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May 23rd Severe Event


NJwx85
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The squall line that ripped through the mid West last night is currently entering Western NY and Western PA and should be here in about 6-8 hours. As the trough digs Southeast, it will interact with the warm moist air coming in from the SW and a strengthening LLJ. In addition, we could see some discrete convection out ahead of the main line or even late tonight after it passes. Although the main threat is straight line wind damage, some areas could see some large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

SPC has placed most of the area in a risk for severe thunderstorms. 

day1otlk_1300.gif?1558620183538

 

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I think we have a pretty good shot at an organized MCS heading through the region today. I would think something similar to last May. Obviously there will be differences in Intensity in any given area. 

One thing is for certain, storms will weaken as soon as they hit the city and marine influence. Luckily I’ll be on the uws for this one with 360 degree views of the entire city. I’ll post pics later 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Timing seems off.  By the time this line of crap gets out of the way, you have rain cooled air and loss of daytime heating....

It clears out rapidly once the squall line passes. The environment over most of PA is very favorable for super cells with strong shear and enough instability to get the job done. Limiting factor this far East is that the storm motion looks to be more NW to SE.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

It clears out rapidly once the squall line passes. The environment over most of PA is very favorable for super cells with strong shear and enough instability to get the job done. Limiting factor this far East is that the storm motion looks to be more NW to SE.

It will be interesting to see if the RGEM solution is right-really pounds eastern PA and parts of NJ especially S of NYC

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It will be interesting to see if the RGEM solution is right-really pounds eastern PA and parts of NJ especially S of NYC

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

It's already way off on the timing. It's currently 1903z and the graphics don't match up.

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