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May 27-29 Severe Potential

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14 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

It wasn’t insane to say it last night. Velocity couplet and depth of the CC drop suggested it was at least EF4 intensity. Given how little lead time there was to this event (outlook wise), the fact that it was a holiday, and that the area was heavily populated, it could have been worse.

I agree violent tornadoes are extremely rare, but everything in the radar presentation suggested a pretty high likelihood this was one.

The thing I took issue with was the post immediately saying it could be worse than Joplin.  That is a really dramatic statement to make literally minutes after it hits.  Sure, we will get another Joplin or worse someday, but that type of thing comes around very infrequently (from a death toll perspective).  No issue at all with saying it could've been a strong-violent tornado.  The radar indicators were there and the damage pics that have come out tend to back it up.

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1 minute ago, SENC said:

Sincerely hoping I'm posting  this ok..

SPC outlook..

ZZZZactivity_loop.gif

Was just going to ask if anyone noticed the moderate risk in the western sub. :lol:

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5 minutes ago, OhioWX said:

Hearing from multiple reliable sources on twitter that ILN has confirmed EF3 damage in Beavercreek.

Looking at damage reports from that area vs some areas further west (Like Trotwood, Brookville, etc.) damage didn't look as bad there relative to the seemingly harder hit areas. Should be an interesting few days. 

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NWS has confirmed at least EF3 damage in the areas they’ve surveyed so far (BeaverCreek). Matches up really well with what we’ve seen so far.

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The severe potential today has been pushed even farther south with a late morning update.  The moderate has mostly been shifted into Missouri.  A couple days ago models had the warm front through Ames and Cedar Rapids.  Instead, it's well down in Missouri because of yesterday's strong disturbance and today's rain blob.  Much of Iowa is stuck in the 50s.

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
229 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

INC067-281845-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-190528T1845Z/
Howard IN-
229 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN HOWARD COUNTY...

At 228 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Windfall, or 8
miles east of Kokomo, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Greentown.

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EF3s confirmed in Celina, Trotwood, Beavercreek. Work now on going in the Dayton area to determine if there were multiple tornadoes or if it was just one continuous one. Also, haven’t seen a rating for the Brookville area yet, but they took a significant hit, as did the areas around Shiloh previously mentioned.     

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Radar getting active, especially tornadic cells in Western PA.

I'm a little surprised the SPC keeps giving only "slight" risks to storms that clearly have much higher potential to turn violent fast.

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Tornado watch up covering the moderate risk area.

 

WW0275 Radar

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 275
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   155 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northeastern Kansas
     Northwestern Missouri

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely

   SUMMARY...Initially elevated storms could become rooted near the
   surface along a slow-moving front from northeastern Kansas into
   northern Missouri this afternoon.  Additional storms are expected to
   form and spread northeastward into the watch area from the southwest
   by mid-late afternoon.  Supercells are expected with very large hail
   and potentially a few tornadoes, especially with storms able move
   along the front.  Upscale growth into a cluster is also possible
   late this afternoon/evening, with an increasing threat for damaging
   winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 35 miles south southeast of
   Kirksville MO to 25 miles south southwest of Manhattan KS. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

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Well, I achieved my bucket list goal of seeing a confirmed tornado on Memorial Day.  Went up to Highland IN to see my cousin and we were in an afternoon performance at a movie theater in Schererville IN.  About 4:30 central time they stopped the film, turned on the lights and told everyone to evacuate the theater because of a tornado warning.  My cousin and I were parked on the east side of the building and when we looked out I could see a funnel cloud to the west.  I told her to drive south on 41.  As we did so I could look west and see some debris at the base of the funnel.  We went on to the St. John police station.  No rain there.  Many personnel were outside in the lot looking north along with many people in nearby homes in their yards.   The police gave us an update since we didn't have a smart phone with us.  We slowly drove back north on 41.  Police with the flashers on were stopped on 41 at the tops of bridges looking nw and north.  The tornado did touch town in the Dyer area as Hoosier has reported earlier in this thread.  I haven't seen the rating yet but from photos and damage reports I have seen I would guess it was an EF-0 or EF-1.   Now to worry about this afternoon and tonight since I am back home in Fortville just ne of Indpls.

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Remember how we had a moderate risk for tornadoes near KC earlier? Well, if the storm mode maintains itself, one might be needed across PA. Several discrete supercells already. Would be willing to bet this performs more like the enhanced risk we have in the plains.

A906E307-FA28-4D20-B8C8-FE15C5705C16.png

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1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Remember how we had a moderate risk for tornadoes near KC earlier? Well, if the storm mode maintains itself, one might be needed across PA. Several discrete supercells already. Would be willing to bet this performs more like the enhanced risk we have in the plains.

A906E307-FA28-4D20-B8C8-FE15C5705C16.png

Well, we have seen the last few weeks that you don't need a moderate or high risk to get a bunch of tornadoes. 

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Remember how we had a moderate risk for tornadoes near KC earlier? Well, if the storm mode maintains itself, one might be needed across PA. Several discrete supercells already. Would be willing to bet this performs more like the enhanced risk we have in the plains.
A906E307-FA28-4D20-B8C8-FE15C5705C16.thumb.png.8814ef1f2c4ceae0040418be1d7d8a29.png

Absurd weather man.

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

Well, I achieved my bucket list goal of seeing a confirmed tornado on Memorial Day.  Went up to Highland IN to see my cousin and we were in an afternoon performance at a movie theater in Schererville IN.  About 4:30 central time they stopped the film, turned on the lights and told everyone to evacuate the theater because of a tornado warning.  My cousin and I were parked on the east side of the building and when we looked out I could see a funnel cloud to the west.  I told her to drive south on 41.  As we did so I could look west and see some debris at the base of the funnel.  We went on to the St. John police station.  No rain there.  Many personnel were outside in the lot looking north along with many people in nearby homes in their yards.   The police gave us an update since we didn't have a smart phone with us.  We slowly drove back north on 41.  Police with the flashers on were stopped on 41 at the tops of bridges looking nw and north.  The tornado did touch town in the Dyer area as Hoosier has reported earlier in this thread.  I haven't seen the rating yet but from photos and damage reports I have seen I would guess it was an EF-0 or EF-1.   Now to worry about this afternoon and tonight since I am back home in Fortville just ne of Indpls.

Congrats on the catch.  

Looks like they have it as EF0.  Will be curious to see what the path length was because I observed damage west and east of Hart St, though I guess some of it could've been straight line wind.  

Could've been much worse locally.  We both know how developed the area is where that cell tracked.

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25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Congrats on the catch.  

Looks like they have it as EF0.  Will be curious to see what the path length was because I observed damage west and east of Hart St, though I guess some of it could've been straight line wind.  

Could've been much worse locally.  We both know how developed the area is where that cell tracked.

And to think, even though I knew it was an enhanced risk I wasn't even chasing.

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Am concerned about what may happen tonight in central IL and IN.   Once that cluster of cells from Champaign eastward moves out there is sunshine and not too much else over central IL or MO as of yet.  I don't think the storms were enough to produce strong subsidence or stabilize the atmosphere.  I expect tornadic cells to fire soon sw of Topeka and KC area and move ne in the moderate risk area for this evening and wonder about them maintaining their intensity as they move eastward along the outflow boundary from earlier storms.

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I get nervous when tail-end Charlie of a line is about to pass overhead.

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My mother was on the freeway 5 min ago near Fairlawn and Ghent RD in Summit County, OH and said there was nasty hail and some signs of damage with branches, ect. Headed to me now.

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It's a little outside the subforum, but there's a strong tornado scraping the southeast corner of Lawrence, KS, headed toward the northwestern KC area.

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