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June 2019 Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

What a great week for folks on vacation. Envious.

Once the dews sneak up to seasonable levels we're in business to get a few "real" storms firing up. Unfortunately it may not be until the weekend...but at least we're kicking out the bone dry airmass.

We just had good storms w low dews Saturday on cape . 

By Sunday, people were so starved of a warm dry day, they were nearly orgasmic walking around in Dennis 

Sunday w just Summer perfection 

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

The little ones venom is concentrated and more dangerous than the adult ones 

I've read something similar about copperheads, that the young ones' venom is more highly toxic than that of adults.  However, the old maxim "the dose makes the poison" remains true, and the little ones can deliver much less volume.

Edit:  I've also never seen a water snake nearly so dark as the one in the pic.  The hundreds I saw in NNJ always had the red-brown markings, and ones immediately post-shed were frequently mistaken for copperheads, though the latter's color and head shape are radically different.  A website article I checked on water snakes notes they can deliver a painful bite, a fact I learned several times (each bite fully earned) including having a tooth broken off in my thumb.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z NAM is more unstable...  regionally - 

not sure it will/would translate to whatever folks have in mind, but... get west of the marine influence with those RH fields suggests some SB CAPE production under less stable LI's than the previous model cycle. 

I've mentioned this in the past, the NAM isn't a terrible model for convective initialization ... We seem to be teetering for tomorrow, oscillating just above and below neutral buoyancy in the NAM. 

We'll certainly generate some instability and CAPE during the afternoon, however, I think we are really lacking other ingredients. The main s/w and s/w trough sort of opens up and de-amplifies and lifts NE into Canada through MI. Forcing I think will be lacking and the dynamics are pretty meh. Heights looks to be near neutral...varying between slightly rising and lowering. 

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And we all know the models are never wrong in the long range.  And the same person who wants a huge east coast ridge to build for July-Sept is going to be the same person asking"Scooter, Scooter, any signs of the ridge breaking down " come Oct 1....and to be followed by 1000's of posts lamenting the huge east coast ridge as the days head deeper and deeper into autumn and approaching winter. 

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2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We just had good storms w low dews Saturday on cape . 

By Sunday, people were so starved of a warm dry day, they were nearly orgasmic walking around in Dennis 

Sunday w just Summer perfection 

Those were iso 5-minute thundershowers. But everyone has their own perspective. I bet it was nice out there on Sunday.

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

I've read something similar about copperheads, that the young ones' venom is more highly toxic than that of adults.  However, the old maxim "the dose makes the poison" remains true, and the little ones can deliver much less volume.

 

The little ones are also far less likely to stand their ground.

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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s confused. What he does want for dry is huge east coast ridge that’s being modeled for July- Sept. Some trough would be what we’ve seen which is several washouts per week 

Trough axis a bit east of us with NW flow. How's that?

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

We'll certainly generate some instability and CAPE during the afternoon, however, I think we are really lacking other ingredients. The main s/w and s/w trough sort of opens up and de-amplifies and lifts NE into Canada through MI. Forcing I think will be lacking and the dynamics are pretty meh. Heights looks to be near neutral...varying between slightly rising and lowering. 

actually ... after tomorrow the GFS leaves the region in goop marginal atmosphere until the weird looking N-S plunging violation of physics cleans house later in the weekend...  good for TCU side lit towers

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21 minutes ago, geo1 said:

To me today is actually hot even without the dew and humidity. Was not expecting 86 here but that’s where we are at.

 At a glance ... the Davis' in the area tied into the network over at Wonder give the illusion of the modest cool bust on the part of machine-interpretative guidance ... but, this does not appear to be the case at offical NWS sites.  

This happens frequently...  People's backyards, ... town squares and thoroughfares, as well as the way they sensibly feel, are all warmer than NWS' official sites. 

It occurs to me...  MOS is in part climatized - which is to say ... the farther out in time range, it weights climate in... that's supposedly in hopes to stop the MOS from ballooning ( overly depressing ) high and lows in extremes synoptics ... D 7's 'll be happy to throw up a 104 at Caribou Maine if they let it ha..  

Anyway, the numbers averaged for the climate are not taken from the, "people's backyards, ... town squares and thoroughfares, as well as the way they sensibly feel" sources ... So, when the area Mets rely upon the MOS, they are likely to be advertising numbers that are going to seem dimmed compared to where most of civility lurks. 

Good Mets know not to take MOS verbatim but you'd be surprised.  

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I expect better from you my good sir. 

I was serious.  You normally don’t want troffing in the warm season.  And I was quoting what you said-trof along the east coast.  You (and the rest of us) would not be happy.  Sure if it edged east but summertime WAR mode suggests that would retro and have you go to the movies on vacation days.

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Just now, weathafella said:

I was serious.  You normally don’t want troffing in the warm season.  And I was quoting what you said-trof along the east coast.  You (and the rest of us) would not be happy.  Sure if it edged east but summertime WAR mode suggests that would retro and have you go to the movies on vacation days.

Nah. I’ll take my chances. Much better than dewy damp days with clouds, fogs, and continuous rains/storms.

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually ... after tomorrow the GFS leaves the region in goop marginal atmosphere until the weird looking N-S plunging violation of physics cleans house later in the weekend...  good for TCU side lit towers

maybe we can muster up a few pop up cells this weekend...could have nice nice looking structures too. Wish shear was a more favorable orientation 

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