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OKStorm

MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

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2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

The PDS tor watch had higher probs than the 2011 Alabama outbreak. The comparison is far from "foolish".

Probs are actually the same as the infamous watch from 2011.

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2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

The PDS tor watch had higher probs than the 2011 Alabama outbreak. The comparison is far from "foolish".

They have the same probs. 95 is the highest it goes. But comparing to 4-27-11 is not wise. That's a rare kind of outbreak 

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

I am not sure what has to happen to say it's living up to the hype. Seems there have been a lot of tornado warned storms already. 

several EF3s and at least one 4 or 5?

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Still time and unfortunately as 5/3/99 showed, it only takes one late evening storm.

SW OK cell which was on its last breaths earlier now showing healthy signs of tornado formation soon if it survives this merger 

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How hard is it to remember the age old adage: “Every setup is different”? 

To those expecting 4/27/11 all over again, you’re going to be disappointed. Yes, the watch probs are the same, but again, refer to age old adage. To those alluding that today is done and the high risk is a bust, you may very well be eating some crow in 3-5 hours as well. 

Some details glossed over in the candy colored HRRR runs and textbook soundings that have been revealed by mesoanalysis: low level lapse rates in the open warm sector right now really aren’t that impressive. Certainly plays some role. Also, with the storms in west TX, the SW to NE motion has put storms parallel to the 0-6km mean shear vector (Quincy V. pointed this out on Twitter if you follow him), resulting in more linear storm appearances. I think as this activity moves east/northeast, there may be some potential for a few discrete cells to evolve. Lower 9-11km SR Winds and a change in the 0-6km shear vectors seem to support this. 

Could nothing happen? Sure. And I’m fine with eating crow from this post as well. But far to early to call at 5pm CDT, IMO. 

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A high risk has to verify with a greater number of tornadoes within a certain geographical area and that number is larger than slight, enhanced, or moderate. We will not achieve that today.  I was surprised by the 95% across the board and immediately thought of 4/27.  I guess SPC was thinking there would be more tornadoes along the retreating WF and in the warm sector itself than what we have seen prior to the development of storms coming off the dryline for this evening.  Yet in terms of damage and destruction, it does only take one storm in a populated area to be truly memorable.  But that does not verify high risk.

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Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Cells in W OK starting to look better as well and become more separate.

Was just going to post that.  They look healthier and more discrete already.

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An addendum to my last post. As of the last couple mesoanalysis runs lapse rates over C OK are improving. If that Hollis cell makes a right turn, it could certainly explode into something big.

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21 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

These posts are unreal, atmosphere is set and all it takes is one or two to verify and that is very possible. To compare to Alabama 2011 is foolish, that's literally the gold standard of all time.

what is that supposed to mean. (it only takes one or two?).   are you saying if one strong tornado hits a city rather then one county it somehow verifies? 

there is no discrete storms right now over Southern OK..HRRR models from earlier had discrete storms there by now in addition to the current ones west 

the storms over Northern OK are nothing but heavy rain training outflow crap,,and this outflow seems to be sagging SE,,the best shot is the lead storms west of Tulsa if the can turn more east and moving along the boundary instead of to the left of it

 

the latest  21z HRRR merges what supercell there are into lines within 3 hours 

 

 

That isn't to say there won't still be a decent amount of tornadoes some strong....

 

 

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A few little pop-ups going up within the warm sector in N TX to S OK. Probably worth watching, especially the one north of Paris, TX.

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1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:

Going multivortex.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

Here comes our long-track tornado producing supercell...

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22 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Still time and unfortunately as 5/3/99 showed, it only takes one late evening storm.

I remember about a few years ago there was a  hyped system that didn't pan out during the day/early evening, but it did during the night. 

There was also multiple people calling it a bust before the event was fully over.  (Those guys pretty much looked like fools afterwards).

 

 

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