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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Might be a no install year?

We no install and we proud for now.

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's coming...  this is going to grow in time - trust me

 

image.thumb.png.52b6669549ac0ab4762fe1ebca1525f0.png

Is that what you told him?

  • Haha 1

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49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They have no idea what’s about to hit em. Let em wait lol

It will warm up for a few days.. then right back to the same pattern we been in.

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4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

It will warm up for a few days.. then right back to the same pattern we been in.

It's the year without a summer

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53 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The Maritimes low doesn't have me jumping for joy yet.

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You're right? But overall the evolution out beyond D5(ish) across this run is morphing the pattern - for seasonal druthers ... reasons to be optimistic.  Clearly a different hemispheric structure/evolution underway comparing the last 30 to 45 days.  I had mentioned this the last couple of days and I see this run ( and the others for that matter) as continuing along the zygote trend to fill the vertical component of trough depths in general.  I hate to say .. but it's very typical of dying phase 2 MJO, which is modeled ... but ... given to the time of year, it's interesting whether wave dispersion mechanics are that enforcing or if this is just all coincidental..  

I don't even think that look (above) per se is all that bad though.  That trough is transient for one... it's plumbed about to it's greatest latitude and there aren't identifiable over-arcing large synoptic spacing issues that suggest it cuts off and locks down there like recent repeating gyre placements.   Plus, the entire NAO domain space is positive over the western limb - another indicative signal of impending pattern change.   Also, not for not but D10 Euro's tend to over amplify features between 60 and 90W at mid latitudes ... If one observes the flow structure from eastern Ontario to NF on D8...it's hard to identify exactly why the Euro suddenly takes a two-day flattening trend and reverses the wave signature and curves the flow so dramatically like that ... when it's up to that amplitude bias it likes to tail off it's latter run cycles with ...typically it looks like that behavior. It's a subtle bias but the objective observer knows to account for that in either warm(cool) pattern orientations.  

It's just me, but that's a snap shot of a pattern that's changed - granted... you're not arguing that, but just the same ... that pattern changes into one where doesn't have nearly the same implications ( or even confidence ) for cold vomit.  As is, that D10 ( silly I know...) isn't 52 with mank.   In fact, the 850s being so warm like that under tall June sun, it'd be pretty damn warm through about 18z in the interior before the ocean breeze cuts in.  It's like.. that's a BD look in a warm pattern as opposed to a BD look in a cool one... I'll take that.

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That 18 to 24 hour cold shot on Monday offered up by the GFS ( and/or any other models doing similarly ) reminds me of that scene in "Airplane,"  ...where Leslie Neilsen's character is repeatedly smacking a panic stricken female passenger to 'get her under control,' when some other steward or passenger says, "Captain! Captain! You're needed in the cockpit..."  He moves as though to hurriedly acknowledge, but then hesitates ... steps back just to smack her face one last time, before slipping off the scene. 

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heh.. anyway, could be some grapple/noodles bouncing around on elevation car-tops with that.   I'm generally un-impressed by mountain top cold gawk but in June?  Heh, ... we're not like up at 10,000 feat with summit shenanigans like in the Rockies... 

I do think mountain weather is fascinating for its changeability though.  A friend of mine was up around 10 K or higher ...some touristy lodge west of Boulder CO, where you could drive to then day hike elevations out there.  He was telling me about a thunder clap over his shoulder while the sun was shining brightly ...the temp was low 60s or so.. There was a sneaky tower like right there along side the summit ... the structure drifted in and over the course of five minutes they went from light rain, to heavy rain and hail, to heavy snow, to lighter grapple, to light rain with occasional thunder claps..then the sun came back out and the temp was right back up into the low 60s in short order.   

You get the impression ... that type of elevation is like being half way up a cumulonimbus head...right around where the wet-bulb freezing level is... 

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Agree John. It’s a warmer look, but still some potential flies in the ointment. At some point we’ll bust through the maritime muck and flip to heat and dews like we always do. Getting some warmth up to James Bay is a better sign...less ways for the heat to fail. 

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Agree John. It’s a warmer look, but still some potential flies in the ointment. At some point we’ll bust through the maritime muck and flip to heat and dews like we always do. Getting some warmth up to James Bay is a better sign...less ways for the heat to fail. 

Yup..  

June may feature regions of frontal-genesis/frontalysis and migration points that are overall similar ( though I don't believe we see as many "50/50" low deals ) ... but just doing all that some 15 dm warmer in thicknesses everywhere ...particularly notable on polarward side of boundaries/airmasses..   

One is undoubtedly loading up their wise-acre nimrod series 2019 snark cannon with "you mean June is warmer than May..."  but don't bother.  We're talking about a different pattern regardless of time of year.  

But I also... we do play with the potential of the models "fighting" the onsetting signal - I'm not sure that's a real mathematical phenomenon or not, but it does seem at times like there is a blurring period when modes are in flux ...where the models try to play both realities concurrently ... Whatever the cause, that's a palpable observation to me.  I wonder if this could in fact all break more longitudinal/subtropical ridgy ... 

Also, folks that care about this tedium and understanding the synoptics .. ( ha, wow we exist, huh?) ... there is a difference between WAR and other heat sources... Continental midriff heat is definitive compared to WAR nosing in from the Atlantic and perpetuating theta-e rich conveyor around the arc.  One produces more of the 87-91/74 type stuff ... or tends to.  The other is the one that tends to import EMLs/ SW 850 mb heat charged 24C slabs of dragon fart air...  Your "big heat" numbers can come from "Bermuda ridge"/WARing, ... but not likely that your biggest numbers will come from that source.  The 101 rareness is almost always a Sonoran ejection...  I have seen WAR patterns that got infused with SW plateau air ...but that's also an obfuscating rarity. 

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My friend comes down from NH Sunday for the two weeks so we could storm chase around the area...and I took next week "off". Should see some t'storms across NY Sunday and hoping mid-week has something to offer. 

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Interesting ... (  https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/land/hms.html  ) Over the last several weeks of our plaguing pattern ...I've noted at times some nearing freakish warm anomalies wobbling around the 850 mb charts over the NW Territories, concomitant ( perhaps ) with deeper layer tropospheric ridge nodal persistence over those regions of NW Canada.  Now this below...   We can see the muted blue complexion of our "sunny" day out there, and satellite ( https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ) clearly shows a smoke footprint aligning nearly collocated with this product provided by the site above.   ...It's interesting from a sort-of "predictive environment" to assess the warm pattern as plausibly causal/related to the outbreak of the wild fires up in western/NW Canada.    Also... I wonder if these smoke plumes are sufficient to knock a couple ticks off our high temperatures?  

image.thumb.png.e5e61a5d684755f73b0dae84ae9cf47d.png

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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My friend comes down from NH Sunday for the two weeks so we could storm chase around the area...and I took next week "off". Should see some t'storms across NY Sunday and hoping mid-week has something to offer. 

.... Well, if the ensuing pattern plays out accordingly ... we should be seeing more standard seasonal cold frontal events ....   Those with NW flow behind them... transporting 'seasonal cool' followed by a warm air and humidity transports a day ...day and half later, all as opposed to heralding in three days of Labradorian mist/ utter convection damping..

It's no wonder why our "severe season" is in June...  Otherwise, we don't get shit from N flows out of 50/50 cut offs that struggle to warm sector in damming.   

As an aside, I'll tell you... our plight was underscored by watching three consecutive days of severe convection railroad New Jersey while we were "soothed" by 55 F nape mist... It was like setting up a stage for prisoners at Auschwitz  concentration camp, featuring a show about people eating turkey sandwiches.  It's weird ... how the atmosphere is so torturously reminding us that "fairness" is a human conceit and does not actually exist in reality - reality is but an illusion of how we see right and wrong, up and down, .. left and right... all of which is purely contrivance of mutually agreed upon perspectives, that are only agreed upon because from one human being to the next ... we all share 100% < .000000000001% of the same genetic brain.  

But I digress... 

We should be in line for more standard frontal passages once we rid our selves of Monday's ... one last smack in the face trough anomaly.  

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Didn't we just post all that information   :) 

In any case, ...I wonder if NWS MOS' machinery takes into consideration the albedo of smoke in the atmosphere.  There's probably some threshold where absorption vs reflection ...where it's ability to impeded solar insolation effects day-time heating, one would think -

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

.... Well, if the ensuing pattern plays out accordingly ... we should be seeing more standard seasonal cold frontal events ....   Those with NW flow behind them... transporting 'seasonal cool' followed by a warm air and humidity transports a day ...day and half later, all as opposed to heralding in three days of Labradorian mist/ utter convection damping..

It's no wonder why our "severe season" is in June...  Otherwise, we don't get shit from N flows out of 50/50 cut offs that struggle to warm sector in damming.   

As an aside, I'll tell you... our plight was underscored by watching three consecutive days of severe convection railroad New Jersey while we were "soothed" by 55 F nape mist... It was like setting up a stage for prisoners at Auschwitz  concentration camp, featuring a show about people eating turkey sandwiches.  It's weird ... how the atmosphere is so torturously reminding us that "fairness" is a human conceit and does not actually exist in reality - reality is but an illusion of how we see right and wrong, up and down, .. left and right... all of which is purely contrivance of mutually agreed upon perspectives, that are only agreed upon because from one human being to the next ... we all share 100% < .000000000001% of the same genetic brain.  

But I digress... 

We should be in line for more standard frontal passages once we rid our selves of Monday's ... one last smack in the face trough anomaly.  

Sunday continues to look real intriguing just to our west. I was surprised the SPC didn't have at least a marginal risk out. Even as far east as the MA/CT borders

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Sunday continues to look real intriguing just to our west. I was surprised the SPC didn't have at least a marginal risk out. Even as far east as the MA/CT borders

ah I haven't looked very closely at it...  But yeah, just off the top of the head, that's a robust negative anomaly boring its way through the field, with equally impressive acceleration in the mid levels toward the end of day ... I just remember that from scanning/clicking through the 00z charts.  Although 12z GFS continues that look - 

Don't need a lot of classical SB CAPE this, that and so forth **if** the mlv lapse rates get very steep ...collocated with jet entrance, can make things work - it's not atypical for how we get it done in this part of the country.  Different sort of sounding ... windy bowers and stuff.  

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To be fair ... the outlook/idea I pushed across the last couple of days, re bona fide pattern change, was predicated NOT on what the 00z GEFs decided to do.  

Out of nowhere, they start sagging off the NAO anew out there toward week two.   Yeah... it's not impossible ... sometimes these pattern changes come in a bit earlier in the runs than in reality.  It's like there's some detection in the variable values ... decimal-augmented in the physical equations, so shouldn't be ignored but 'when' becomes secondarily variable.  

Or, it's a bullshit mean and it will return to the previous dynamic...that too.   

The other aspect, it could be more of an eastern limb anomaly distribution... in which case, the wave spacing of summer would tend make that less a cooling larger synoptic factor for eastern N/A.  

Fun stuff...  Not big hail and wall clouds and high heat or whatever...but some stuff to check out for fun.  

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41 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

As near as I can call it, those who claimed summer arrived at the start of April have lost a full two months of the warm season.  I feel sorry for them.  Very sad.

It hasn't even been two full months since it's still May. Lol

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Persistent trough over us on that euro run. Those are some potent cold shots for this time of the year.

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Persistent trough over us on that euro run. Those are some potent cold shots for this time of the year.

Sub 0C 850s up here on Tuesday and then again the following weekend in Day 8-10 range.  

The 850 anomalies are pretty nuts.  No way that verified as we've seen the Euro too deep with those troughs many times...but that model argues that any sustained heat is a while off.

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2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

As near as I can call it, those who claimed summer arrived at the start of April have lost a full two months of the warm season.  I feel sorry for them.  Very sad.

But the humidity has been unbearable.

78/53 here today, awful.

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