June 2019 Discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

And gefs say what heat to start July? Eura getting it’s booty slapped. 

[moneypitmike]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro caved to the NAM, all those Nam sells yesterday look to be in trouble judging by radar

Certainly south of the Pike looks at risk.  It might get blocked getting north of there.  That said, I'd like some rain so I don't need to water.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Certainly south of the Pike looks at risk.  It might get blocked getting north of there.  That said, I'd like some rain so I don't need to water.

Half inch for you

[Baroclinic Zone]

we wet

[Damage In Tolland]

GEFS? Oh man 

[moneypitmike]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Half inch for you

I'd be thrilled.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GEFS? Oh man 

Better track record than your boy Cranky?

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That persistent cold pool will temper any sort of high heat. I'd be very cautious about LR models that depict any sort of high and especially sustained heat.  

Perhaps for the coastline but typically we're dealing with a more westerly flow when talking about high heat so not sure that cold pool would have any impact on the entire region...plus it really won't take much for the temps to moderate. 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Perhaps for the coastline but typically we're dealing with a more westerly flow when talking about high heat so not sure that cold pool would have any impact on the entire region...plus it really won't take much for the temps to moderate. 

Keep a persistent 50/50ish low out there over below normal SSTs and you’re dealing with backdoor potential equivalent to May. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Keep a persistent 50/50ish low out there over below normal SSTs and you’re dealing with backdoor potential equivalent to May. 

Was there a similar setup in (I think) 2004 or 2005?

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

We step up to typical summer probably a heat wave for the 4th. 

Is it really typical though?  I have no stats to back this, but to go through the end of June with no even transient heat seems strange.  ORH has had 1 +10 day, May 20, since mid April.  

Seems odd. Most years feature one or two “hot” spells before July

[weatherwiz]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Keep a persistent 50/50ish low out there over below normal SSTs and you’re dealing with backdoor potential equivalent to May. 

well that would make sense...when you add in the idea of the 50/50 low aspect but just the below-normal SST's alone I don't think would prevent heat into the region 

[CoastalWx]

It's not typical. We have had a lack of 85+ days for sure. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not typical. We have had a lack of 85+ days for sure. 

I have not installed...living dangerously 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I have not installed...living dangerously 

Same here. Might be warm for a couple of days next week though.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not typical. We have had a lack of 85+ days for sure. 

The Travelers Golf Tournament in Cromwell CT this weekend usually is in the 90s. A couple years ago it was played extreme heat pushing 100. This year nothing close. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The Travelers Golf Tournament in Cromwell CT this weekend usually is in the 90s. A couple years ago it was played extreme heat pushing 100. This year nothing close. 

This weekend looks great.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’s a reach into your undies and hold your rooster type weekend. 

[Chrisrotary12]

When's the last time anyone heard a rumble of thunder?  Can't even buy a dying MCS.

[mreaves]

23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The Travelers Golf Tournament in Cromwell CT this weekend usually is in the 90s. A couple years ago it was played extreme heat pushing 100. This year nothing close. 

I went there with my son that year.  Broiled in the sun.  We only stayed for a few hours before we headed out.  Wasn't any fun in that type of heat

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not typical. We have had a lack of 85+ days for sure. 

Like the graphic Ginxy showed the other day for NWS (Nashua) having one of its latest starts to Met Summer characterized by first day averaging 75 degrees. 

Most of our lows here have been very comfy 50’s. Hard to averag 75 without high heat or high dews .

Maybe next week 

i don’t believe Portland Maine has even averaged a day above 70 so far 

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I have not installed...living dangerously 

Last year our 2 window units just couldn't keep the house cool.  I hate heat and humidity.  Home Depot and Lowe's sold out of AC's as those 70F dews stuck around through Sept.  So this year I was smart  (or not).  I bought a 3rd 10,000 BTU in mid May.  It's still in the box out in the barn.  30 day return period has passed.  I have not hit 80F yet.  That AC might wait till 2020 at this rate

 

[dendrite]

CFS maps are always entertaining.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Perhaps for the coastline but typically we're dealing with a more westerly flow when talking about high heat so not sure that cold pool would have any impact on the entire region...plus it really won't take much for the temps to moderate. 

Plus I've noticed a tendency when dealing with the lay - hoi polloi and general enthusiasts and hobbyest, and even some Mets... to kind of get giddy about colors on these granular products. 

Blue in that context does not mean cold - not that you think so... just in general, that needs to be reminded.   Like someone posted the other day, some D6-14 WPC temperature anomaly product with orange and brown positive departures as a trophy foisting for the onset of summer heat ... wrong...  duh.  F'n thing is only saying a 30 % chance of above normal...  that's not anything really...  I don't, red is warm - woooo!   

Those blues out there ?   0 C anomaly is hot ocean.  Plus, if that's a running average/adjusted climo comparison, that's hotter at 0C than it was 50 years ago at 0C ...  So blue ballz all we want...that's a oceanic basin that is in general neutral positive.  I guess it's negative more meaningfully N of the g-string east of New England ...

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't know ... this doesn't look un-wet for SNE 

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

 

maybe it dries up before getting here...we'll see

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CFS maps are always entertaining.

And the model tends to run off the same KFS grid during the summer so maybe a red flag. 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And the model tends to run off the same KFS grid during the summer so maybe a red flag. 

Freeze for Maple Hollow?

[dendrite]

Just now, dendrite said:

Freeze for Maple Hollow?

lol...that would be an epically short growing season. This guy is a trip.

 

[Spanks45]

Well it has been pouring here of and on all morning....We were running slightly below average for the month, so why not? It looks it might become more convective in nature as the day goes on, maybe some training storms and flash flooding down this way?

[CoastalWx]

Un wet.