June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[forkyfork]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think Newark has a chance to join the no June 90’s by the summer solstice club. It has only happened 10 times before. The last years were 2009 and 2003.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 21	Missing Count
1	2009-06-21	83	0
2	2003-06-21	85	0
3	1985-06-21	86	0
-	1948-06-21	86	0
4	2019-06-21	87	13
-	1990-06-21	87	0
-	1980-06-21	87	0
5	1998-06-21	88	0
-	1977-06-21	88	0
-	1972-06-21	88	0
-	1958-06-21	88	0

depends on clouds and frontal timing next week

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Extracted from my summer outlook; just as an FYI for anyone who thinks the present pattern is antithetical to some forecasters' expectations:

 

The coolest of the three meteorological summer months relative to normal should be June...Residual high latitude blocking may persist for much of June, permitting more frequent trough amplification events in the northern tier of the United States."

 

So, the overall hot summer idea is not in jeopardy with the present pattern. The spasmodic cool-shots in June were expected from my standpoint. 

Except that the blocking is more than residual, June may set another 500mb record for blocking at this rate. 

Can things drastically change by July, definitely, but I've got a feeling this current pattern isn't going anywhere.

And to be clear we're still technically AN right now, so the only thing that's being kept at bay is the high heat maxes.

[Isotherm]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Except that the blocking is more than residual, June may set another 500mb record for blocking at this rate. 

Can things drastically change by July, definitely, but I've got a feeling this current pattern isn't going anywhere.

And to be clear we're still technically AN right now, so the only thing that's being kept at bay is the high heat maxes.

 

1. The definition of, "residual" is remaining; it's not a qualifier for the magnitude of the blocking that was anticipated. There can be residual, strong blocking.

2. Ok. Possibly, but without meteorological reasoning it is difficult to entertain your conclusion and have a higher level discourse. 

3. Yes. I realize this. My forecast was +1 June.

 

[Rtd208]

The models have certainly become wetter over the last 24 hours especially for tomorrow. It would not surprise me if the NWS issues Flood Watches at some point.

[forkyfork]

44 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The models have certainly become wetter over the last 24 hours especially for tomorrow. It would not surprise me if the NWS issues Flood Watches at some point.

2" pwats showing up on the models. hooray

[rclab]

34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

2" pwats showing up on the models. hooray

It’s good to be happy in the rain. It makes drying off a lot easier. As always .....

[doncat]

Onshore flow today kept high temp to 72°.

[forkyfork]

3 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

1. The definition of, "residual" is remaining; it's not a qualifier for the magnitude of the blocking that was anticipated. There can be residual, strong blocking.

2. Ok. Possibly, but without meteorological reasoning it is difficult to entertain your conclusion and have a higher level discourse. 

3. Yes. I realize this. My forecast was +1 June.

 

june 2016 was +.5 at ewr and the second half of summer turned into a furnace 

[Isotherm]

24 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

june 2016 was +.5 at ewr and the second half of summer turned into a furnace 

 

Right -- it's not at all unusual. Here is the progression for my top two analogs -- about +0.5 June, and much warmer July/Aug:

 

 

[donsutherland1]

A system will move through the region tomorrow into Tuesday morning. A general 0.50" to 1.50" rain appears likely across the northern Middle Atlantic region into southern New England. The potential for some higher amounts is possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least mid-June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -0.35 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.874. The blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

On June 8, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.094 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the June 7-adjusted figure of 1.301.

Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 69.3°.

The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently approximately 50%.

[SACRUS]

EWR Jun Departures

2018:  -0.3
2017: +0.3
2016:  +0.3
2015:  -0.4
2014:  +0.4
2013: +0.9
2012:  +0.1
2011: +2.0
2010:  +3.8
2009:  -3.6
2008: +2.9
2007:  +0.3
2006: +0.1
2005:  +2.2
2004:  -0.2
2003:  -3.2
2002: -0.1
2001:  +1.5
2000:  +0.0
1999: +1.8
1998:  -2.4
1997: -1.4
1996: +0.5
1995: +0.5
1994:  +5.3
1993:  +3.4
 

 

 

[NYCweatherNOW]

6 hours ago, rclab said:

It’s good to be happy in the rain. It makes drying off a lot easier. As always .....

At least it’ll be cool rain not the warm humid rain you usually get this time of the year. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

EWR Jun Departures

2018:  -0.3
2017: +0.3
2016:  +0.3
2015:  -0.4
2014:  +0.4
2013: +0.9
2012:  +0.1
2011: +2.0
2010:  +3.8
2009:  -3.6
2008: +2.9
2007:  +0.3
2006: +0.1
2005:  +2.2
2004:  -0.2
2003:  -3.2
2002: -0.1
2001:  +1.5
2000:  +0.0
1999: +1.8
1998:  -2.4
1997: -1.4
1996: +0.5
1995: +0.5
1994:  +5.3
1993:  +3.4
 

 

 

June's become one of those rare near normal months as of late kind of what March has turned into, a +0.5 to +1 month appears likely again this year.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 70.5degs., or about 0.5deg. BN.

Month to date is  +1.8[70.1].     Should be about  +0.7[70.3] by the 18th.

[bluewave]

This would have been an epic KU pattern during the winter. Check out the classic Greenland block westward retrogression. So we get a strong +PNA rise day 6-10.

 

 

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This would have been an epic KU pattern during the winter. Check out the classic Greenland block westward retrogression. So we get a strong +PNA rise day 6-10.

 

@bluewave  what do you feel brought upon this magical return of the Davis Straits block and huge - NAO.  Do you feel it is the warm seasoning blocking due to the interaction between the solar / reduced  surface ice and SST configuration ( ie. the cold pool ) now taking place in the NW Atlantic? 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

@bluewave  what do you feel brought upon this magical return of the Davis Straits block and huge - NAO.  Do you feel it is the warm seasoning blocking due to the interaction between the solar / reduced  surface ice and SST configuration ( ie. the cold pool ) now taking place in the NW Atlantic? 

Maybe it was a link between the potent MJO and final stratospheric warming in April. 

[jm1220]

50 minutes ago, frd said:

@bluewave  what do you feel brought upon this magical return of the Davis Straits block and huge - NAO.  Do you feel it is the warm seasoning blocking due to the interaction between the solar / reduced  surface ice and SST configuration ( ie. the cold pool ) now taking place in the NW Atlantic? 

I will say that it seems likely to me that the tendency towards 50-50 lows and troughs over Newfoundland is due to the cool waters constantly in that region. The cool water is likely helped by glacial melt from Greenland. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Where’s all the rain? Not a single drop on the island!

[matt8204]

57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Where’s all the rain? Not a single drop on the island!

Heaviest is supposed to be later but I wouldn’t mind if a forecast of rain busted for once.

[NycStormChaser]

WPC says this area is likely to see flash flooding this afternoon and into this evening. Latest HRRR has storms basically training over NYC and surrounding areas all evening. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

20 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

WPC says this area is likely to see flash flooding this afternoon and into this evening. Latest HRRR has storms basically training over NYC and surrounding areas all evening. 

That would be great. Let’s keep this summer wet and cool

[RedSky]

Got nicked by a downpour for five minutes before that it's been all drizzle. Hrrrrr is a heavy trace for large portion of Jersey rest of the day and radar would seem to support that. Rainy day not?

 

[NycStormChaser]

30 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Got nicked by a downpour for five minutes before that it's been all drizzle. Hrrrrr is a heavy trace for large portion of Jersey rest of the day and radar would seem to support that. Rainy day not?

 

EDIT: Just realized you said for Jersey, not the entire area. 

Not saying it is going to verify but the HRRR is hardly a trace. It has multiple rounds of heavy showers this evening and spits out almost 3 inches of rain just north of the City into CT. 

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.49" of rain so far today.

Current temp 66

[doncat]

0.79" so far...Foggy now 66°.

[LibertyBell]

On 6/6/2019 at 5:36 AM, etudiant said:

Battery replacement is straightforward and explained in the user manual, with illustrations, so you will have no trouble.

Do note that this unit takes 2 batteries, model RB1290A.  It is good practice to replace them both together, that way there is not one stronger than the other.

The user manual, actually more like the user sheet, is here:  https://dl4jz3rbrsfum.cloudfront.net/documents/CyberPower_UM_CP1000AVRLCD.pdf

Thanks!  I also read that you should use them as soon as you buy them because they lose capacity if you dont!

[doncat]

Quite foggy, surprised no advisory.

[etudiant]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks!  I also read that you should use them as soon as you buy them because they lose capacity if you dont!

They do gradually lose charge over time, but they should recharge properly once plugged in.

The recharge process is not 100% efficient, so the issue is more the number of recharges than the time since manufactured.

[rclab]

18 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

At least it’ll be cool rain not the warm humid rain you usually get this time of the year. 

I always thought bath temperature rain occurred in the tropics or perhaps Deep South. If and when we get into deep heat, and showery rains I’m definitely going to try to feel it. Probably need a gentle rain that drifts down in the already warmer air. As always .....