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Rtd208

June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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No 90 degree heat for a while as 80 will continue to be the new 90.

 

9A4509E9-6F7F-4494-A653-4513C15C2D74.thumb.png.44882a0bc77d9d36a57a325f9c4e6db8.png

EC4931B6-7F0C-4EFB-9E9C-2B8916368FBE.thumb.png.76d800c4c5b35323e9f1da7b037edb4c.png

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Where ya headed? They've gotten more rain than we have in most of the upstate areas so it doesn't take much for it to be very muggy. DON'T forget the bug spray, it's a special kind of year going on so far.

Ithaca for a college reunion. Looks warm but at least the humidity will be low. 

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Feels radically different outside now than it did earlier, dew point down to 63, maxed out at 73 earlier, temp still in the 80’s but it feels cooler.

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4 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Feels radically different outside now than it did earlier, dew point down to 63, maxed out at 73 earlier, temp still in the 80’s but it feels cooler.

It's incredible how 70+ DPs can make a normally comfortable temperature feel oppressive.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Undular bore with the weak backdoor to our east. MTP dropped nearly 10 degrees with the wind shift.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KMTP&table=1&num=168&banner=off

8CD05897-6F1F-4638-BFEB-154ADF33AECA.jpeg.0775a72e227468acd66b3ae55174d85c.jpeg

Sea breezes are magical this time of year up here. Afternoon/evening temps in the mid 60's, slight breeze and just perfect for June. Hopefully when the waters do warm up enough and the sea breezes are negligible, the big SE ridge doesn't start pumping for the summer up to the NE. I'm sure I'm in the minority of this but a cool summer relative to normal would be fine for this guy.

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Next 8 days averaging 71degs., or 1deg AN.

I reached near 85* yesterday, which may have been higher than the City.

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal is more of the same. The spring pattern gets stuck in place for the summer. We are already seeing a continuation of the spring pattern this June.

 

40988464-241D-450D-9F6D-5A4956301357.jpeg.1587b50acad6bff9f24fe997c6edbed9.jpeg

FDEF00A6-0843-4CED-89E5-424F7DDAC5ED.png.400c8956bacc6c011e901a152ca103f8.png

 

Larry Cosgrove's hotter summer idea looks to be in jeopardy. (Isotherm as well).

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Larry Cosgrove's hotter summer idea looks to be in jeopardy. (Isotherm as well).

June looks to be cool....euro has a widespread cool pool overspreading the east in the new week or so....July and August still up for grabs.

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30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

June looks to be cool....euro has a widespread cool pool overspreading the east in the new week or so....July and August still up for grabs.

Almost sounds like us wishing for snow and pointing to the SSW or other events that would bring us snow... we kept wishing for it. It never arrived, sadly.

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9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Almost sounds like us wishing for snow and pointing to the SSW or other events that would bring us snow... we kept wishing for it. It never arrived, sadly.

yeah, I don't see any signal for heat anytime soon.    Models look cool and wet next 7-10 days (starting Monday)

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Larry Cosgrove's hotter summer idea looks to be in jeopardy. (Isotherm as well).

Could end up being an average summer, which would feel downright cool versus what we're used to. 

But it's also possible that the -NAO translates into hotter weather by mid July. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 2010’s definition of a cooler summer is under 30 days reaching 90 degrees at Newark for the year. This would only be the 4th year this decade should this Euro seasonal verify.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
2018 36 0
2017 22 0
2016 40 0
2015 35 0
2014 15 0
2013 25 0
2012 33 0
2011 31 0
2010 54 0

Other than 2010 / 2012 number of 90 degree days was lower in June

 

 

2018:

PHL: 30 (April: 0; May : 1 ; June: 4 ; Jul: 11; Aug: 10 ; Sep: 4 )
EWR: 36 (April: 0; May: 4 ; June: 5; Jul: 9 ; Aug: 14; Sep: 4 )
TTN: 29(April: ; May: 2 ; June: 4; Jul: 8 ; Aug: 11; Sep: 4)
LGA: 38 (April: 0; May: 4; June: 4; Jul: 10; Aug: 16; Sep: 4)
ACY: 38 (April: 0; May: 3; June: 5 ; Jul: 11 ; Aug: 13 ; Sep: 4)
TEB: 41 (April: 0; May: 4 ; June: 5 ; Jul: 10  ; Aug: 18; Sep: 4 )
NYC: 21 (April: 0; May: 2 ; June: 3; Jul: 6; Aug: 7 ; Sep: 3)
JFK: 8 (April: 0; May: ; June: 1; Jul: 2 ; Aug: 4; Sep: 1)
ISP: 8 (April: 0; May: ; June:  ; Jul:2 ; Aug: 5  ; Sep: 1)
New Bnswk: 33 (April: , May: 2, June: 4, July: 10; Aug: 13 ;Sep:; 4 )

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2017

PHL: 27 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 11 ; Aug:  5; Sep:2 )
EWR: 22 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 5 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 2 ; Sep: 3 )
TTN: 17 (Apr: 0  ; May: 3  ; Jun: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 2 ; Sep: 2)
LGA: 17 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 8 ; Aug: 2 ; Sep: 1)
ACY: 17 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )
TEB: 24 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 5; Jul: 10 ; Aug: 3 ; Sep: 3)
NYC: 13 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3; Jul: 5 ; Aug:  1; Sep: 1)
JFK: 9 (April: 0; May: 1 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 5 Aug:  ; Sep: 1)
ISP: 8 (April: 0; May : ; June: 2 ; Jul: 6; Aug:  ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 23 (April: 0; May: 3; June: 8 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 2; Sep: 1)

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2016:

PHL: 45 (Apr: 0  ; May:  3; Jun: 5 ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 16 ; Sep: 5
EWR: 40 (Apr: 0  ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 16; Aug: 13 ; Sep: 5
TTN: 35 (Apr: 0  ; May: 2  ; Jun: 4; Jul: 13; Aug: 12 ; Sep: 4
LGA: 32 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 1; Jul : 15;  Aug: 10 ; Sep: 3
ACY: 30 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 4  ; Jul: 12; Aug: 10; Sep: 3
TEB: 35 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4  ; Jun : ; Jul: 15; Aug: 11; Sep: 5
NYC: 22  (Apr: 0 ; May: 2  ; Jun: ; Jul: 10; Aug: 7; Sep: 3
JFK: 15 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0  ; Jun:1 ; Jul: 7 ; Aug: 6; Sep: 1
ISP: 15 (Apr: 0 ; May:  ; Jun:  ; Jul: 7 ; Aug: 7; Sep: 1

New Brunswick: 39 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4  ; Jun: 3; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 11; Sep: 5
 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2015:


PHL: 37 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1; Jun: 7; Jul: 10; Aug: 12; Sep: 7
EWR: 35 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun 4; Jul: 11; Aug: 13; Sep: 5
TTN: 27 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 9; Sep: 6
LGA: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun:3; Jul : 6; Aug: 8; Sep: 3
ACY: 21 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 4; Aug: 8; Sep: 3
TEB: 38 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun : 5; Jul: 8; Aug: 12; Sep: 8
NYC: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 5 ; Aug: 8; Sep: 6
JFK: 12 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul:3 ; Aug: 6; Sep: 2
ISP: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 0 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: 2; Sep: 2

New Brunswick: 36 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 11; Aug: 14; Sep: 6


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2014

PHL: 19 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: 3; Jul: 11 ; Aug: 3; Sep: 2; Oct:0 )
EWR: 15 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2; Jul: 8 ; Aug: 2; Sep: 3; Oct: 0 )
TTN: 11 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2; Jul: 7 ; Aug: 0; Sep: 2; Oct: 0 )
LGA: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 0 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: 1; Sep: 2; Oct: 0)
ACY: 8 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4 ; Aug: 0; Sep: 2; Oct: 0 )
TEB: 24 (April: 0; May: 1 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 9 ; Aug: 4; Sep: 4; Oct: 0 )
NYC: 8 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 0 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: 3; Sep: 2; Oct: 0)
JFK: 2 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 1 ; Jul: 0 ; Aug: 0 ; Sep: 1; Oct: 0)
ISP: 0 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 0 ; Jul: 0 ; Aug: 0; Sep: 0; Oct: 0)
New Bnswk: 17 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 3; Sep: 4; Oct: 0)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2013

PHL: 20 (April: 0; May:3 ; June: 4; Jul: 12 ; Aug: ; Sep: 1; Oct: )
EWR: 25 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 4; Jul: 15 ; Aug: 3; Sep: 1; Oct: )
TTN: 16 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 3; Jul: 10 ; Aug: ; Sep: 1; Oct: )
LGA: 21 (April: 0; May:2 ; June:2 ; Jul: 15 ; Aug: 1; Sep: 1; Oct:)
ACY: 17 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 4 ; Jul: 11 ; Aug: ; Sep: 1; Oct: )
TEB: 28 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 2 ; Sep: 1; Oct: 1 )
NYC: 17 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 10 ; Aug: 1; Sep: 1; Oct: )
JFK: 9 (April: 0; May: ; June:2 ; Jul:7 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct: )
ISP: 10 (April: 0; May: ; June:2 ; Jul: 8 ; Aug: ; Sep:; Oct:)
New Bnswk: 23 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 3; Jul: 14 ; Aug: 3 ; Sep: 1; Oct:)



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2012

PHL: 39 (April: 0; May 2: ; June:7 ; Jul: 21; Aug: 8 ; Sep: 1 )
EWR: 33 (April: 0; May: 2 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 7; Sep: 2 )
TTN: 29 (April: 1; May: 2 ; June: 7 ; Jul: 15 ; Aug: 3; Sep:1 )
LGA: 28 (April: 0; May: 2; June:6 ; Jul: 14; Aug: 6; Sep: )
ACY: 26 (April: 0; May: 2; June: 6 ; Jul: 14 ; Aug: 3; Sep:1 )
TEB: 36 (April: 0; May: 2; June: 6 ; Jul: 17 ; Aug: 9; Sep:2 )
NYC: 19 (April: 0; May: ; June:5 ; Jul: 10; Aug: 3; Sep:1 )
JFK: 16 ((April: 0; May: ; June: 5 ; Jul: 8 ; Aug: 2 ; Sep:1 )
ISP: 11 (April: 0; May: ; June: 5 ; Jul: 6; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 35 (April: 1, May: 2, June: 6, July: 17; Aug: 8;Sep:1; )


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2011

PHL: 33 (April: 0; May: 3; June: 5 ; Jul: 21 ; Aug: 4 ; Sep: )
EWR: 31 (April: 0; May: 1; June: 4; Jul: 22; Aug: 4; Sep: )
TTN: 26 (April: 0; May: 2; June: 3; Jul: 17 ; Aug: 4; Sep: )
LGA: 18 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 13; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )
ACY: 32 (April: 0; May: 1; June: 6 ; Jul: 21 ; Aug: 4; Sep: )
TEB: 28 (April: 0; May: 2; June: 4 ; Jul: 18 ; Aug: 4; Sep: )
NYC: 20 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 14; Aug: 3; Sep: )
JFK: 13 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 1 ; Jul: 10; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2010

PHL: 55 (April: 0; May: 2; June: 15; Jul: 19; Aug: 12; Sep: 7) *4 89
EWR: 54 (April: 1; May: 2; June: 13; Jul: 21; Aug: 11; Sep: 6) *3 89
TTN: 52 (April: 0; May: 3; June: 10; Jul: 21; Aug: 13; Sep: 5) *5 89
LGA: 48 (April: 1; May: 2; June: 12; Jul: 18; Aug: 11; Sep: 4) *3 89
ACY: 46 (April: 1; May: 1; June: 14; Jul: 14; Aug: 11; Sep: 5)
TEB: 41 (April: 1; May: 2; June: 10; Jul: 16; Aug: 8; Sep: 4) *4 89
NYC: 37 (April: 1; May: 1; June: 4; Jul: 16; Aug: 12; Sep: 3) *12 89 / 3 88
JFK: 31 (April: 0; May: 1; June: 8; Jul: 12; Aug: 7; Sep: 2) *3 89

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44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Could end up being an average summer, which would feel downright cool versus what we're used to. 

But it's also possible that the -NAO translates into hotter weather by mid July. 

Saw that in 2013.  Does look heatless (90-less) through fathers day.  Period to watch would be 6/18 and beyond do see 850's building into the Lakes/Ohio valley on guidance that period.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Newark would probably need at least 5 days of 90 by June 30th to stay competitive. Then 25 or more  days after July 1st to reach 30 days. This has been the 2010’s pattern necessary to reach 30 days. 2013 came up just short as summer essentially ended early on July 23 following the epic WAR pattern.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Mar 1 to Jun 30
Missing Count
2019-06-30 1 24
2018-06-30 9 0
2017-06-30 8 0
2016-06-30 6 0
2015-06-30 6 0
2014-06-30 2 0
2013-06-30 6 0
2012-06-30 8 0
2011-06-30 5 0
2010-06-30 16 0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jul 1 to Oct 15
Missing Count
2018-10-15 27 0
2017-10-15 14 0
2016-10-15 34 0
2015-10-15 29 0
2014-10-15 13 0
2013-10-15 19 0
2012-10-15 25 0
2011-10-15 26 0
2010-10-15 38 0

 

 

 

Good stats blue and thanks for sharing.  I am thinking newark is in the 29-31 (90 degree days) overall/

Lets see if we can heat things up after fathrs day around jun 19.

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13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Good stats blue and thanks for sharing.  I am thinking newark is in the 29-31 (90 degree days) overall/

Lets see if we can heat things up after fathrs day around jun 19.

As climos still going up it's possible to sneak in a 90 degree day or two by that time. 

However it's also more likely that models scale back on any heat potential as we approach that period.

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal is more of the same. The spring pattern gets stuck in place for the summer. We are already seeing a continuation of the spring pattern this June.

 

40988464-241D-450D-9F6D-5A4956301357.jpeg.1587b50acad6bff9f24fe997c6edbed9.jpeg

FDEF00A6-0843-4CED-89E5-424F7DDAC5ED.png.400c8956bacc6c011e901a152ca103f8.png

 

dewpoint special

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Hey folks - was looking to see if anyone has any input on how serious the rain threat is for Thursday afternoon in the Rahway area.  We're scheduled to have a big BBQ for work and almost every major global model right now is showing what looks to be a fairly vigorous upper level trough digging pretty far into the SE with a surface low then tracking NE towards our area, with fairly significant rains from Weds night through Thursday afternoon (NWS NYC/Philly offices are talking about potentially decent rainfall that day in their AFDs).  We need to make a call on having it or postponing by Monday at 4 pm - and we do have a couple of covered pavilions in case of a shower or two, but a steady rain would be worth postponing for - so there's still some time to sort things out, but it's not looking great right now.  Any insight would be appreciated - thanks!

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54 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Hey folks - was looking to see if anyone has any input on how serious the rain threat is for Thursday afternoon in the Rahway area.  We're scheduled to have a big BBQ for work and almost every major global model right now is showing what looks to be a fairly vigorous upper level trough digging pretty far into the SE with a surface low then tracking NE towards our area, with fairly significant rains from Weds night through Thursday afternoon (NWS NYC/Philly offices are talking about potentially decent rainfall that day in their AFDs).  We need to make a call on having it or postponing by Monday at 4 pm - and we do have a couple of covered pavilions in case of a shower or two, but a steady rain would be worth postponing for - so there's still some time to sort things out, but it's not looking great right now.  Any insight would be appreciated - thanks!

It’s a million miles away, I would wait until Monday to get a clearer picture!

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EURO does not even have an 80 degree day here for the next 15 days, while the GFS loves the 90's by late in the period.   

    Predicting precipitation is harder than getting the temperature right.    Next week is all potential.     Who gets the best vertical lifting is what is important.    This is a problem for the  meso-scales  and we are still outside their range.

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13 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

72F clouds and sun in Wading River.

 

This weather is delightful.

If I never felt the humidity I felt yesterday all summer long...I would be happy.

 

 

BE7C63B2-223E-4514-8D20-22AD96D08E98.jpeg

...clouds hanging tough..you can see the clearing the further north you go..beach goers hoping that high pressure

wins out...clouds and rain not that far off to our south.

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You know that there is an extreme -NAO pattern in June when we can’t reach the 90’s with a 588 DM ridge.

 

CAA9C0D0-2251-4838-AE2A-CE26E9F2A965.thumb.png.ec2e1ea32cbb9b86fe8e12d79592c0ca.png

2770FD8E-1486-4AEE-BF82-F3BBD49B2E2A.thumb.gif.33aa63747e86ef686631d74ab6fee1d9.gif

 

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