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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said:
2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:
Everyone in the NYC metro area should at least get in on heavy rain/stronger storms but severe is more uncertain.

I think the marine layer will ruin it. If you look at cape values, they drop off considerably once you reach the coast. If we cleared out earlier this morning that storm would have blown up IMO

Areas east of NYC yes, the city west you should be OK.

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8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

no. there is better instability down there because there has been heating most of the day.

 

2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

South jersey cleared out hours ago so they were able to retain the instability. Most models also had a multi cell storm mode today but they all went linear pretty fast.

Yeah that was why I mentioned yesterday that we needed to clear out by 11 am at the latest or we would be cooked on the severe threat. While the front did go through and we did clear out a bit it happened 1-2 hours to late. Even with all that said we should still have heavy rain/strong storms for the NYC metro which has already been occurring.

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It's clearing out pretty quickly behind this first batch. it'll be important to watch trends over the next hour or two to see if that line approaching northwest jersey makes it here. vis sat does show towering cu building ahead of it, so areas that have been untouched may still get in.

987760496_ScreenShot2019-06-20at4_31_38PM.thumb.png.784e9a653e3abae35e52993a7b62c94f.png

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