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May 23/24 SNE/NNE Thunder Thread


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Anyone think we should go with a more blanket summer convection thread like in the past?

Or is a new thread for every summer day with t-storms the better route?

I like the separate threads...similar to winter weather threats. Only b/c it makes it easier to shift through if you're trying to find something.

Either way is fine though...I don't have a strong preference. I think last year we just ended up using the May 1st thread lol

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Tough to gather whether this energy is legit, but if that is this could cause some problems across NY/PA given the soundings and environment. I also retract some of my previous statements regarding lack of s/w support for PA/NY...PA yes, NY not so much..especially upstate/central 

Shear is pretty impressive on recent NAM runs. > 60 kt 0-6 km and approaching that for 0-3 km shear. That points towards potentially higher end severe no matter the mode (discrete or squall line), especially when factoring in lapse rates aloft.

I'll be curious to see what the 00z ARW/NMM runs look like.

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will dews be high enough for Tors and ginning up spinners? LCL’s?

NAM forecasts for PA/NY are in the 65 degree range, which leads to LCLs around 1000 m. So I would say about in the middle, not bad but not great either. 

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53 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Shear is pretty impressive on recent NAM runs. > 60 kt 0-6 km and approaching that for 0-3 km shear. That points towards potentially higher end severe no matter the mode (discrete or squall line), especially when factoring in lapse rates aloft.

I'll be curious to see what the 00z ARW/NMM runs look like.

I don't think this is entirely similar, but this sort of reminds me of May 26, 2010 (or maybe it was 2009). 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This looks legit for PA. Maybe 6/2/98 redux?

I think the main s/w track looks a bit more favorable than yesterday too. In fact, that looks pretty similar to 6/2/98 and the environment is quite supportive for tornadic supercells. Looking at some of the SPC SREF products I think you could argue a MOD RISK may be in store at some point 

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the main s/w track looks a bit more favorable than yesterday too. In fact, that looks pretty similar to 6/2/98 and the environment is quite supportive for tornadic supercells. Looking at some of the SPC SREF products I think you could argue a MOD RISK may be in store at some point 

SPC suggesting a 10% tor risk possible out there tomorrow. Not bad for this part of the world.

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

SPC suggesting a 10% tor risk possible out there tomorrow. Not bad for this part of the world.

I was trying to gather if that was geared more towards the southern Plains or Northeast....hell I guess it could be both. Judging by the SPC SREF Sig tor ingredients I could see a 10%. I wanted to see the HREF probs but I guess it doesn't go out far enough yet. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I was trying to gather if that was geared more towards the southern Plains or Northeast....hell I guess it could be both. Judging by the SPC SREF Sig tor ingredients I could see a 10%. I wanted to see the HREF probs but I guess it doesn't go out far enough yet. 

Good point, I initially took that to refer to the Northeast, but it could very well refer to the whole CONUS.

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Good point, I initially took that to refer to the Northeast, but it could very well refer to the whole CONUS.

Actually on second note I'm quite certain it's the Plains b/c it says 10% SIG. I think they started listed the probs with the D2 within the last year and I think they'll just list the highest probabilities that exist. 

I wonder if they'll ever go to a format for D2 like they do with D1 where they have a probability graphic for each hazard. 

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