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June 2019 Discussion


weatherwiz
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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You guys in ENE will have billowing clouds and tstorms tomorrow pm. No cocking after  1:00 pm , you north and east as folks run indoors. But Sunday is your cocking day yes .

East of me. I will be able under blue sky watch the billowing clouds, very typical 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The second half of next week may be quite pleasant. Have to watch for embedded s/w in the flow aloft which may yield some shower chances at times but seasonable temperatures and predominately dry weather may be the theme 

or as Kevin reads it

The second half of next week may be quite hot and humid. Have to watch for super high dews which may yield some swamp ____ at times nut unseasonably hot temperatures and humidity will be the theme 

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Monthly Total Precipitation for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
1953 6.28 4.14 11.00 6.04 5.06 0.48 2.76 1.81 2.50 4.91 7.66 5.09 57.73
1954 3.26 3.37 3.33 5.25 13.38 2.78 2.50 5.64 8.31 3.58 5.52 5.40 62.32
1955 0.92 4.11 5.42 4.12 0.99 3.52 4.28 17.09 2.40 6.94 5.68 1.03 56.50
1956 6.99 4.36 5.39 2.94 1.85 2.03 3.32 1.46 5.07 4.39 3.46 6.13 47.39
1957 2.47 1.34 3.38 3.78 3.63 1.62 0.64 1.71 0.35 2.67 5.75 6.58 33.92
1958 9.54 5.87 4.48 7.82 4.45 2.96 3.91 5.37 7.50 4.62 3.35 1.78 61.65
1959 2.72 3.45 5.81 4.44 1.24 8.63 8.12 2.93 0.63 4.60 4.20 4.64 51.41
Mean 4.60 3.81 5.54 4.91 4.37 3.15 3.65 5.14 3.82 4.53 5.09 4.38 52.99
Max 9.54
1958
5.87
1958
11.00
1953
7.82
1958
13.38
1954
8.63
1959
8.12
1959
17.09
1955
8.31
1954
6.94
1955
7.66
1953
6.58
1957
62.32
1954
Min 0.92
1955
1.34
1957
3.33
1954
2.94
1956
0.99
1955
0.48
1953
0.64
1957
1.46
1956
0.35
1957
2.67
1957
3.35
1958
1.03
1955
33.92
1957
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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

or as Kevin reads it

The second half of next week may be quite hot and humid. Have to watch for super high dews which may yield some swamp ____ at times nut unseasonably hot temperatures and humidity will be the theme 

He thinks the entire New England region drifts south  during the spring/summer and it  takes up a position just off the coast of Florida before drifting back north in the fall  and then taking a position to the east of Caribou

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Ha, In todays Lew Sun/Journal:

Summer arrives today but will there be sun?

Since January, rainfall has been 3 inches above normal.
Nearly 50% positive for Lyme?! Wow, didn't think it was that high

.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

May June 2006 May take the cake for wet. Much of area 20-28” those two months. 

For sure but I'm willing to bet the water table is higher now. Any little half inch rainstorm causes stream flooding. In 2006 I'm guessing there was a lot of runoff because we received the rain in a relatively short. Of time.

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5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Nearly 50% positive for Lyme?! Wow, didn't think it was that high

.
 

They're becoming more abundant, Buddy sent me this, Pea soup, Pollen is brutal this year too, I'm sure your boat is experiencing it at the Marina, I use to watch it blow out of the pines across Long Lake like a sheet of green when i was down there, Terrible.

Pollen.jpg

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They're becoming more abundant, Buddy sent me this, Pea soup, Pollen is brutal this year too, I'm sure your boat is experiencing it at the Marina, I use to watch it blow out of the pines across Long Lake like a sheet of green when i was down there, Terrible.
Pollen.jpg.09799130a20ca1017429655256cb7ac1.jpg
Gross. Don't think I'll be boating this weekend. Recovering in Roxbury with some brews

.

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Gross. Don't think I'll be boating this weekend. Recovering in Roxbury with some brews

.
 

You wont want to be on Long Lake or Sebago Lake anyways this weekend, Winds out of the NW 10-20 mph with gust to 30, White cap and some 3-4' ers +, Waves will be crashing on the causeway.........lol

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have been swarmed in the marshes here on the south shore of Long Island. There is an old work depot at Jones beach state park where you have to wear a bee keeper suit to work. I made the mistake once of walking through there without one. I had dozens of bites and looked like a pin cushion. But the worst of all are green flys. 

The "tiger mosquitos", big striped-body ones, on our Topsham lot fronting Merrymeeting Bay could sometimes be confused (the noise, anyway) with the Orions that used to fly out of Brunswick Naval Air Base, 5 miles away.  And as much as I hate deerflies, greenheads are worse.  Many decades back when my dad would take us fishing on Great Bay, out of Tuckerton, NJ, we'd always seem to be at the fish cleaning benches just when the sea breeze died, allowing those aerial sharks free rein.  Slapping at them with hands covered in fish guts was quite entertaining.  :axe:  (Appropriate emoji for greenhead bites)

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Man ... if this was January, one might be thinking we're getting some big snows over the next month

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

Judging by the structure of the prognostic curves over at the sister site hosted by CPC ... I wonder if those CDC tele's are in flux.  The CPC exposes disagreement among the individual members as the curve frays and becomes mop-ended beginning as near as D 7  true in both the PNA and NAO cases.

So, the CDC are prone to change and/or could be doing so.   Which may be true over all, regardless of model and cluster. Lately it seems as though that typology of spring stochastic model/ensemble behavior is still going on ... IN summer.  The Euro's warmish 00z over all complexion once looking beyond .. day three or so, that's just straight up out of correlation wrt the GEFs.  Granted, GFS ensemble mean is a different species than the operational Euro.. but, cross-guidance comparison has its usefulness as agreement is a valuable metric.  Anyway, the GFS operational is as usual not helpful - as though it is April 21st. 

I think for now the course of least regret is to just count on 'buckling' continuing in the 50 to 70th N band around the hemisphere. The hemisphere is sort of split between two bands. It seems that band up N wants to maintain a seasonal oddity of retrograde/blocking that would be unusual for summer months, while S of roughly 40 N there is increasing subtropical ridge strength becoming more coherent - which is more climate appealing than the above. So these two vying for proxy ... prooobably the S wins...eventually... Hard to imagine this much nodal blocking in say ...late July, but stranger things have probably happened.  If/when all that somehow situates its self to allow bigger heat numbers to envelope the Lakes-upper OV to NE regions, it could?  But won't be favored right away.  While the 00z Euro's overall complexion is not impossible, I'd almost plan on future cycles bulging the ambeint front S of our latitudes at any time.   It's an oscillatory pattern really ... 

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26 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Nearly 50% positive for Lyme?! Wow, didn't think it was that high

.
 

I know many people here in CT that recently got lymes disease. Everyone described it as feeling like death. You also have it for life and know people that have had symptoms suddenly reappear a year or so after getting it. Take evey precaution you can to keep ticks off you.

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4 minutes ago, BrianW said:

I know many people here in CT that recently got lymes disease. Everyone described it as feeling like death. You also have it for life and know people that have had symptoms suddenly reappear a year or so after getting it. Take evey precaution you can to keep ticks off you.

There's always been a Lyme disease hot bed down there...   In fact, the origin/identification of the pathogenic spectrum began there, in "LYME" Connecticut.  

I think it's interesting that although the disease(s) that are tick borne have been found to focus all over ( really ...), that these hot bed regions seem to concentrate it. Where other regions don't.   Probably the deer and other fauna species that are part of the whole life-cycles ( of which Humans share in that cycle) have over-lapping population .. But, all of that is changing too, because species migration appears to be bring non-native species of ticks to northern regions.  

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41 minutes ago, kdxken said:

For sure but I'm willing to bet the water table is higher now. Any little half inch rainstorm causes stream flooding. In 2006 I'm guessing there was a lot of runoff because we received the rain in a relatively short. Of time.

 Nothing comes close to that. I was working for a builder and we were trying to make sure a dam holding back water for old cranberry bogs, wouldn’t break. I’ve never seen that much water ever.

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Mmm  ...nice to see those products buuut... with the PNA's overal forcing on the pattern becoming very weak in the summer ( to the point where CDC doesn't even calculate the cross-correlations with the other tele's during JJA ), that positive modality out there may or may not be instructive over North America.  

I like the mean of the EPS neutralizing the NAO though ... for all the mop-ending at CPC and/or inconsistencies over at CDC in handling that particular metric, just normalizing the sumnubitch might not be a bad two week run out. 

All told, weak forcing signaled via those products - which may default us back to oscillatory as well. 

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17 minutes ago, BrianW said:

I know many people here in CT that recently got lymes disease. Everyone described it as feeling like death. You also have it for life and know people that have had symptoms suddenly reappear a year or so after getting it. Take evey precaution you can to keep ticks off you.

I contacted Lyme in 1994, it was virtually unknown. I was afflicted by the Babesiosis strain spending 3 days in the fetal position unable to move with a fever of 105. Seriously thought it was over. 2 teenage kids died while I was in South County hospital from the same. I again contacted regular Lyme the next year unknown to me, I thought I had the flu. It passed and I went on with my life. The next summer I developed joint pain so bad I sought help. Luckily for me one of the first Drs to correctly diagnose Lyme treated me. He immediately put me on Doxcycline with a port for regular treatments for 90 days. Gradually I got better but never fully recovered from the arthritis.  Never forget at the time Drs were ostracized by CDC and the medical community for diagnosing Lyme. The govt developed Lyme as a biological weapon at their Fishers Island Plum Island secret animal disease test facility.  The first cases were detected directly across from Plum Island in Lyme Ct. One of the greatest undercover secrets. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

8,0000 SBCAPE showing up later on...that's probably about as high as you'll ever see in the states. I think I've seen some soundings from like India before which showed like 10,000-12,000. Something just tickles me about seeing values that high. 

 

heh...  I wonder if it is possible to calculate the SB CAPE prior to the detonation of Tsar Bomba, 1961, Soviet nuclear test 

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