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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Fun for Chicago tomorrow.

NAM has upper 70's and GFS 90 :lol: 

Everything ok bud? I know you’re starving for severe but both programs have Chi pushing 90.

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Everything ok bud? I know you’re starving for severe but both programs have Chi pushing 90.

I am not ok :lmao: 

 

but on second thought...for today they do but not tomorrow. 

 

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25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case. 

Although...there may be a pocket of fairly decent lapse rates as it's a pretty strong cold pool

Was just looking at some of the GFS' point soundings and the SB CAPEs are anomalously large for this region..   Particularly down in PA ... where it approaches the mid 4Ks ... but even up in northern Massachusetts the GFS is sporting nearly 3000 SB CAPE at 18z Saturday. 

The EML question is a good one ... because that would be nice ( for tor enthusiasts..).   But a concern for severe ... with climate-saturated CAPE and lapse rates > 7 C/KM ... hill top triggers might cause things to erupt too early ... in a lower CIN/EML lacking cap

I looked around and didn't see much EML sigs in soundings E of Iowa actually..  Course, I'm not sure the GFS is really good at that sort of thing so that...and these stability indices are all predicated on that models handling.  

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Was just looking at some of the GFS' point soundings and the SB CAPEs are anomalously large for this region..   Particularly down in PA ... where it approaches the mid 4Ks ... but even up in northern Massachusetts the GFS is sporting nearly 3000 SB CAPE at 18z Saturday. 

The EML question is a good one ... because that would be nice ( for tor enthusiasts..).   But also, with climate-saturated CAPE and lapse rates > 7 C/KM ... hill top triggers might cause things to erupt too early ... 

I looked around and didn't see much EML sigs in sounding E of Iowa actually..  but, I'm not sure the GFS is really good at that sort of thing so that...and these stability indices are all predicated on that models handling.  

Actually yeah for Saturday there does seem to be some hints of an EML plume out across PA.

One thing I have noticed though (at least here in the Northeast) is these point-and-click soundings have been generating excessively high dewpoints which of course with lapse rates > 7 and Td's well into the 70's is going to spit out crazy CAPE.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually yeah for Saturday there does seem to be some hints of an EML plume out across PA.

One thing I have noticed though (at least here in the Northeast) is these point-and-click soundings have been generating excessively high dewpoints which of course with lapse rates > 7 and Td's well into the 70's is going to spit out crazy CAPE.

 

 

zactly!

so taken with a grain of salt ...   

i think the EML "threshold" is probably different here than over west Texas...where the change in elevation makes the dry-line very shallow and the CIN/desert heat starts like right off the deck.. But as we move east and the bottom drops away ( ...so to speak ) you get deeper BL build up of heat/theta-e homogenation, so the EML need to be "thicker" to be the cap - 

heh, folks into convective weather types know this but... you want the EML to limit/suppress early bloomers because that allows the sun to really charge that layer below... such that underrunning jetlets and/or veering due to topographical features underneath a CIN breach wipes "Monsons" off the face of the planet. 

Remember that movie, "King Pin" ?  "...I'd sure hate get 'Monson'ed ...' 

Anyway, not that we'd actually want to see that happen of course. 

This has the look ( so far ) as orangey cauliflower heads over the hilly terrain by 11:15 am when peering NW from a eastern MA

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Total of exactly 1.00" by 7 this morning, though nearly all came 6:30-11 last evening with a few fairly heavy bursts.  Month's total now 4.56" and my average thru 6/26 is 4.54".  Had enough early sun yesterday to reach 70 after a chilly 41, making the day 8° BM.  Guessing June finishes about 2° under my 21-year average; have not had an AN month since Sept (nor a lightning strike within 5 miles of home since August.)

heading into peak climo in 3 weeks or so

Peak climo here is more of a lengthy plateau - average daily mean rises to 65.0° on July 9 and remains 65+ thru August 9 without ever quite reaching 66.  Warmest day (at present) is July 29 at 65.94°, but that could shift a few days pending this year's temps.

0.73" here yesterday,  and 7"+ for June, There will be no drought talk up here this year.

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80/60 but with a N wind feels nice. I remember these summers growing up. Gradual step up to typical climo expecting July to wax and wane between uncomfortable and comfortable.

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NAM/GFS MOS both ticked warmer on the 12z cycle ... BDL is 90/90/90 starting tomorrow ...   FIT is 89/89/89...  

could be an 89.5'er type heat wave for the interior.   

Logan seems to be waffling run-to-run with the wind direction off the harbor or wobbling flags from out of Cambridge... it's worth 10 F floppage in either direction - I'm not seeing any abvious BDing so it may be a deal where < 10 miles inland. SFC pp is sort of COL-like so sbreezes are a bet

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2 hours ago, dryslot said:

0.73" here yesterday,  and 7"+ for June, There will be no drought talk up here this year.

Really? I've only got 3.88". New reed switch in the davis, so I don't think I missed any events

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7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Really? I've only got 3.88". New reed switch in the davis, so I don't think I missed any events

GYX is at 5.6”, Figures I jack on rain.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here’s the honest facts son .

 

So CT had the highest totals after you said all of CT would get is a quick shower. Thanks for the info boy.  Day 1 of your heat wave fail by the way

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On 6/25/2019 at 8:53 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like for CT this first slug moves thru this morning and that’s basically it, other than scattered shower . We in we out 

Lol Ct with the highest totals in all of NE, Thanks Eric

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28 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Check on the elderly if that 12z euro roaster comes to fruition.

Yeah...europe has been hot.

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GYX is at 5.6”, Figures I jack on rain.

Thru May I'm pat 19.89" for the year, 1.93" AN, but w/o January I'm 0/32" BN and June should finish at or slightly below its average.  Lots of cloudy wet days but not many of the deluges others have received, at least not until the past 7 days which brought nearly 3".  Didn't make much difference in the Sandy River, as the trees are in full force sucking water from the soil - need 3-4" to have much impact on 4th-order watercourses this time of year.

Just hit 80F.   First 80F of 2019.   

We're tied - we had 82 on 6/10, but haven't gotten any closer than 76 before and after that, and have yet to have a daily mean warmer than 64.5 (82/47) so no CDDs.  Maybe Friday.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol Ct with the highest totals in all of NE, Thanks Eric

They must have moved Groton to RI, That area in CT of the heaviest precip is almost the size of RI................:lol:

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5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just hit 80F.   First 80F of 2019.   

The FARS works wonders there. Days like this you would run a few degrees warmer than me. 81.0° here so you’re under like you properly should be.

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...europe has been hot.

Yeah, just talked to a friend of mine in Hungary, she said it's brutal.

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In Kevin’s defense most of the state was meh. Congrats south coast on the bigger totals.

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Just now, dendrite said:

In Kevin’s defense most of the state was meh. Congrats south coast on the bigger totals.

He had been worried about flooding and having to do Sultan rescues statewide using HRRR :lol:

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i thought the Euro's overall complexion was a tick lower than the 00z ... still overall, a warm look.

either way, it underscores the fragility of that warmth getting this far NE ... I'd say the western OV is the cut-off for higher confidence and anything E of there at our latitude is, to employ a cliche, controlled by butterflies in that look. 

but I suppose the take away is the two-cycle continuity for a exiting Maritime backing - that's been crippling warm enthusiasts...   Even though it hasn't exactly been that cool per se. anyway, it could certainly evolve to more, or less.  

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EPS is just slightly less than a canonical heat dome though...  that's a warm to hot extended out thee 8-billowing into 10 

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