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June 2019 Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Matches a gradient pattern from SNE up this way in terms of departures.... but no one would call June a warm month relative to normal to this point.

I think it's been closer to -3F on the mins and -1F on the maxes too. Whenever a rad pit is pulling their neg departures predominantly from the min side you know dews have been low.

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24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Meh week it appears, leading to a great weekend for the men in suits taking cover photos for next years chamber cover.

Just looked at the 18Z GFS.  Big shift south at the end of the week.  Keeps the heavy precip south of me.  Thought it was going to be a good soak but now maybe not.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I think it's been closer to -3F on the mins and -1F on the maxes too. Whenever a rad pit is pulling their neg departures predominantly from the min side you know dews have been low.

Good point.  Like when you see the opposite with neggies on the highs but positives on the mins, you know its been wet/cloudy/humid.

Overall, no complaints at all this month after the prolific rains of May.  We've had 2-3" of rain so far in June but far cry from the 8-9" in May.

 

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13 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

0z euro backs off the torch, surprisingly. LR guidance continues to paint the biggest heat to our SW. Your roosters hard at work.

12z EURO continued to want to dig a trough into the northeast every few days.

Up this way there were 2-3 times in the next 10 days it wanted to lower 850mb temps <10C.

I know Tippy has been all over it but that persistent lower heights over the Maritimes just won't let the heat build in here.

I feel like when it comes, it's going to come all at once.  Eventually that trough will disappear and it'll just furnance from the middle of the country up through us.  But until then, this is what we have.

Day 5 trough:

ECM120hr.png.46597f7fee881a142f6f4646511e2040.png

Day 10 trough:

ECM240hr.png.d0fc6d1a75f9085bbac72717a5924530.png

 

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Around I-80 south... mostly

Isn't it still a bit early climo wise for New England?

2019_annual_map_all.gif.a55b28f26d1537d7ce5d6e58fae357d2.gif

 

we're right in the beginning of our climo...our season is probably from like mid-June to mid-July before the curve starts dropping. Usually though we've had some events by now. 

Anyways though...looking ahead the pattern does hint at some solid potential...could become favorable for MCS's at some point. 

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t be using any fluctuating op runs to forecast anything. EPS has had a solid heat signal for 4-5 days now end of month into Julorch 

Valid point, but July 1st is 2 weeks away... the next 7-10 days seem fairly similar departures to what we've been seeing, it's that end of the EPS runs in Day 10-14 that looked milder.

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