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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wiz, we’ve been banging that drum for months but Ditty believes in Cranky, that’s his go to guy. Cranky called for swamp so DIT sucks on his teet until there’s no swamp left to suck.

disgusting

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this thread lol...folks in a summer tizzy

The takeaway: basically six short months until days start getting longer again!

  • Haha 1

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5 hours ago, dendrite said:

46.5°

Last 40s for awhile after tonight?

maybe until December

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s June 14th. :lol: There weren’t any calls for torches this spring. Everything on track . Gearing up for furnace summer 

Do you get secretly angry when you're hiding in your AC'd home, BDL is 97F, and your Davis only peaks at 89.9F?

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think we're looking at that. Now that we're getting into the beginning of summer and towards the heart of summer you can see how the hemispheric pattern is going to be configured. An unseasonably strong vortex looks to remain present at the Pole with seasonably strong ridging across the southern-tier of the country. We will likely remain in the middle of these two gradients which will be characterized by an unseasonably strong and likely zonal jet. 

Perturbations within the configuration will result in shifts of this gradient so we'll get some periods of some "heat" (90+ and high humidity 73+ dews) but this is not going to be a crazy hot and above-average summer. If you're a fan of active patterns though this pattern should be fairly active and we'll have numerous convective possibilities. 

Even in the south I'm not sure if they'll see crazy heat...591dm heights aren't anything to write home about as we move through summer. You start seeing 594+ dm show up...then it can be a different story. 

Just looking at the Euro though we don't even get the 582dm line in here...70's and 80's (as climo climbs so will the temps) will be the theme with this pattern. 

See Isotherms forecast and Don S and Jerry 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Bump away. Morch and Napril were An

Huh? ORH was -1.8F for March. April was a hair above with +0.5F, but the avg max temps were -0.2F.

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This summer won't be impressive unless get a prolonged heatwave imo.. looks like we go deep into June with no real heat.. as most METS in THIS forum are discussing, does not look like we get anything prolonged in the mid term.  Maybe we can get a 1912 9+ days heatwave in boston but once we get past the first 2 weeks of July we don't typically get those extreme heatwaves if my recollection is correct.. a bunch of days in low 90's and high dews are like every year.

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Monthly max temp departures

ORH
Mar -1.6F
Apr -0.2F
May -2.9F

BDL
Mar -1.0F
Apr +0.6F
May -1.0F

PVD
Mar -2.2F
Apr +1.2F
May -1.8F

CON

Mar -1.6F
Apr -0.6F
May -3.9F

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well... for what it's (not) worth - The GEFs -based tele's at both agencies are not just signaling a warm end of month into the first bit of July ...they are doing it with bright coherency - despite the utter lack of support from the either the operational Euro ( which is of course a cross-guidance comparison ) or the GFS for that matter. There is little discord among the individual members at CPC ( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/climwx.shtml ) for positive NAO into by the end of week one extending well beyond...  Meanwhile, the AO is also positive, ...while the PNA is dropping precipitously ..  We should be generating a heat wave pattern here... yet, we only get colder.   This is odd... something is going awry - either this is a modeling issue, or an environmental one... Either way, it is unusual - 

Almost wonder if we don't all the sudden have the Euro arrive one of these times with 600 DAM dome situated over Dayton Ohio ... 

 

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8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

This summer won't be impressive unless get a prolonged heatwave imo.. looks like we go deep into June with no real heat.. as most METS in THIS forum are discussing, does not look like we get anything prolonged in the mid term.  Maybe we can get a 1912 9+ days heatwave in boston but once we get past the first 2 weeks of July we don't typically get those extreme heatwaves if my recollection is correct.. a bunch of days in low 90's and high dews are like every year.

The perennial warmest time of the year for Boston is between the 18th and 24th of July...  Just sayn'

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The perennial warmest time of the year for Boston is between the 18th and 24th of July...  Just sayn'

 

By that you mean? Average for the day or average highs?  

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Huh? ORH was -1.8F for March. April was a hair above with +0.5F, but the avg max temps were -0.2F.

It's not even forecasting, but pretty much straight wishcasting.  If it's warmer than normal in the warm season, the KFS will do well.  Likewise if the pattern is colder and snowier in winter, the verification will be high.

Now if the actual weather doesn't fit the KFS weather preferences, the model will perform very poorly.

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think we're looking at that. Now that we're getting into the beginning of summer and towards the heart of summer you can see how the hemispheric pattern is going to be configured. An unseasonably strong vortex looks to remain present at the Pole with seasonably strong ridging across the southern-tier of the country. We will likely remain in the middle of these two gradients which will be characterized by an unseasonably strong and likely zonal jet. 

Perturbations within the configuration will result in shifts of this gradient so we'll get some periods of some "heat" (90+ and high humidity 73+ dews) but this is not going to be a crazy hot and above-average summer. If you're a fan of active patterns though this pattern should be fairly active and we'll have numerous convective possibilities. 

Even in the south I'm not sure if they'll see crazy heat...591dm heights aren't anything to write home about as we move through summer. You start seeing 594+ dm show up...then it can be a different story. 

Just looking at the Euro though we don't even get the 582dm line in here...70's and 80's (as climo climbs so will the temps) will be the theme with this pattern. 

C'mon man, all you are is a trained meteorologist.....in other words what do you know about the weather??? And the nerve of you by having a dissenting point of view that goes against the vast knowledge of The Oracle of CT.  And you already realize that your knowledge of weather pales in comparison to those forum members who "specialize" in long term forecasting. Anyways thanks for sharing your thoughts but you are not The Oracle. 

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10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

By that you mean? Average for the day or average highs?  

Unless things have changed significantly in the last 10 years or so ...  the high and low moving together along the 100 year average, apex in that week... third week of July... 

There are other factors... Like, Boston is a stupid climate locale due to it's proximity to the ocean.  They should have picked a location over Metrowest ...where population is actually 'touched' by ambient air - I guess it matters to a pilot walking across a tarmac. 

But, that aside... it's like that over eastern U.S. mid latitudes. The perennial seasonal max is then... 

That doesn't say anything about "extremeness" though... It's not impossible that you may get the spurious 110 earlier on...but lengthen 90 to 93 later...  As we know, climate hides extremes.  

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's not even forecasting, but pretty much straight wishcasting.  If it's warmer than normal in the warm season, the KFS will do well.  Likewise if the pattern is colder and snowier in winter, the verification will be high.

Now if the actual weather doesn't fit the KFS weather preferences, the model will perform very poorly.

CON hasn't had a month with an above normal max T yet this year. Dec 18 was the last.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

CON hasn't had a month with an above normal max T yet this year. Dec 18 was the last.

yup .... 

( CON hasn't had a month with an above normal max T yet this year. Dec 18 was the last. ) = current Global statistical outlier ...and an interestingly repeating one going back over the last 20 years, where some ~ 2/3rds of all 240 months that's been the case. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting early July bullseye in the OH valley there. I figured they'd be closer to late July like us with the bit of Great Lakes influence. I suppose it's a source region thing with predominantly a S component around the western edge of the mid US ridge. S TX has to wait for the Gulf temp lag while the OH valley is getting their airmasses from landlocked areas.

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The good news is that the pattern should remain wet and active with thickening dews. No drought talk, yet.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

70's for days and days, except the ones we're in the 80's. Sounds like June

Which ones would those be?

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Which ones would those be?

I don't live on the south shore/coast, you may only hit mid-hi 70s down there while interior or away from contamination is low 80s. Tomorrow, for one.

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If one wants to ride the p/c from Box (which is obviously risky and I don't ever do so, but for argument sake), it's basically 78-83 for highs the next several days for most of SNE

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said:

If one wants to ride the p/c from Box (which is obviously risky and I don't ever do so, but for argument sake), it's basically 78-83 for highs the next several days for most of SNE

Why is the NWS forecast "obviously risky" to follow?  

What forecast offers less "risk"?

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Why is the NWS forecast "obviously risky" to follow?  

What forecast offers less "risk"?

lol I was thinking the same.. I guess accuweather offers less risk lol

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