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June 2019 Discussion


weatherwiz
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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's always been a Lyme disease hot bed down there...   In fact, the origin/identification of the pathogenic spectrum began there, in "LYME" Connecticut.  

I think it's interesting that although the disease(s) that are tick borne have been found to focus all over ( really ...), that these hot bed regions seem to concentrate it. Where other regions don't.   Probably the deer and other fauna species that are part of the whole life-cycles ( of which Humans share in that cycle) have over-lapping population .. But, all of that is changing too, because species migration appears to be bring non-native species of ticks to northern regions.  

 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is fairly active tomorrow afternoon. Either way it will be a nice day just some pop-up showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon.

good to see. I know the HRRR has been handling convective activity quite well over the central US/OV/TN Valley this week

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR is fairly active tomorrow afternoon. Either way it will be a nice day just some pop-up showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon.

It was never a slam dunk anyway - if anyone's chiding ...heh. 

I mean, it was always just a sneaky thing...  We have a mlv lapse cold plume with a weak surface trough associated, pivoting through as an exit/encore performance around the back side of that Maritime trough ...so dicey and I agree, it's hit or miss.  NAM's been stalwart refusing to give up on -3 LIs and warm T1 under cold 500 mb temps though.  

 

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Lyme is the least of our worries with these new tick-borne diseases popping up.

yeah...I was more than less trying to intimate that as well.. .

Seems ticks are just an overall, ...exceedingly efficient delivery system for hell-on-earth.  

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Lyme is the least of our worries with these new tick-borne diseases popping up.

Babesiosis is a killer. My former coworker an elderly retired teacher was given last rites until by luck a Dr reviewed her chart and started IV treatments,  the next day she was sitting up in bed. Lyme is brutal however and certainly a huge worry and a brutal disease, don't downplay it

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Babesiosis is a killer. My former coworker an elderly retired teacher was given last rites until by luck a Dr reviewed her chart and started IV treatments,  the next day she was sitting up in bed. Lyme is brutal however and certainly a huge worry and a brutal disease, don't downplay it

Not downplaying it at all.  It's at least treatable.  Powassan is not.

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This is how we like our backside CAA from anomalous exiting deep layer vortexes! 

82 at most sites for a high tomorrow ...with spot towers for weather-nerdology.  

Then Sunday is starting to sneak up as a toasty day.  The FRH grid has T1's of 25 C for Logan on a 290 wind over 10 kts, with RH numbers indicative of essentially 0 cloud.  That's 84 or 85 in the 2-meter temperature ...and it wouldn't shock me if verification adds a tick or two over top.   That's a damn warm day in an overall synoptic regime that 'looks' at a glance like a cool flow - 

This hearkens back to Brian and my mentioning last week that the flow is different.  It's not as cold despite the blocking/vortex still hanging on for dear life.  In fact ... despite the GFS fields, it's MOS numbers are all over climate next week.   Interesting... It seems deterministic weather is more difficult than we think ...  Lord have mercy if we ever do dome this bastard -

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

82 may be tough outside of a runway or two given rather cool aloft and CU field developing, but 75-80 will be common in low spots. Maybe BDL 82 ish.

FRH is also 23 C at t1 tomorrow over Logan ... using the NAM?  risky.  That said, ... it's seeing the backside thickness between 0 and 4,000 k as warmer than we may think - we'll see if it's right.  That could also be contributing to it's LI's being so low. 

sumpin like that - 

also, keep in mind that the flow is very kadabatic tomorrow so we could over perform from that alone

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I contacted Lyme in 1994, it was virtually unknown. I was afflicted by the Babesiosis strain spending 3 days in the fetal position unable to move with a fever of 105. Seriously thought it was over. 2 teenage kids died while I was in South County hospital from the same. I again contacted regular Lyme the next year unknown to me, I thought I had the flu. It passed and I went on with my life. The next summer I developed joint pain so bad I sought help. Luckily for me one of the first Drs to correctly diagnose Lyme treated me. He immediately put me on Doxcycline with a port for regular treatments for 90 days. Gradually I got better but never fully recovered from the arthritis.  Never forget at the time Drs were ostracized by CDC and the medical community for diagnosing Lyme. The govt developed Lyme as a biological weapon at their Fishers Island Plum Island secret animal disease test facility.  The first cases were detected directly across from Plum Island in Lyme Ct. One of the greatest undercover secrets. 

Sorry to hear about the Lyme disease. My cousin contracted it years ago, but thankfully it was caught early and he hasn't had any recurring symptoms. The Plum Island facility I believe worked with anthrax and small pox. I doubt Fishers hosted any biological testing, given the large civilian population. The only military facility left out here is an underground bunker that once stored shells and powder during the days of Fort H.G. Wright and was later employed as a sonar monitoring station during the Cold War. And I think that has been abandoned for quite some time as well. Actually can fit the whole island in the event of a major hurricane, nuclear meltdown/attack etc.

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

8,0000 SBCAPE showing up later on...that's probably about as high as you'll ever see in the states. I think I've seen some soundings from like India before which showed like 10,000-12,000. Something just tickles me about seeing values that high. 

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I have seen a hair over 10,000 J/kg progged in the Corn Belt before... believe it was in Iowa or perhaps Illinois.  Don't believe it was ever observed on a sounding there because it either didn't happen or occurred in between the observation sites.  

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Just now, Hoosier said:

I have seen a hair over 10,000 J/kg progged in the Corn Belt before... believe it was in Iowa or perhaps Illinois.  Don't believe it was ever observed on a sounding there because it either didn't happen or occurred in between the observation sites.  

oh man...that would have been fun if it did.

I would imagine that is certainly possible (or at least close to) in the corn belt...especially later in the summer where the dews can get into the lower 80's and you get temps into the 90's and an EML can advect overhead. I think I've seen LI's around -15 there before

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

FRH is also 23 C at t1 tomorrow over Logan ... using the NAM?  risky.  That said, ... it's seeing the backside thickness between 0 and 4,000 k as warmer than we may think - we'll see if it's right.  That could also be contributing to it's LI's being so low. 

sumpin like that - 

also, keep in mind that the flow is very kadabatic tomorrow so we could over perform from that alone

 If we get a lot of sun it’s probably gonna be 80 to 82 for sure. I just sort of envisioned a lot of CU popping up to temper the clouds but I could be wrong too. 

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This has been the great ass-pack spring/early summer of all time for eastern New England.

Yeah...tomorrow and Sunday in particular will put all this in memory but today is basically a microcosm of the whole last 75 days. everywhere east of the Berks and Whites is indundated... west of there... lots of sun.  

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