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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Why is the NWS forecast "obviously risky" to follow?  

What forecast offers less "risk"?

KFS

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Why is the NWS forecast "obviously risky" to follow?  

What forecast offers less "risk"?

It's risky for some to follow because the NWS usually offers a fair and balanced forecast. Some would prefer  the NWS to offer up  screaming headlines that read" Death Ridge to threaten New England with extremely high temperatures, thousands may  perish" And to have a temp forecast of 107, 105, 109, 108, 111.

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28 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I think some here would find the nearest toaster if this happens...

gfs_T2m_us_54.png

We're in wait for the other shoe to fall... ( I get the feeling) 

Frankly, this entire GFS solution is suspect - it seems to not conform at all when extending a quasi-zonal flow over extended time ranges.  Namely... ridging tends to evolve when post zonal flows.  This isn't just statistics; it's based upon physical equations and why zonal flow --> ridging. 

Having said that... it's possible that what we are really looking at is coincidence more so than failure - so to speak.  There could be some systemic/larger synoptic factors that are suppressing any attempt to grow an eastern ridge as a sort of perpetual offset...? The result is a zonal look but ...looks can be deceiving - it's more like rasping the heights off. 

It wouldn't actually be difficult to assess what those are, either.  For one, the 'inside slider' ( btw, that's a back-office expression for troughs that descend south inland through California out west... ) on previous runs is all but suddenly not there this run.  Basic wave-length arguments gives the model an excuse not to raise heights as much in the east.  

Two, this weird Maritime trough persistence that all models, including the GGEM and Euro are also maintaining, despite the overall +NAO modality.  Should not be there - not at this time of year.  You don't sustain +NAO troughs that by virtue of usual girth and massiveness extend all the way back down into NE in June.  That requires steep gradient and fast flow to stretch the L/W lengths sufficiently ( think winter 1993-1994).  In this case...that is diametrical to raising heights over the eastern seaboard.  Which as far as this whole handling goes... ( and I realize you just couldn't wait for me to right all this tedium :) ) I'm not sure the models really have this right. 

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I may be wrong but the point-and-click forecasts are not human generated. The human generated forecasts from the NWS are within the "Zone Area Forecast" option. I think one way which suggests the P&C is not human generated is by looking at the wind forecasts...sometimes you'll see random ranges like 3-6 mph or 7-11 mph...a human forecaster wouldn't really use such a range. 

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ever since the FV3' came on line as the GFS ...  we've been heading toward a new ice age...  ha!  

 

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28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I may be wrong but the point-and-click forecasts are not human generated. The human generated forecasts from the NWS are within the "Zone Area Forecast" option. I think one way which suggests the P&C is not human generated is by looking at the wind forecasts...sometimes you'll see random ranges like 3-6 mph or 7-11 mph...a human forecaster wouldn't really use such a range. 

Yeah, that has been beaten to death ad nauseam, no real secret

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Nothing but 70's as far as the eye can see, Could be the year of no AC, 68/56°F, Any COC a doodle will dew.

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53 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I may be wrong but the point-and-click forecasts are not human generated. The human generated forecasts from the NWS are within the "Zone Area Forecast" option. I think one way which suggests the P&C is not human generated is by looking at the wind forecasts...sometimes you'll see random ranges like 3-6 mph or 7-11 mph...a human forecaster wouldn't really use such a range. 

None of it is solely human generated.  The P&C is human augmented as OceanWx has said plenty of times...they can raise or lower the temps, sky, POPS, QPF etc but it's still getting spit out as a gridpoint.  

The Zone Forecast isn't entirely human generated either... no one is sitting there typing that out for each and every zone for every 12 hours.  The zone forecast averages the grid points in the zone and smooths it out to make it easier to digest.  

Like a wind speed of 8mph in the grids might yield a P&C of 7-11mph, while the Zone interprets it as 5-10mph.  

But like I know in my zone, it's averaging temperatures from high elevations and the valley because my County has huge terrain changes.  The mean ends up having high temps a bit lower than what I see, and lows are a bit warmer (i.e. the mean of Valley and mountains has a lower diurnal change than the valley sees).  

All of the forecasts have human input but none of them are solely just a forecaster sitting there typing it out for every county in their area.  

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

None of it is solely human generated.  The P&C is human augmented as OceanWx has said plenty of times...they can raise or lower the temps, sky, POPS, QPF etc but it's still getting spit out as a gridpoint.  

The Zone Forecast isn't entirely human generated either... no one is sitting there typing that out for each and every zone for every 12 hours.  The zone forecast averages the grid points in the zone and smooths it out to make it easier to digest.  

Like a wind speed of 8mph in the grids might yield a P&C of 7-11mph, while the Zone interprets it as 5-10mph.  

But like I know in my zone, it's averaging temperatures from high elevations and the valley because my County has huge terrain changes.  The mean ends up having high temps a bit lower than what I see, and lows are a bit warmer (i.e. the mean of Valley and mountains has a lower diurnal change than the valley sees).  

All of the forecasts have human input but none of them are solely just a forecaster sitting there typing it out for every county in their area.  

So your original question was Socratic in nature, gotcha. ;)

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

 The P&C is human augmented as OceanWx has said plenty of times...they can raise or lower the temps, sky, POPS, QPF etc but it's still getting spit out as a gridpoint.  

Seen this many time as it gets adjusted on the fly often.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

None of it is solely human generated.  The P&C is human augmented as OceanWx has said plenty of times...they can raise or lower the temps, sky, POPS, QPF etc but it's still getting spit out as a gridpoint.  

The Zone Forecast isn't entirely human generated either... no one is sitting there typing that out for each and every zone for every 12 hours.  The zone forecast averages the grid points in the zone and smooths it out to make it easier to digest.  

Like a wind speed of 8mph in the grids might yield a P&C of 7-11mph, while the Zone interprets it as 5-10mph.  

But like I know in my zone, it's averaging temperatures from high elevations and the valley because my County has huge terrain changes.  The mean ends up having high temps a bit lower than what I see, and lows are a bit warmer (i.e. the mean of Valley and mountains has a lower diurnal change than the valley sees).  

All of the forecasts have human input but none of them are solely just a forecaster sitting there typing it out for every county in their area.  

yes...should have explained that further but this explanation is very good.

 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yes...should have explained that further but this explanation is very good.

 

It's all from the same database.  There isn't two separate databases, one for Point and Click and one for Zone Forecasts.  It just depends on the two different methods of formatting from what I've seen and what those Mets have said.  

One reads the ORH high temp as 77F with a wind of 9mph... while one will say "Highs in the upper 70s with west wind 5-10mph."

But my point was you made it seem like the Zone forecasts are human and the point and click aren't.  They are equally but just disseminate the info differently.  The forecaster creates the grids and then from there the formatting creates the two different forecast wording.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

It's all from the same database.  There isn't two separate databases, one for Point and Click and one for Zone Forecasts.  It just depends on the two different methods of formatting from what I've seen and what those Mets have said.  

One reads the ORH high temp as 77F with a wind of 9mph... while one will say "Highs in the upper 70s with west wind 5-10mph."

But my point was you made it seem like the Zone forecasts are human and the point and click aren't.  They are equally but just disseminate the info differently. 

gotcha.

I can see the confusion from the statement but that wasn't my intention. 

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

So your original question was Socratic in nature, gotcha. ;)

Ha I just wanted to know why you made it sound like you'd never use the NWS forecasts... like they are terrible and use at your own risk lol.

 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Ha I just wanted to know why you made it sound like you'd never use the NWS forecasts... like they are terrible and use at your own risk lol.

 

I don't have any issue with the NWS forecasts versus others, but I do question everything

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Saturday...

High pressure centers just offshore to our south, drawing
seasonably warm air north. Expect sunny skies and dry air.
Mixing again reaches to 850 mb and possibly a little higher.
Winds in the mixed layer will be southwest around 25 kt, and
some of this will be drawn to the surface in gusts.

The mixing will also tap temps aloft of 10-13C, supporting max
sfc temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s. South to southwest winds
will force an offshore wind in some of the traditional sea
breeze areas, but the wind will be onshore along the South Coast
and parts of Cape Ann, keeping those areas in the upper 60s and
70s.

 

We take Hi 70's into the 80's...summer in summer, like it should be

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS has 850 temps of like +2 or +3 across extreme northern ME on the 26th lol 

We fourth of July!! Cfs but still lol

CFSUS_850_temp_486.png

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Reach for the stars! Maybe frost/freeze and mountain snows for July 4th? Why not.

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Reach for the stars! Maybe frost/freeze and mountain snows for July 4th? Why not.

You should start the July thread, You're batting .1000 for getting snow into New England when you've started one.

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37 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You should start the July thread, You're batting .1000 for getting snow into New England when you've started one.

I am forbidden from creating threads. Honestly, if it didnt snow in NE during April and May I'd be more worried. 

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