has received about 95" of precip during this period.

Be interesting to see if one of our major climate sites can pick up a 10.00+” rainfall month before this streak ends. Some smaller stations may have done it last summer. But the last 10.00”+ month at one of our major sites was August 2014 at Islip.

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Extracted from my summer outlook; just as an FYI for anyone who thinks the present pattern is antithetical to some forecasters' expectations:

 

The coolest of the three meteorological summer months relative to normal should be June...Residual high latitude blocking may persist for much of June, permitting more frequent trough amplification events in the northern tier of the United States."

 

So, the overall hot summer idea is not in jeopardy with the present pattern. The spasmodic cool-shots in June were expected from my standpoint. 

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GFS keeps pushing any 90's further into the month, from the 18th to the 23rd. now,  during recent runs.

This does not seem to support any 90's at all, during the next 15 days:

2019060900_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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