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June 2019 Discussion


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The Euro's been onto this for a while - speaking to the straw man in the room... 

The GFS operational on the other hand, it keeps doing everything least imaginable to sop heat from gettting north of the 40th latitude ... particularly as those regions pertain to the northeast regions of U.S. and SE Canada, all f'n spring.  It's like it's been stuck stubbornly in February.  

Thing is ...I'm not really prepared to completely deny it's current cooler eroding of ridges to be honest.  It's been a blocky spring ... so the GFS has been sort of right more than less.  Whenever the GFS creates another blocking nodes say ... north of James bay, its westerlies suppress south underneath, and that ablates the ridges.. which sends an ensemble line of warm scouring cfropas ..if not BDs our way, and that seems to have really verified as the predominating signal since March.  

The GFS continues to ignite blocking nodes up north over Canada and throughout the Greenland rough lat/lons... consistent with the -NAO, notwithstanding east or westerly biased limb.  Euro on the other hand is presently indicating less blocking .. In fact, not really characteristic of that season long persistent trend?   

That trend denial... it probably shouldn't bode too well for warmth and summer enthusiasts over the next 7 to 10 days ... but, it doesn't mean the Euro should be summarily counted out.  The GEFs NAO curve is finally elevated at both agencies... It may be a sign that the GFS is holding out too long too.   I think it's worth the conversation because one model is more temperately characterizing with changeability ...70s...to low 80s with convection chances... While the other model has more of persistent summery look evolving, with multiple days in the mid or upper 80s.  

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Agree ...

Like I said earlier, Euro may be too anxious to sans the blocking tendency we've enjoyed since circa March.  It's been a crushing 70 days of -NAO tendency...the likes of which I don't think I've seen since perhaps late Novie thru early Jan 2004  ... Only happening as precisely and exquisitely wrongly timed for summer enthusiasts.. .ha  wah wah -

Anyway ... the Euro's been bucking for much less blocking now some six cycles and counting... Even despite the D10 cold front ( which looks dubious for other reasons) on it's 12z run is doing so in a neutral NAO (hint) ... at this time of year, I'd like to see actually more -NAO for a front that cleaning...

 

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12 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

dark-side folks caving to the HHH cravings now that they are inevitable. next week looks suspect for sustained dews but you have to figure we'll see at least two-three days of heavy, robust dews

I lived in APF for a year and loved it. I'm not afraid of 95/75...but my chickens loathe it. I've always weenied out here over big heat and 70F+ mins. 7/21-22/2011 was awesome. If there were forums in 7/1995 I probably would've gotten banned from the excitement.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

High of 75F off a low of 41F.... just crushing the Chamber days lately. 

Same weather down here. Today is the type of weather where you're sitting out on a patio drinking with a woman that has no problem going down on you after a second date.

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Perfect weather for growing grass coming up with the rainy, cool weather incoming. I've been patching up and thickening my hillbilly lawn as much as I can to make it more presentable on the dry days. 

The trifecta of blood sucking insects has been trying to get a meal out of me the whole time though. Black flies and mosquitoes in the shade, deer flies in the sun. There's definitely a bumper crop of them all too. Remarkably not a single tick or gypsy moth caterpillar though. 

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7 hours ago, dendrite said:

I lived in APF for a year and loved it. I'm not afraid of 95/75...but my chickens loathe it. I've always weenied out here over big heat and 70F+ mins. 7/21-22/2011 was awesome. If there were forums in 7/1995 I probably would've gotten banned from the excitement.

Without rain there is no sun

;/ :D

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