Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

We will move into early June with another one of our famous repeating weather patterns. Maximum temperature cool down from the last week of May into the first week of June. This looks to be the 4th year out of the last 5 with a cooler maximum temperature at Newark.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature May 25 to May 31
Missing Count
2019-05-31 90 4
2018-05-31 92 0
2017-05-31 80 0
2016-05-31 96 0
2015-05-31 91
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 7
Missing Count
2018-06-07 87 0
2017-06-07 82 0
2016-06-07 87 0
2015-06-07 78

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Feeling once beyond this period and on/around Jun 8/9 we may see more ridging into the northeast. Perhaps the next and for most first chance at 90s.  We'll see if troughing wants to linger near the northeast.

 

test8.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Parts of the Northeast may need to turn on the heat early next week. Near record low 500 mb heights forecast over the region. So more severe potential with such a strong frontal system and steep midlevel lapse rates Sunday.

Very impressively cold upper low will be overhead Monday. Models
suggest 500 mb heights below 545 dam. A check of the SPC
sounding climatology page puts these values near record lows for
3 June. Same with 500 mb temps -25 to -30C and 850 mb temps
around 0C. It will feel decidedly un-June-like with highs
struggling to reach 60 in the Capital District and Glens Falls
area, and 40s and 50s across the high terrain. 

 

35DF3B82-80FB-472E-A9D1-C515F9CA52E1.thumb.gif.e3fa3ca645aa398fdfacf66080b1250f.gif

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Parts of the Northeast may need to turn on the heat early next week. Near record low 500 mb heights forecast over the region. So more severe potential with such a strong frontal system and steep midlevel lapse rates Sunday.


Very impressively cold upper low will be overhead Monday. Models
suggest 500 mb heights below 545 dam. A check of the SPC
sounding climatology page puts these values near record lows for
3 June. Same with 500 mb temps -25 to -30C and 850 mb temps
around 0C. It will feel decidedly un-June-like with highs
struggling to reach 60 in the Capital District and Glens Falls
area, and 40s and 50s across the high terrain.

 

I'll be impressed if highs can stay in the 60s under mostly sunny skies in early June. Lows also forecast to be in the upper 40s, both very rare without a major onshore flow event. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the past 24 hours, forecast models have increased the idea of severe weather in parts of our area tomorrow. It has gone from a completely linear solution to a multicellular one with the possibility of descrete supercells ahead of the main batch. The mid Hudson Valley through New York City is particularly catching my eye. Instability looks good as well. The main threat should be damaging winds with some hail but I don't think we can rule out an isolated tornado in some areas. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is one of those years when the spring pattern continues right into early MET summer. Strong vortex and SST cold pool near New England. This limits the warmth potential for us with a continuing active convection pattern. The 2010’s have been famous for these stuck weather patterns.

 

6607AE01-C516-4AF9-8F0C-B4C4331B224D.thumb.png.1da9190c3a0adae1b56a9d93d8c04dea.png

1F3BB00A-11B9-4184-98E8-6C9B42133599.thumb.png.663e56d6514c4a232e4650ed5c25c30b.png

5847EC19-CE1E-4638-A2C9-4FF97955777A.png.cec6da2b696d595bca5f8437be46605b.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is one of those years when the spring pattern continues right into early MET summer. Strong vortex and SST cold pool near New England. This limits the warmth potential for us with a continuing active convection pattern. The 2010’s have been famous for these stuck weather patterns.

 

6607AE01-C516-4AF9-8F0C-B4C4331B224D.thumb.png.1da9190c3a0adae1b56a9d93d8c04dea.png

1F3BB00A-11B9-4184-98E8-6C9B42133599.thumb.png.663e56d6514c4a232e4650ed5c25c30b.png

5847EC19-CE1E-4638-A2C9-4FF97955777A.png.cec6da2b696d595bca5f8437be46605b.png

Haven't put in the air conditioners yet, and won't need them next week either.  Latest they've gone in for quite awhile.  Usually we get some kind of early season heat, even if it cools down afterward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Yup. We'll have to keep an eye out for descrete cells just in front of linear activity.

Anything that pops on a sea breeze boundary will have ~9C/KM lapse rate to stretch vorticity with, deep moisture, and some low-level spin.  Tube time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Haven't put in the air conditioners yet, and won't need them next week either.  Latest they've gone in for quite awhile.  Usually we get some kind of early season heat, even if it cools down afterward.

It has delayed the first day above 90 at Newark by at least a few weeks. Average first day for the 2010’s has been May 20th. This will be the first time later than June 1st since 2014.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 04-07 (2010) 08-08 (2011) 69
Mean 05-20 09-06 108
Maximum 06-17 (2014) 09-24 (2017) 153
2019 - - - - -
2018 05-03 (2018) 94 09-06 (2018) 98 125
2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-24 (2017) 92 129
2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-14 (2016) 94 111
2015 05-26 (2015) 91 09-09 (2015) 91 105
2014 06-17 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 95 80
2013 05-30 (2013) 93 09-11 (2013) 96 103
2012 05-28 (2012) 91 09-01 (2012) 92 95
2011 05-30 (2011) 92 08-08 (2011) 93 69
2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-08 (2010) 93 153
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...