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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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It's rare to see a -2 or even -3 SD L/W axis/quasi-closed vortex carve toward the Great Basin out west and actually ....fail to raise OV heights. 

They try to rise, but some kind of -NAO domain exertion is anchoring lower heights into the lower Maritimes ...and that is rasping off/acting as though to 'absorb' heights as they try to build NE.  I say "some kind" because this is persisting in the absence of much identifiable over-arcing ridge/blocking more typical of -NAO at higher latitudes.   The rising NAO in the GEFs is all but totally abandoned at this point ...yet there are still only vague ridging signals among the members.  It would appear that weird permanent vortex over NF is drawing the NAO down for it's own virtue.  interesting. 

It's been going on all spring, too ...  but across this particular set of mid and extended range charts ( unilaterally ) as of late, they are really honing the effect and making it more coherently defined, where heights fall out west.. and stay fallen out east.  :wacko2:.  And it's an atypical behavior and design.  

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I guess it does sort of work it's way out toward a solution that looks more physically plausible ... way out there around D 9 ...10 in the EPS but as others have already noted, that's not been very capable of lasting toward any frames < circa 7 days out. 

By the way, 50 N and the D6 operational Euro has snow levels down to 2,000 feet over the lower Maritimes with a two-stream subsume phased solution that would make many February's blush...  That's bombogen there.. as in < 12 mb in 18 hours. 

While people continue to die in droves in India and Iraq from historic heat no less.   Really quite remarkable. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Matches a gradient pattern from SNE up this way in terms of departures.... but no one would call June a warm month relative to normal to this point.

I think it's been closer to -3F on the mins and -1F on the maxes too. Whenever a rad pit is pulling their neg departures predominantly from the min side you know dews have been low.

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Meh week it appears, leading to a great weekend for the men in suits taking cover photos for next years chamber cover.

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24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meh week it appears, leading to a great weekend for the men in suits taking cover photos for next years chamber cover.

Just looked at the 18Z GFS.  Big shift south at the end of the week.  Keeps the heavy precip south of me.  Thought it was going to be a good soak but now maybe not.

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An incredible summer weekend upcoming. Warm and dry winner. Perfect for bbq, golf, outdoor music venues. or maybe for some; activities such as turning off the lights and slamming the blinds shut. :O

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I think it's been closer to -3F on the mins and -1F on the maxes too. Whenever a rad pit is pulling their neg departures predominantly from the min side you know dews have been low.

Good point.  Like when you see the opposite with neggies on the highs but positives on the mins, you know its been wet/cloudy/humid.

Overall, no complaints at all this month after the prolific rains of May.  We've had 2-3" of rain so far in June but far cry from the 8-9" in May.

 

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23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am starting to get a little frustrated about the lack of severe. WHERE IS THE SEVERE????

Around I-80 south... mostly

Isn't it still a bit early climo wise for New England?

2019_annual_map_all.gif.a55b28f26d1537d7ce5d6e58fae357d2.gif

 

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13 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

0z euro backs off the torch, surprisingly. LR guidance continues to paint the biggest heat to our SW. Your roosters hard at work.

12z EURO continued to want to dig a trough into the northeast every few days.

Up this way there were 2-3 times in the next 10 days it wanted to lower 850mb temps <10C.

I know Tippy has been all over it but that persistent lower heights over the Maritimes just won't let the heat build in here.

I feel like when it comes, it's going to come all at once.  Eventually that trough will disappear and it'll just furnance from the middle of the country up through us.  But until then, this is what we have.

Day 5 trough:

ECM120hr.png.46597f7fee881a142f6f4646511e2040.png

Day 10 trough:

ECM240hr.png.d0fc6d1a75f9085bbac72717a5924530.png

 

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Around I-80 south... mostly

Isn't it still a bit early climo wise for New England?

2019_annual_map_all.gif.a55b28f26d1537d7ce5d6e58fae357d2.gif

 

we're right in the beginning of our climo...our season is probably from like mid-June to mid-July before the curve starts dropping. Usually though we've had some events by now. 

Anyways though...looking ahead the pattern does hint at some solid potential...could become favorable for MCS's at some point. 

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29 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

HFD and PVD both torched >80F today

We take

Nothing says torch like max departures of 0F at BDL and +2F at PVD. 

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t be using any fluctuating op runs to forecast anything. EPS has had a solid heat signal for 4-5 days now end of month into Julorch 

Valid point, but July 1st is 2 weeks away... the next 7-10 days seem fairly similar departures to what we've been seeing, it's that end of the EPS runs in Day 10-14 that looked milder.

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35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nothing says torch like max departures of 0F at BDL and +2F at PVD. 

Iow, no 80's ever again

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You're off your game.

What game? Warm days cool to mild nights, no complaints.

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It actually is progressing on one level.  Tonight on my walk it felt kind of summery.  We’re getting there.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

It actually is progressing on one level.  Tonight on my walk it felt kind of summery.  We’re getting there.

Not speaking for NNE, but it is 12am and 65.6F here. That's a perfect temp, jmo. 85/60,or 65 low is perfect.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks summer-like next week.

We may finally kick those lower heights NE of us out of here. I’m cautiously optimistic.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We may finally kick those lower heights NE of us out of here. I’m cautiously optimistic.

I mean for a couple of days at least.

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atl_anom.gif

That persistent cold pool will temper any sort of high heat. I'd be very cautious about LR models that depict any sort of high and especially sustained heat.  

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