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June 2019 Discussion

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

COC for days on the lalaland GFS.

A model with stretching bias does tend to ablate ridges on the northern arcs maybe?  

It seems it went out of it's way to do the same thing for this period and kept having to correct as we got closer.  Could be remembering wrong... 

But yeah... it's like it's been this way for  18 months really ... now relaying into the same thing with this FV3 upgrade.   Unremarkable run bias'

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sleep tight don’t let the stuffy air bite.

gfs_Td2m_us_16.png

Ahhh .. the old op GFS that showed dry NW flow first 10 days of July last week. Instead we massive heat wave . Noted 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ahhh .. the old op GFS that showed dry NW flow first 10 days of July last week. Instead we massive heat wave . Noted 

massive heatwave???? 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ahhh .. the old op GFS that showed dry NW flow first 10 days of July last week. Instead we massive heat wave . Noted 

Um....euro shows same thing for Jul 1st. So enjoy the coc it’s the only coc you have. 

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9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Look marine influence.  There are some high level streamers as Brian alluded to, but those are over CNE.  Also looks like we have some cumulus clouds form along that marine influence boundary.

Yeah, found out quick when I went to castle island. It was toasty in Dot. I got closer to Southie and could see fog streaming in off the water. Sun is very warm, but very cold breeze when it kicks up here. Looks like it's breaking though. Or trying to. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

A model with stretching bias does tend to ablate ridges on the northern arcs maybe?  

It seems it went out of it's way to do the same thing for this period and kept having to correct as we got closer.  Could be remembering wrong... 

I'm sure the cold biased FV3 GFS is overdoing it. That's like an across the bow shot at d10. It's mostly trolling weenie fodder that I mention it, but the GEFS have been a little heavy with the air in SE Canada during that period with suppressed heights our way.

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26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm sure the cold biased FV3 GFS is overdoing it. That's like an across the bow shot at d10. It's mostly trolling weenie fodder that I mention it, but the GEFS have been a little heavy with the air in SE Canada during that period with suppressed heights our way.

Funny you leveled that comment there.  I've been thinking about that expression lately, and how it may not be a long wait this year before we bona fide one.

Ha, actually... the first requirement for verifying the bow shot is that we actually have to have sustained summer first. 

But, excluding the possibility that this is a Younger/Dryas summer during the inferno of GW for moment .... 

I agree with your thinking here, but also wonder if it may be a hemisphere that is more so being exaggerated by the GFS than it being wrong.  It seems there is something legit about the scaffold of the flow structure and wanting that Maritime weakness to be a semi-permanent "negative node" if you will. I used the expression last week, for lack of better description... but I have noticed that even in the absence of a S/W transient in that region ( or cutting off for that matter ..) the flow just sags as a default.  It's like more an absence of positive geopotential rather than a trough at times... if that makes any sense. 

But that might kick off bow shots earlier than normal... if the base-line keeps up.

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Uh yeah .Do you even look at Euro/ EPS?

 

Yes I do... do you look at anything but twitter for a forecast?

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

cmassive heatwave???? 

He spends all of his waking hours on the net trying to find posts that agree with his thoughts. 

Lets just all agree that a massive heat ridge stretching from Antarctica to the Arctic Circle is going to boil the East coast into oblivion.  Agreeing=less posts by him.....Ok I'll start, July is going to feature 31 days with high temps exceeding 95 with dews approaching 85....

 

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No... wave numbers increase in summer... 

Firstly, not sure what HM and the like are actually referring to/fro'  but,  R-wave numbers are identifiable L/W's   - they consist of a complete ridge and a mass-balancing trough as the total coupled wave space. 

Not sure that's what they are talking about. 

That said, in the summer... the flow becomes "nebular" ... which means it meanders. This happens as gradient weakens over the wash of the hemispheric scope from the normalization of the solar calendar/integration there in... etc etc..  With weaker gradients..there is less velocity and jet structure break down...and concomitantly.. the R-waves become more difficult to define and also increase in numbers...as well, shrink.  

I explained this last week.  

Any other Mets wanna jump in  -by all means.  

 

ahhhh ok I see.

the bolded makes perfect sense and actually just sort of clears up what my confusion was about...along with the opening sentence. As I thought I was looking at it the wrong way and making it way more confusing. 

Forget that post lol

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58 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Yes I do... do you look at anything but twitter for a forecast?

Hey at least you post model images that you found on your own.  For some, it's been years since they posted a non-twitter model graphic...making us wonder if they even know how to find model data organically.  

To be fair, no where in that Twitter post did it say "massive heatwave"....though that was what was interpreted by some.

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What an awesome day out there.  we've got the warm temps, we have the dews, and the cherry on top: severe weather on the horizon (maybe 4th-5th natural fireworks, too). Unbeatable stuff.

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20 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

What an awesome day out there.  we've got the warm temps, we have the dews, and the cherry on top: severe weather on the horizon (maybe 4th-5th natural fireworks, too). Unbeatable stuff.

Yup.  

80/55... Chamber of Commerce Day.

Comfy dews in the valley and temps tickling the low 80s now in the low elevations.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup.  

80/55... Chamber of Commerce Day.

Comfy dews in the valley and temps tickling the low 80s now in the low elevations.

Enjoy the coc. Dews are moderate down this way.

Interesting that the Sox and Yankees 1pm on Saturday, maybe some bangers to interrupt that one.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Enjoy the coc. Dews are moderate down this way.

Interesting that the Sox and Yankees 1pm on Saturday, maybe some bangers to interrupt that one.

They are in London, that's why.  7pm local time start.  

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

They are in London, that's why.  7pm local time start.  

Ah, I forgot that. Haha The schedule just reads @ boston

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8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z EURO doesn't  have the massive heatwave :(

It's over

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