Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Never thought Long Beach would be the place for storms, but it was nasty here and got drenched. I thought my move to the north shore would help me with severe a little, but Huntington hasn’t gotten anything so far this spring/summer and I mean anything. 

We had some storms earlier in the spring. Maybe you missed those?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The historic heat wave that has been affecting western Europe centered on France and Spain abated somewhat today. Nevertheless, daily and, in some cases, monthly records were still matched or broken.

Select high temperatures included: Aurillac, France: 99° (Tied June record); La Heve, France: 97° (Tied all-time record); Le Mans, France: 102° (June record); Logrono, Spain: 108° (June record); Pamplona, Spain: 104° (June record); Pirineos, Spain: 104° (June record); Poitiers, France: 100° (Tied June record); Torrejon, Spain: 106° (June record); Toulouse, France: 104° (Tied June record); Tours, France: 102° (June record); and, Zaragoza, Spain: 109° (June record).

Ahead of the cold front that brought strong and severe thunderstorms to parts of the Middle Atlantic region from Staten Island southward, high temperatures included: Baltimore: 97°; New York City: 91°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 94°; Richmond: 96°; Washington, DC: 96°; and, Wilmington, DE: 93°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July.

The SOI was -25.87 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.946. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and likely beyond it.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. As suggested by the guidance and pattern, the closing week of June has experienced some of the warmest temperatures so far this summer.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 28, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.036 (RMM). The June 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.164.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July.

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 76%. The most likely monthly mean temperature figure is 71.6° (71.5° to 71.7°). New York City also remains on track for 50" or more precipitation this year. With today's 0.08" figure, there is an implied 70% probability of such an outcome this year.

Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The heat has been extremely impressive, probably even more so in central and eastern Europe, at least when you factor in longevity. Warsaw, Poland, for example, is averaging a warmer June than NYC as of the 29th. The June average is 72.3F, a whopping +9.2 above their 63.2 June normal. There were only 8 days with a high temperature below 80, 5 90+ degree days (with the potential for a 6th tomorrow). 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Central Park was 91* finally, I believe.   How about yesterday's all-time high in France of 114.7* !    Broke old record by 3 degrees.   Wonder if it is still the record today?

CI got slammed at 5:30pm.    Must have been .50" in 30mins.,  with decent gusts.    Crowds of course dispersed, but night action still going.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

One of the craziest storms in a while here. Had winds of 50+ mph w/heavy rain, also alot of tree branches down in town with some wires down/power outages etc.

High for the day was 94,picked up 0.57" of rain so far today.

Current temp 70/DP 69/RH 95%

Lots of branches and trees down in my area and a few blocks with no power. Not sure if maybe we had a microburst or something

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the more widespread damage days we've seen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1007 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             FARMINGDALE             40.73N  73.45W
06/29/2019  M0.75 INCH       NASSAU             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED

0352 PM     HAIL             FARMINGDALE             40.73N  73.45W
06/29/2019  E1.25 INCH       NASSAU             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            HAIL WITH SIZE LARGER THAN A QUARTER REPORTED WITH TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LINDENHURST             40.69N  73.37W
06/29/2019                   SUFFOLK            NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN BETWEEN PORCH AND FENCE WITH
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0442 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUTHERFORD              40.82N  74.11W
06/29/2019                   BERGEN             NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            A LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND BROUGHT DOWN ON TOP OF POWER
            LINES WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0457 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W MOONACHIE           40.84N  74.08W
06/29/2019                   BERGEN             NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            A FEW TREES AND BRANCHES TAKING POWER LINES AND A FENCE
            DOWN ON GRAND STREET

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLAINFIELD              40.62N  74.42W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND BRANCHES REPORTED DOWN AROUND TOWN, TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0510 PM     HAIL             ROSE HILL               40.75N  73.98W
06/29/2019  M0.75 INCH       NEW YORK (MANHATTA NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTFIELD               40.65N  74.34W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES REPORTED DOWN IN WESTFIELD

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S SCOTCH PLAINS       40.62N  74.37W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN AND BRANCHES DOWN IN BACKYARD OF
            HOME ALONG RARITAN ROAD

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARWOOD                 40.65N  74.32W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES REPORTED DOWN WITH TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0516 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW PERTH AMBOY JUNCT 40.60N  74.30W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF WEST
            INMAN AVENUE AND CORNELL AVENUE BLOCKING THE ROAD WITH
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREAT KILLS             40.55N  74.15W
06/29/2019                   RICHMOND           NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AROUND GRAND PLAZA WITH TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION                   40.70N  74.27W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE BRANCH OFF A MAGNOLIA TREE BROKEN AND DOWN IN
            UNION

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CRANFORD                40.66N  74.30W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN THROUGHOUT CRANFORD WITH
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARK                   40.62N  74.31W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND BLOW DOWN IN STREET

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW SPRINGVILLE         40.59N  74.16W
06/29/2019                   RICHMOND           NY   NEWSPAPER

            A TREE FELL ON A HOUSE ON WINDHAM LOOP.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTERLEIGH             40.62N  74.13W
06/29/2019                   RICHMOND           NY   NEWSPAPER

            A LARGE TREE WAS BROUGHT DOWN AND BLOCKING MAINE
            AVENUE.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTERLEIGH             40.62N  74.13W
06/29/2019                   RICHMOND           NY   NEWSPAPER

            A TREE FELL ONTO A CAR AT CASWELL AVENUE AND LIVERMORE
            AVENUE. THE ROAD IS ALSO BLOCKED BY THE DOWNED TREE.

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW BAYONNE           40.67N  74.12W
06/29/2019                   HUDSON             NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON JOHN F KENNEDY BOULEVARD WITH TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0525 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND BAYONNE                 40.66N  74.11W
06/29/2019  M57 MPH          HUDSON             NJ   WXFLOW

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KENSINGTON              40.65N  73.97W
06/29/2019                   KINGS              NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON A HOME ON EAST 5TH STREET.

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KENSINGTON              40.65N  73.97W
06/29/2019                   KINGS              NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON KERMIT PLACE BLOCKING THE ROAD.

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BAY PARK                40.63N  73.67W
06/29/2019                   NASSAU             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND LAYING ACROSS BAVYIEW STREET
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF EAST BLVD AND BAVYIEW STREET
            WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0536 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 8 S SEAGATE             40.47N  74.01W
06/29/2019  M60 MPH          ANZ338             NY   MESONET

            60 MPH OBSERVED AT SANDY HOOK MESONET

0541 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND BREEZY POINT            40.56N  73.93W
06/29/2019  M48 MPH          QUEENS             NY   WXFLOW

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW BRIGHTON BEACH    40.58N  73.96W
06/29/2019                   KINGS              NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON SHORE PARKWAY AT CONEY ISLAND
            HOSPITAL WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0610 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH EST 40.37N  73.70W
06/29/2019  M53 MPH          ANZ355             NY   BUOY

            53 MPH MEASURED AT NEW YORK HARBOR ENTRANCE BUOY

0630 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND POINT O`WOODS           40.65N  73.13W
06/29/2019  M46 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW

0631 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 26 S ROBERT MOSES STATE 40.25N  73.16W
06/29/2019  M47 MPH          ANZ373             NY   BUOY

            47 MPH OBSERVED AT LONG ISLAND BUOY 44025

0754 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTPORT                41.12N  73.35W
06/29/2019                   FAIRFIELD          CT   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN OFF OF INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS
            17 AND 18 WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0757 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 ESE ROUND BEACH       41.08N  73.38W
06/29/2019  M40 MPH          ANZ335             CT   WXFLOW

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW SEA BLUFF         41.26N  72.98W
06/29/2019                   NEW HAVEN          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN ON ISLAND LANE NEAR THE WEST HAVEN
            AND MILFORD BORDER

0807 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SOUTH END               41.25N  72.90W
06/29/2019  M60 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   WXFLOW

0807 PM     TSTM WND GST     SOUTH END               41.25N  72.90W
06/29/2019  M60 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   WXFLOW

            60 MPH MEASURED AT LIGHTHOUSE POINT AT 25 FT.

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW NEW HAVEN         41.30N  72.93W
06/29/2019                   NEW HAVEN          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE SPLIT WITH HALF OF THE TREE DOWN OFF OF MINOR
            STREET WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

One of the more widespread damage days we've seen


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1007 PM EDT SAT JUN 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             FARMINGDALE             40.73N  73.45W
06/29/2019  M0.75 INCH       NASSAU             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED

0352 PM     HAIL             FARMINGDALE             40.73N  73.45W
06/29/2019  E1.25 INCH       NASSAU             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            HAIL WITH SIZE LARGER THAN A QUARTER REPORTED WITH TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LINDENHURST             40.69N  73.37W
06/29/2019                   SUFFOLK            NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN BETWEEN PORCH AND FENCE WITH
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0442 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUTHERFORD              40.82N  74.11W
06/29/2019                   BERGEN             NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            A LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND BROUGHT DOWN ON TOP OF POWER
            LINES WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0457 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W MOONACHIE           40.84N  74.08W
06/29/2019                   BERGEN             NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            A FEW TREES AND BRANCHES TAKING POWER LINES AND A FENCE
            DOWN ON GRAND STREET

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLAINFIELD              40.62N  74.42W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND BRANCHES REPORTED DOWN AROUND TOWN, TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0510 PM     HAIL             ROSE HILL               40.75N  73.98W
06/29/2019  M0.75 INCH       NEW YORK (MANHATTA NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTFIELD               40.65N  74.34W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES REPORTED DOWN IN WESTFIELD

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S SCOTCH PLAINS       40.62N  74.37W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN AND BRANCHES DOWN IN BACKYARD OF
            HOME ALONG RARITAN ROAD

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARWOOD                 40.65N  74.32W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES REPORTED DOWN WITH TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0516 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW PERTH AMBOY JUNCT 40.60N  74.30W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF WEST
            INMAN AVENUE AND CORNELL AVENUE BLOCKING THE ROAD WITH
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREAT KILLS             40.55N  74.15W
06/29/2019                   RICHMOND           NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AROUND GRAND PLAZA WITH TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION                   40.70N  74.27W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE BRANCH OFF A MAGNOLIA TREE BROKEN AND DOWN IN
            UNION

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CRANFORD                40.66N  74.30W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN THROUGHOUT CRANFORD WITH
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARK                   40.62N  74.31W
06/29/2019                   UNION              NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND BLOW DOWN IN STREET

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW SPRINGVILLE         40.59N  74.16W
06/29/2019                   RICHMOND           NY   NEWSPAPER

            A TREE FELL ON A HOUSE ON WINDHAM LOOP.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTERLEIGH             40.62N  74.13W
06/29/2019                   RICHMOND           NY   NEWSPAPER

            A LARGE TREE WAS BROUGHT DOWN AND BLOCKING MAINE
            AVENUE.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTERLEIGH             40.62N  74.13W
06/29/2019                   RICHMOND           NY   NEWSPAPER

            A TREE FELL ONTO A CAR AT CASWELL AVENUE AND LIVERMORE
            AVENUE. THE ROAD IS ALSO BLOCKED BY THE DOWNED TREE.

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW BAYONNE           40.67N  74.12W
06/29/2019                   HUDSON             NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON JOHN F KENNEDY BOULEVARD WITH TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0525 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND BAYONNE                 40.66N  74.11W
06/29/2019  M57 MPH          HUDSON             NJ   WXFLOW

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KENSINGTON              40.65N  73.97W
06/29/2019                   KINGS              NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON A HOME ON EAST 5TH STREET.

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KENSINGTON              40.65N  73.97W
06/29/2019                   KINGS              NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON KERMIT PLACE BLOCKING THE ROAD.

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BAY PARK                40.63N  73.67W
06/29/2019                   NASSAU             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND LAYING ACROSS BAVYIEW STREET
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF EAST BLVD AND BAVYIEW STREET
            WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0536 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 8 S SEAGATE             40.47N  74.01W
06/29/2019  M60 MPH          ANZ338             NY   MESONET

            60 MPH OBSERVED AT SANDY HOOK MESONET

0541 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND BREEZY POINT            40.56N  73.93W
06/29/2019  M48 MPH          QUEENS             NY   WXFLOW

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW BRIGHTON BEACH    40.58N  73.96W
06/29/2019                   KINGS              NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON SHORE PARKWAY AT CONEY ISLAND
            HOSPITAL WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0610 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH EST 40.37N  73.70W
06/29/2019  M53 MPH          ANZ355             NY   BUOY

            53 MPH MEASURED AT NEW YORK HARBOR ENTRANCE BUOY

0630 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND POINT O`WOODS           40.65N  73.13W
06/29/2019  M46 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   WXFLOW

0631 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 26 S ROBERT MOSES STATE 40.25N  73.16W
06/29/2019  M47 MPH          ANZ373             NY   BUOY

            47 MPH OBSERVED AT LONG ISLAND BUOY 44025

0754 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTPORT                41.12N  73.35W
06/29/2019                   FAIRFIELD          CT   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN OFF OF INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS
            17 AND 18 WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

0757 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 ESE ROUND BEACH       41.08N  73.38W
06/29/2019  M40 MPH          ANZ335             CT   WXFLOW

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW SEA BLUFF         41.26N  72.98W
06/29/2019                   NEW HAVEN          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN ON ISLAND LANE NEAR THE WEST HAVEN
            AND MILFORD BORDER

0807 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SOUTH END               41.25N  72.90W
06/29/2019  M60 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   WXFLOW

0807 PM     TSTM WND GST     SOUTH END               41.25N  72.90W
06/29/2019  M60 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   WXFLOW

            60 MPH MEASURED AT LIGHTHOUSE POINT AT 25 FT.

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW NEW HAVEN         41.30N  72.93W
06/29/2019                   NEW HAVEN          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE SPLIT WITH HALF OF THE TREE DOWN OFF OF MINOR
            STREET WITH TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

 

Stormlover can I access reports like this one myself ? If so how do I do so thanks in advance,,,,ps it was a wild day in some locations for sure

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like more heat similar to what we just had coming up mid/late this week with a chance of rain/storms. 

 

Mt.Holly:

 

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
   
  Synoptic Overview: 
   
  The mid-lvl low will have cleared the area by the start of the 
  period, and generally zonal mid-lvl flow will then prevail for  
  most of the extended as the area finds itself on the northern  
  periphery of an increasing flat ridge centered over the SE US.  
  Active weather will largely be driven diurnally-driven 
  convection aided by weak convectively- enhanced waves  
  interacting with nearby weak thermal boundaries.  
   
  Specifics regarding precipitation chances are difficult in this  
  regime as precipitation will largely be in the form of diurnal  
  convection with dynamic forcing being weak due to a lack of  
  appreciable height/temperature gradients (and resulting flow). 
   
  Dailies: 
   
  Monday... Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week as  
  high pressure briefly builds in SW of the area. High  
  temperatures will generally be in the 80s (with dewpoints only  
  reaching around 60) with limited clouds, and fairly light winds. 
   
  Tuesday... A weak shortwave will approach the area on Tuesday  
  bringing a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Last 
  night`s 00Z guidance were in fairly good agreement that this 
  system would be fairly weak and arrive Tuesday morning. The  
  Euro and Canadian still retain this solution, however the NAM  
  and GFS have trended slower with the system, holding off until  
  Tuesday afternoon/evening. This would potentially lead to 
  stronger precipitation due to better diurnal-convective timing. 
  Although I added slight Chc.PoPs Tuesday PM to account for  
  these new solutions, generally left higher PoPs (still only  
  Chc.) for Tuesday AM. High temperatures will run about 5 degrees 
  warmer than Monday with winds remaining light. 
   
  Wednesday... Moisture will be on the increase into Wednesday  
  however guidance is not in agreement on if it will yet be  
  sufficient to initiate diurnal convection Wednesday PM  
  (therefore went with only Slight Chc. PoPs) Temperatures will  
  remain warm with highs generally in the 90s outside of the  
  coast and higher elevation areas. 
   
  Thursday-Saturday... Sufficient Moisture (PWATs near or above 2 
  inches, dewpoints at or above 70) should be present by the end 
  of the week to support (at least) scattered afternoon 
  thunderstorms each day. It will also become increasing muggy  
  and heat indices approaching 100 will be possible for portions  
  of the urban corridor Friday and Saturday. On the plus side  
  (after the last couple of days) the organized severe threat  
  looks limited due to very weak flow (at all levels). Given the 
  abundant moisture and weak flow there may be somewhat of a hydro 
  threat, however, it is currently too far out to say for sure. 
   
  && 

Upton:

 

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Region will be on the northern edge of southern ridging, with a
relatively active flow mid to late week. Models signaling
flattening of the ridge this weekend as Hudson`s Bay low begins
to slide into Quebec and exert more influence on Great lakes and
Northeast.

Generally increasingly warm and humid conditions Wed through
Fri, with a low to moderate potential for heat indices to reach
95 degrees for NYC/NJ metro and surroundings Thursday thru
Saturday.

Potential for afternoon convection Thu and Fri. At this
point, the bulk of this convective activity and even possible
MCS`s appear more likely to the south of the area, based on
ridge orientation, but will have to monitor. Better chance for
organized convection may come next weekend with approach of cold
front, but low predictability this far out.

&&
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last day of June with an average of 78degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is finally positive at +0.2[71.5].   June should end at about +0.4[71.7].

First week of July averaging 80degs , or 4.5degs. AN.

71.5* here at 6am.  76.3* by 9am.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8th wettest June on record for Newark. 7 out of the top 11 wettest years have all occurred since 1998.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2003 10.50 0
2 2013 8.74 0
3 2009 7.96 0
4 1975 6.40 0
5 1948 6.19 0
6 1972 6.02 0
7 1952 6.01 0
8 2019 6.00 1
9 2006 5.99 0
10 1998 5.98 0
11 2015 5.90 0
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Stormlover can I access reports like this one myself ? If so how do I do so thanks in advance,,,,ps it was a wild day in some locations for sure

Yep its right on the NYC NWS site in storm reports.  Sometimes it's right on the homepage but then they bury it

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Was you in Williamsburg? Because that’s pretty much what happened to me as well. Literally missed to the north, east and south

East New York.

Now storms are moving into Suffolk from the north but they’ll slide to the east of where I live, and to the west of where I am right now. Another miss lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...