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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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The Euro's been onto this for a while - speaking to the straw man in the room... 

The GFS operational on the other hand, it keeps doing everything least imaginable to sop heat from gettting north of the 40th latitude ... particularly as those regions pertain to the northeast regions of U.S. and SE Canada, all f'n spring.  It's like it's been stuck stubbornly in February.  

Thing is ...I'm not really prepared to completely deny it's current cooler eroding of ridges to be honest.  It's been a blocky spring ... so the GFS has been sort of right more than less.  Whenever the GFS creates another blocking nodes say ... north of James bay, its westerlies suppress south underneath, and that ablates the ridges.. which sends an ensemble line of warm scouring cfropas ..if not BDs our way, and that seems to have really verified as the predominating signal since March.  

The GFS continues to ignite blocking nodes up north over Canada and throughout the Greenland rough lat/lons... consistent with the -NAO, notwithstanding east or westerly biased limb.  Euro on the other hand is presently indicating less blocking .. In fact, not really characteristic of that season long persistent trend?   

That trend denial... it probably shouldn't bode too well for warmth and summer enthusiasts over the next 7 to 10 days ... but, it doesn't mean the Euro should be summarily counted out.  The GEFs NAO curve is finally elevated at both agencies... It may be a sign that the GFS is holding out too long too.   I think it's worth the conversation because one model is more temperately characterizing with changeability ...70s...to low 80s with convection chances... While the other model has more of persistent summery look evolving, with multiple days in the mid or upper 80s.  

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5 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I think Brian keeps in touch with him and he is around.  Just doesn't post anymore

Let me bring him back with my post.  He always posts STFU Yoda when he sees my post to him lol

@eekuasepinniW

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19 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The next 2 mos will have some heat potential. As the boundary stalls overhead. I could see at least 4-6 weeks of swamp ass.

How this will be translated by some.

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Agree ...

Like I said earlier, Euro may be too anxious to sans the blocking tendency we've enjoyed since circa March.  It's been a crushing 70 days of -NAO tendency...the likes of which I don't think I've seen since perhaps late Novie thru early Jan 2004  ... Only happening as precisely and exquisitely wrongly timed for summer enthusiasts.. .ha  wah wah -

Anyway ... the Euro's been bucking for much less blocking now some six cycles and counting... Even despite the D10 cold front ( which looks dubious for other reasons) on it's 12z run is doing so in a neutral NAO (hint) ... at this time of year, I'd like to see actually more -NAO for a front that cleaning...

 

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I'll add I kinda hope we can some higher dews soon. Some of my plants would appreciate some tropical temps with higher RH. It's easier to propagate stuff outside too.

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dark-side folks caving to the HHH cravings now that they are inevitable. next week looks suspect for sustained dews but you have to figure we'll see at least two-three days of heavy, robust dews

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44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'll add I kinda hope we can some higher dews soon. Some of my plants would appreciate some tropical temps with higher RH. It's easier to propagate stuff outside too.

pray for the tomatoes and the melons, as well as the sweet potatoes I'm trying this year.

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12 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

dark-side folks caving to the HHH cravings now that they are inevitable. next week looks suspect for sustained dews but you have to figure we'll see at least two-three days of heavy, robust dews

I lived in APF for a year and loved it. I'm not afraid of 95/75...but my chickens loathe it. I've always weenied out here over big heat and 70F+ mins. 7/21-22/2011 was awesome. If there were forums in 7/1995 I probably would've gotten banned from the excitement.

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yet another Coc day, man what a great day. Tomorrow looks brutal

High of 75F off a low of 41F.... just crushing the Chamber days lately. 

June so far at -2.6... average high/low of 72/42, just perfect temp spread.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

High of 75F off a low of 41F.... just crushing the Chamber days lately. 

Same weather down here. Today is the type of weather where you're sitting out on a patio drinking with a woman that has no problem going down on you after a second date.

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice split 

 

Didn't the heart of CT have like .75-1.50" like a day or two ago?  

Cocorahs has Hartford County as seeing .68-1.40" of rain for the past 48 hours.

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Didn't the heart of CT have like .75-1.50" like a day or two ago?  

Cocorahs has Hartford County as seeing .68-1.40" of rain for the past 48 hours.

The CTRV west up to ALB had that yes

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The CTRV west up to ALB had that yes

Ah I thought I saw some good 1"+ in NE CT too like Putnam, Killingly, Woodstock.  I'll have to double check.

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Perfect weather for growing grass coming up with the rainy, cool weather incoming. I've been patching up and thickening my hillbilly lawn as much as I can to make it more presentable on the dry days. 

The trifecta of blood sucking insects has been trying to get a meal out of me the whole time though. Black flies and mosquitoes in the shade, deer flies in the sun. There's definitely a bumper crop of them all too. Remarkably not a single tick or gypsy moth caterpillar though. 

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7 hours ago, dendrite said:

I lived in APF for a year and loved it. I'm not afraid of 95/75...but my chickens loathe it. I've always weenied out here over big heat and 70F+ mins. 7/21-22/2011 was awesome. If there were forums in 7/1995 I probably would've gotten banned from the excitement.

Without rain there is no sun

;/ :D

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