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Tuesday, May 28th, 2019 Evening/Overnight Convection


weatherwiz
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Depending on how the airmass recovers after morning clouds and precipitation across southern NY and PA Tuesday afternoon and early evening could be fairly active in terms of t'storms; including strong-to-severe t'storms with all hazards at play (isolated tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds). While we will not warm sector here in New England, forecast models show some steep lapse rates moving overhead during the late afternoon and evening and this will promote the advection of some rather decent elevated CAPE (noted by MUCAPES perhaps approaching 1000-1500 J/KG). Very strong dynamics will be present as well. We will have to watch for any convection which develops out west to spill into portions of southern New England, and while the convection will become elevated, the degree of dynamics and elevated will yield the threat for hail with this activity. 

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Tomorrow could become quite interesting in PA. If the airmass can recover after morning/early afternoon showers there is room for moderate instability along with very strong wind shear. With a stationary front over the area, if convection forms in the afternoon it is like to ride along the boundary and will have a ton of wind shear to work with and instability to tap into. 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Warm front moving up into SNH in afternoon with cold front following . Tomorrow is 52 and light rain lol. No one cares about PA . We don’t live there 

There is a surge of elevated instability moving overhead tomorrow evening. Much of CT has a solid chance at seeing t'storms and if the instability is strong enough hail is possible...including severe hail. Thursday doesn't have a severe look really...well not big severe 

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13 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

There is a surge of elevated instability moving overhead tomorrow evening. Much of CT has a solid chance at seeing t'storms and if the instability is strong enough hail is possible...including severe hail. Thursday doesn't have a severe look really...well not big severe 

Any latest thoughts Wiz?

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1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Any latest thoughts Wiz?

Given the satellite presentation I think we'll see widespread convective development across extreme southern NY and PA and this activity will work into western MA and CT during the evening. This activity will become elevated so there is no tornado threat, but hail and gusty winds will be possible. I think it could be quite active with convection down in CT...probably not much in MA outside of western MA

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15 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Think we can sneak into the warm sector down here? Warm front seems to be making progress, but a long way to go. Decent clearing out in PA. Could be a siggy event out there for someone.

It is actually possible the warm front sneaks into extreme southwest part of Fairfield County. In fact, looking over mesoanalysis and latest models the tornado potential may extend into Fairfield county if that is the case. 

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