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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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Just now, snowman21 said:

Sun is out now. Perhaps we can salvage a nice afternoon in SW CT.

It looked like yesterday we could get into sun by mid-to-late afternoon. Pretty decent dry slot was advertised on the RH fields 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It looked like yesterday we could get into sun by mid-to-late afternoon. Pretty decent dry slot was advertised on the RH fields 

ASOUT

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nah...usually in this sort of scenario the mid and high deck peals away associated with the loss of deeper UVM ... and as it does it either exposes low level butt pack ...or, it immediately fills in, but either way ... does so below the 700 mb dry intrusion.  

you have to wait for that wave of lp down the coast to move past your latitude and the winds come around and then might break up... probably times for about 8:24 pm

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

nah...usually in this sort of scenario the mid and high deck peals away associated with the loss of deeper UVM ... and as it does it either exposes low level butt pack ...or, it immediately fills in, but either way ... does so below the 700 mb dry intrusion.  

you have to wait for that wave of lp down the coast to move past your latitude and the winds come around and then might break up... probably times for about 8:24 pm

:lol:

I couldn't have said it better.

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been perfect really ... for responsible perspectives, we had tepid swimming pool atmosphere over last weekend under surplus sun, then a beneficial rain earlier in the week ... Then yesterday, more utopia. Now, more beneficial rain...and tomorrow, modeled params point to more serenity in charm.   

It's the perfect balance of watering and life giving sun, in the absence of anything even remotely destructive. 

no one can complain.   enjoy -

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well I'll be -

... if it ain't the Euro, with an actual Sonoran heat release beginning D 8.5 ...arriving in the upper OV D9 ..10 ... Could it be? The day that winter enthusiasts must report for their perennial prison term - 

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In all seriousness ...I'm beginning to suspect - well have for awhile - that we might end the month into early July on the hot side of normals.  How far ...obviously, TBD

But, the we are getting a persistent signal from the GEFs for mass-field changes .. in the less reliable PNA, but combinatory with the -NAO neutralizing gives that all a nod just the same.  And with all the guidance' MJO curves showing some robustness in the right side of Wheeler, I think we could again be sniffing out a pattern modulation - but one that's oriented warmer.  The previous changes modulated away from persistent cloud and low registry precipitation/ cool diurnals but milder nights hiding the misery of it.. .into a similar circulation construct, but just a warm variation.  Which hasn't been bad for us since... We been enjoying nice weather as of late...  Anyway, we see a 3 to 4 day zonal stint of flow across the conus and synoptic 101 is that zonal flows tend to proceed ridges...so seeing the extended Euro do so... and the la-la range GFS flirt with it may not in fact be bad fits.   

 

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In all seriousness ...I'm beginning to suspect - well have for awhile - that we might end the month into early July on the hot side of normals.  How far ...obviously, TBD

But, the we are getting a persistent signal from the GEFs for mass-field changes .. in the less reliable PNA, but combinatory with the -NAO neutralizing gives that all a nod just the same.  And with all the guidance' MJO curves showing some robustness in the right side of Wheeler, I think we could again be sniffing out a pattern modulation - but one that's oriented warmer.  The previous changes modulated away from persistent cloud and low registry precipitation/ cool diurnals but milder nights hiding the misery of it.. .into a similar circulation construct, but just a warm variation.  Which hasn't been bad for us since... We been enjoying nice weather as of late...  Anyway, we see a 3 to 4 day zonal stint of flow across the conus and synoptic 101 is that zonal flows tend to proceed ridges...so seeing the extended Euro do so... and the la-la range GFS flirt with it may not in fact be bad fits.   

 

Today’s storm is the Archambault pattern changer . New , hot pattern upcoming . By late August the wet, mild spring will have been forgotten 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Today’s storm is the Archambault pattern changer 1 . New 2, hot pattern upcoming 3 . By late August the wet, mild spring will have been forgotten 

1 false

2 tentatively true

3 tentatively true

overall grade for interpretation/comprehension...  D-

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Still the western edge of a trough hanging on for dear life over us at d10, but my guess is it would end up much like the one last weekend...probably warm and relatively dry. Eventually one of these warm surges into the upper midwest will get advected our way before getting pinched off. As the arctic sea ice and permafrost continues to steadily recede it seems it gets more and more difficult to get enough amplitude to get mid summer legit cP airmasses in here. Once the meridional aspect shuts off it’s like we flip a switch into heat and dews as the subtropical highs bulge northward. Occasionally we sneak in some shallow cold fronts to take the edge off the heat or maybe provide a decent radiational cooling night or two, but we just don’t get those deeper H5-H10 shots like we did in the 60s through 80s once we get into the first week of July. I’m not sure we’ll ever see July 30s at CON ever again. Looks like 1979 was the last time it happened.

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Looks like some heavy rain for a spell in Billerica 

Yeah, it rained steadily for a short time but not a washout. Now we're left with spotty showers. Windows open and great sleeping weather the next couple nights, no complaints.

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Just now, Dr. Dews said:

Yeah, it rained steadily for a short time but not a washout. Now we're left with spotty showers. Windows open and great sleeping weather the next couple nights, no complaints.

Windows open? :lol:

49.1° with a moderate rain shower rolling through.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Yeah, it rained steadily for a short time but not a washout. Now we're left with spotty showers. Windows open and great sleeping weather the next couple nights, no complaints.

Rain letting up-some brightening-awful day for vacation but fine for work if you’re indoors.

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New, summer pattern coming for the first week of July?  Shocking.  The bravery of going out on such a thin limb...

And then predicting that in 7 weeks time we'll forget a somewhat cooler and wetter than normal?  The boldness is inspiring.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Still the western edge of a trough hanging on for dear life over us at d10, but my guess is it would end up much like the one last weekend...probably warm and relatively dry. Eventually one of these warm surges into the upper midwest will get advected our way before getting pinched off. As the arctic sea ice and permafrost continues to steadily recede it seems it gets more and more difficult to get enough amplitude to get mid summer legit cP airmasses in here. Once the meridional aspect shuts off it’s like we flip a switch into heat and dews as the subtropical highs bulge northward. Occasionally we sneak in some shallow cold fronts to take the edge off the heat or maybe provide a decent radiational cooling night or too, but we just don’t get those deeper H5-H10 shots like we did in the 60s through 80s once we get into the first week of July. I’m not sure we’ll ever see July 30s at CON ever again. Looks like 1979 was the last time it happened.

I like the idea ... You delved more into possible causality then I, but however we get there, ... 'shutting off the meridional' thing is critical in my estimation. 

And it's not so much meridional per se.  it's just that for whatever reason, meridional has doomed eastern N/A this spring.  

I see the impending zonal flow that's getting pretty solid consistency as a plausible attempt to signal that ending...  I could certainly be premature in that assessment, but, like I said, it's a fairly robust signal at both agencies ..CDC/CPC, and the operational tenors are strongly hinting.  

I'm also seeing subtle 'oddities' about our climate that suggest we may be turning into new paradigm ... Not saying no more snow folks...  But, perhaps faster than some think or would like to admit, too.  One doesn't not have to search long and far for evidence.  The web?  Yeah, ..it's incredible useless these days ...as every podunk immoral a-wipe imaginable has in greed multitude managed to turn it into agenda powder keg .. in not a click-a-mouse for petty profit.. Makes it hard to glean veracious information.  But, there are source out there nonetheless... and they discuss peer reviewed sciences regarding species migration ... or in weather/climate its self, the increased 20" snow event frequency ...  increasing +SD dew point days...etc etc... These are all concomitant with warming climate.  

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Windows open? :lol:

49.1° with a moderate rain shower rolling through.

Change to snow soon?

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Rain letting up-some brightening-awful day for vacation but fine for work if you’re indoors.

Another great weekend, though. 

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2 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

New, summer pattern coming for the first week of July?  Shocking.  The bravery of going out on such a thin limb...

And then predicting that in 7 weeks time we'll forget a somewhat cooler and wetter than normal?  The boldness is inspiring.

Mm... not sure to whom you are directing this... 

But, ... the period in question deals with establishing an "above normal" regime...  or not,

I don't believe anyone questioned summer in July 

 

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The good news is the cold, wet start to summer "seems" to be doing a number on the gypsy moths. How are other folks fairing?

"Mr. Gooch said it is too early to tell whether the fungus that is known to kill the moths, Entomophaga maimaiga, is to be credited for dead gypsy moths in spring 2019 — other factors could be in play. The cool, wet weather prevented some of the moth hatchlings from feeding, leading them to starve to death, while others could have been eaten by various insects.

“There are certain areas I’ve been watching and they’ve hatched and they just did not move off the egg mass because it got cold,” he said. “We had a couple of days where it was down in the low 30s after they hatched. Normally, it’s a lot warmer.”

https://www.telegram.com/news/20190610/is-end-near-for-gypsy-moths

gy1.jpg

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3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. The end part of June has been sort of advertising itself as the first real heat look for a bit.  Could be toasty      

Doesn't matter, it's 56F in mid-Jun, summer's back is already broken even if we torch for a stretch.

I feel like this summer has been that lawn mower that takes 30 minutes of dickering before you get it started. 

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12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Doesn't matter, it's 56F in mid-Jun, summer's back is already broken even if we torch for a stretch.

I feel like this summer has been that lawn mower that takes 30 minutes of dickering before you get it started. 

We haven't got to summer yet though..lol, But we start losing daylight in 8 days................:thumbsup:

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We had a lot of nice weather last June. It wasn't until the final days of the month where the swampazz and brutal heat surged in. It's tough to pull big heat and dews until the solstice. Just like how it's tough to do big cold before the winter solstice.

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