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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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Just now, dendrite said:

We had a lot of nice weather last June. It wasn't until the final days of the month where the swampazz and brutal heat surged in. It's tough to pull big heat and dews until the solstice. Just like how it's tough to do big cold before the winter solstice.

Even the first week or so in July can be iffy up here, Its after that i start looking towards more summery weather, Mid to end of July thru August is generally the period where we max out on temps

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We may not have high heat or excessively high dews but the second half of the month could be quite active with convective potential. You would have to think there will be potential to eject an EML this way...where that trajectory is remains to be seen...may be south of us...may be over us. 

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

March torch fail, April torch fail, May torch fail, and June torch fail. Maybe July climo will behave and let them be right for once. 

AWT lolz!

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s June 14th. :lol:

And next week looks seasonable at this point with temps in the 70s.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

70’s? Ok

 
Yep.  At this time.  Looks seasonable,  Current P&C forecast.  
 
Today high near 73. 
Saturday high near 78. 
Sunday high near 76.
Monday high near 79
Tuesday high near 77
Wednesday high near 76.
Thursday high near 76.

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s June 14th. :lol: There weren’t any calls for torches this spring. Everything on track . Gearing up for furnace summer 

Keep telling yourself that. :lol:

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s June 14th. :lol: There weren’t any calls for torches this spring. Everything on track . Gearing up for furnace summer 

I don't think we're looking at that. Now that we're getting into the beginning of summer and towards the heart of summer you can see how the hemispheric pattern is going to be configured. An unseasonably strong vortex looks to remain present at the Pole with seasonably strong ridging across the southern-tier of the country. We will likely remain in the middle of these two gradients which will be characterized by an unseasonably strong and likely zonal jet. 

Perturbations within the configuration will result in shifts of this gradient so we'll get some periods of some "heat" (90+ and high humidity 73+ dews) but this is not going to be a crazy hot and above-average summer. If you're a fan of active patterns though this pattern should be fairly active and we'll have numerous convective possibilities. 

Even in the south I'm not sure if they'll see crazy heat...591dm heights aren't anything to write home about as we move through summer. You start seeing 594+ dm show up...then it can be a different story. 

Just looking at the Euro though we don't even get the 582dm line in here...70's and 80's (as climo climbs so will the temps) will be the theme with this pattern. 

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Wiz, we’ve been banging that drum for months but Ditty believes in Cranky, that’s his go to guy. Cranky called for swamp so DIT sucks on his teet until there’s no swamp left to suck.

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s June 14th. :lol: There weren’t any calls for torches this spring. Everything on track . Gearing up for furnace summer 

Oh dont let us bump up the Morch Napril Gibbs posts , please

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wiz, we’ve been banging that drum for months but Ditty believes in Cranky, that’s his go to guy. Cranky called for swamp so DIT sucks on his teet until there’s no swamp left to suck.

Poor Ditty he has fail after fail

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wiz, we’ve been banging that drum for months but Ditty believes in Cranky, that’s his go to guy. Cranky called for swamp so DIT sucks on his teet until there’s no swamp left to suck.

:lol: 

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21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh dont let us bump up the Morch Napril Gibbs posts , please

lol they are all saved in the archive.  

Getting pumped and saying 90F coming, followed by tweets from "Fish".  

The heat will come but it has gotten beaten down handily whenever it showed up on the day 7-10 guidance this spring.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

March torch fail, April torch fail, May torch fail, and June torch fail. Maybe July climo will behave and let them be right for once. 

LOL, I’m not sure what year the incessant heat trolling started, but it’s seems to be pretty much a given at this point.  I guess DIT adding a second account to pile it on was sort of new this year, but it still seems like the same pointless exercise.  Yes… we get it already – the forum needs to be constantly told of the impending heat and humidity, and then due to the stochastic nature of weather, it actually happens 5 to 10 percent of the time. Duh.

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LOL, I just looked back at my dailies.  I've only had 4 days since May 1st go above 80F.

Jun 10 80F

Jun 7 81F

May 26 89F

May 20 85F

Still waiting on the heat

 

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I just realized that the GFSX Mos from last Friday was a SUBSTANTIAL BUST for Oakland for this week...like a SIGNIFICANTLY HORRIFIC BUST.

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

New Jersey woman died of hypothermia yesterday on MWN.... a wind chill of 12F in June.  

At the time of the incident, the summit was reporting 30/30 and freezing rain.

http://northeastexplorer.com/wordpress/mount-washington-hiker-suffering-from-hypothermia-dies/

Sad. Too many people either don't know about the weather extremes or just don't respect that mountain. Last time I climbed it was in early September a few years back. I checked the conditions when I left town at 3 a.m. for the drive up and it was clear and calm on the mountain. When I got to Pinkham and checked in a few hours later it was blowing 70 sustained with a negative windchill and freezing rain at the summit. By the time I got to the base of Tuckerman it was a beautiful day. But coming down that afternoon I passed a group of hikers (I'm assuming from Quebec since they were speaking French) climbing in nothing but tshirts and, in one case, sandals. They apparently were unaware of the highly changeable weather conditions. 

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It's an unusual look.. 

That "Day 8-10 500mb Mean" product over at PSU E-Wall's site showing that vast neutral-positive NAO circulation construct up over the northern arc of the Atlantic Basin, pan-wide..., while simultaneously maintaining a negative geopotential anomaly N-E of Bermuda ...is subtly unusual.  

That's a poor teleconnection; there should be ridging there...  More over, the heights E of 100 W over North America should also be rising more as well.  The operational guidance are even carving out an "inside slider" over California ... en route to establishing at least an ephemeral Great Basin trough axis... while not really raising heights back east to conserve mass.  Something is off... but -  

Some of this may be good ole fashioned pattern-change model instability.  But .. I've also been observing more and more teleconnector failures in recent years ... possibly related to 'you-know-what' .. Unknown, but the fast flow winters that feature wind anomalies ( and this is noted by FAA and commercial piloting et al, too ) is also related.   Meanwhile, we keep registering only modestly above normal temperatures relative to the background GW curve.   India is in a 30-day heat wave, "one of the longest in history" ...   https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/india/india-heat-wave-deaths-intl/index.html Here's the paragraph that I find intriguing if plausibly telling: "...A delayed monsoon has contributed to the prolonged hot weather, arriving in southern India around June 8, seven days later than usual. Northern India is still waiting for its annual rains..."  The circulation engine for the Monsoon happens because of rising air along the foot of the Himalaya's ... which is accelerated in the spring.  Mass conservation draws atmosphere off the ocean regions surrounding the continent... moving copious moisture inland to fuel rains.  Speculating, but ... if the atmosphere is warming top to bottom associated with you-know-what, that mitigates the acceleration in spring, because it caps the instability - the engine doesn't rev up... So, all you have is heat.   Not a bad entry hypothesis for a scientific investigation - usually.. they do come in simpler precepts. 

Anyway, weather and climate 'unusual'-ness everywhere is becoming a lesser commodity.   Our relative temperate climate behavior over mid latitudes of North America, when the rest of the world appears to be bearing greater impacts by perceived causally -related climate changes ... is perhaps an insidious anomaly in its own rite. Namely ...because folks don't usually associate relative quiescence with a problem.  We have calamities... floods in the mid west. Tornadoes...  Hurricanes... etc.. But, separating these from the multi-century frequency/return rates is difficult at best, otherwise an arduous, vitriol -resulting task.   Beating out perennial Monsoonal timing by multiple weeks ... with deadly 30-day heat waves .. might just be easier to differentiate from the background climate.  We don't seem to have that issue in the U.S. as frequently. 

This whole climate debate is like that.  Difficult.  I've opined this to ad nauseam elsewhere... but the paraphrase goes like:  Humanity's failing ... is that it doesn't tend to respond to "threats" it cannot directly perceive through one of the corporeal senses. We do.. .and we are.  But not nearly enough. 

Think long and hard about what that means... and how the insidious nature of climate change, moving apace slower than the daily tactile experience, becomes GW's greatest weapons against us - our own apathy.  While it erodes vitality ...we adjust.  More erosion... more adjusting... So long as that adjusting doesn't interfere with our daily ways and means ... our corporeal senses aren't witnessing a gray-green Hollywood Tsunamis tilting up the horizon, or a continuous lightning producing 10 mile high global Haboob, and we're just too easily inclined to rest in our laurels and assume things will always work out like they always do.   

Until, it erodes the final piece in some other major inextricable factor and you're left without a recourse.  Probably ... a complete phytoplankten species collapse and the ocean's failing to aerate the planet with breathable air ... [ enter myriad of not-impossible-sci-fi-plots here ]

You know, the Noah's Arc parable escapes people ...? The hidden moral to that story is what always mattered, not the absurdity of building a boat to house a male and female of every species in order to repopulate the planet.  I mean, ... duh.  Beyond the obvious logistical impossibility, which precedes the story its self, no. It's about not laughing in the face of, or at, danger... It's about not being complacent.  Abstractly, about not procrastinating simply because you are comfortable now.  In that story, the townspeople ridiculed in derisive humor while Noah's dogged determination persevered through it all..   And his boat bobbed along side the bloated corpses ... Okay, so this ending is embellished...  I'm not even religious, at all really...  

 

 

 

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The overall look is rather strange indeed. I also completely agree that we've seen more and more teleconnection failures recently...too add on to your thoughts (I agree part of it related to the 'you know what') I think part of it too is we had a "false" understanding of them b/c the connections were more "linearly" based...and we've discussed these reasons before so no need to go into length but I'll use the 1995-1996 winter example...b/c that winter featured record snow the thought was weak La Nina's correlated to big winter's here...not true...on a linear correlation level anyways. 

In terms of the lack of rising heights across our neck of the woods I think it has to do with the structure of the anomaly field across the Arctic/Polar region...unseasonably strong anomalies leading to a strengthened jet and perhaps a uncharacteristically (in terms of the season) confluent zone. There is too much chaos going on in the upper troposphere and heights are not being able to respond as they should. 

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