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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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LGA will join the post-solstice first 90 degree day club. Only the 2nd time this decade along with 2014. But we had much less snow this winter.

First/Last Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
1978 07-21 (1978) 91 08-17 (1978) 90 26
1972 07-19 (1972) 90 09-17 (1972) 90 59
1985 07-14 (1985) 94 09-06 (1985) 92 53
1947 07-14 (1947) 90 08-26 (1947) 92 42
1960 07-09 (1960) 90 09-01 (1960) 90 53
1982 07-08 (1982) 93 07-26 (1982) 93 17
2014 07-02 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 91 65
1958 07-01 (1958) 93 08-15 (1958) 92 44
1998 06-25 (1998) 93 09-27 (1998) 90 93
1963 06-25 (1963) 93 07-28 (1963) 93 32
2003 06-24 (2003) 93 08-22 (2003) 93 58
1980 06-24 (1980) 90 09-22 (1980) 91 89
1948 06-24 (1948) 92 08-29 (1948) 95 65
1990 06-22 (1990) 90 08-27 (1990) 90 65

 

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Typical strativective slop here. That “line” dropped a whopping 0.07”.

I know thunderstorms were never in the plan for Long England, but I’d greatly prefer nothing over the sorry ass sky sweat that keeps falling.

I’m just glad we’re finally returning to sunshine and 80’s soon.

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19 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Typical strativective slop here. That “line” dropped a whopping 0.07”.

I know storms were never in the plan for Long Island, but I’d greatly prefer nothing over the sorry ass sky sweat that keeps falling.

I’m just glad we’re finally returning to sunshine and 80’s soon.

.45” on the day so far at the Wantagh meso. Let’s see what the actual front does in a few hours. But this has been the year of the central NJ severe thunderstorm

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

.45” on the day so far at the Wantagh meso. Let’s see what the actual front does in a few hours. But this has been the year of the central NJ severe thunderstorm

I’m at 0.47” for the day, most falling during the early AM.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Central Jersey was closer to Tampa Bay than it is to Long Island in terms of the number of thunderstorms/lightning strikes. It’s not even fair.

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37 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I’m at 0.47” for the day, most falling during the early AM.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Central Jersey was closer to Tampa Bay than it is to Long Island in terms of the number of thunderstorms/lightning strikes. It’s not even fair.

For sure. It comes down to the prevailing SW flow during the warm months. Offshore for them and onshore for us. That changes everything 

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

For sure. It comes down to the prevailing SW flow during the warm months. Offshore for them and onshore for us. That changes everything 

thats good, less expensive electronic equipment damage for me!

I cant wait for this wet pattern to end, I hate living in a tropical rain forest, my house is literally sweating

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Through 9 pm, Philadelphia's 2-day rainfall total was 4.63". That was the most rainfall since 5.18" fell during the September 6-8, 2018 period. A drier pattern appears likely to develop starting tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -19.54 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.757. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.8°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 19, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.688 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.047.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest such an outcome.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 55%.

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Next 8 days averaging 77degs., or 3.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.9[69.2].     Should be   +0.4[71.4] by the 29th.

Better get that first 90* Day here in June.    July starts BN.    About 5 90's is normal by July 01,  I would say.    This is a summer analogue to reaching Jan. 01, with no snow.

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Another day with heavy rains across the area. Just had another heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. While it has been a wet month here, Philly has had an epic June rainfall run since 2003. A remarkable 5 top 6 wettest June’s.

 

C8565C9C-16BA-4B15-9B7C-9024CA5B2E08.thumb.png.1a388e057dfcfed2e357da14d0e5f487.png

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2013 10.56 0
2 2015 8.88 0
3 2003 8.08 0
4 2006 7.95 0
5 1973 7.88 0
6 2019 7.71 10
7 1975 7.57 0
8 1962 7.40 0
9 1969 7.31 0
10 1946 6.69 0

 

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