NorthArlington101 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Storm west of Childress looking better. If it can recover, that would be the one I'd watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeosborne38 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Today proves how extremely rare days like April 27 2011 really are. Most outbreak days have some limiting factors unlike that day. Good news for the immediate OKC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, mikeosborne38 said: Today proves how extremely rare days like April 27 2011 really are. Most outbreak days have some limiting factors unlike that day. Good news for the immediate OKC area. Way too early to say that. It's not even 5pm CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I’m going to preach patience with this set-up. Things are really starting organize across the high risk area. Yes, we don’t have widespread warm sector development well ahead of the dry line, but we don’t need that to have several long-track violent tornadoes today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, CryHavoc said: Way too early to say that. It's not even 5pm CDT. Considering the fact that there had already been several EF-5s on 4-27 by this time, I think this statement is well justified. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Storm west of Childress looking better. If it can recover, that would be the one I'd watch. yeah it really needs a warning on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, ICEHOCEY77 said: yeah it really needs a warning on it think it has one? continuing to look better. Pretty nice hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 the OK cells look like crap..as another poster mentioned they run north into that boundary..spin up for a bit...then become elevated//also look "grungy"..they need to turn more right the next cell looks to go in Northern kingfisher county no sign of development in the open warm sector besides the dry line back in western TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 It's pretty obvious this isn't going to verify as a high risk. Cold air is killing everything along the boundary and not much got going in the warm sector. Yeah its not even 5 pm but there's just not many storms in a favorable environment and no sign that anything new will develop further east before this all lines out. Will there be a few more tornadoes? Yes I'd say that's likely. Are we going to see a swarm of large/violent tornadoes across a good chunk of Oklahoma. I don't think so at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 New wall cloud on KFOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 KFOR seems to think they have a tornado on the ground, definitely at least have a wall cloud around Perry, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Just now, jpeters3 said: Considering the fact that there had already been several EF-5s on 4-27 by this time, I think this statement is well justified. Sure, if you're comparing today directly to 4/27 as a measure of a "bust" scenario. If we're literally talking about the largest outbreak in history as the bar today needed to clear -- that's flatly ridiculous. It is not time for people to relax or let their guard down. Only takes one big cell to send death tolls skyrocketing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said: I’m going to preach patience with this set-up. Things are really starting organize across the high risk area. Yes, we don’t have widespread warm sector development well ahead of the dry line, but we don’t need that to have several long-track violent tornadoes today. Its not over, but its not what we thought it was going to be 5 hours ago. SPC has already admitted in an MD that the SC OK high risk is not looking like it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 It's a bust. I'm not afraid to say it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Tornado warned storm North Of Joplin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 We're only around half time in this outbreak, if that, so would not be writing any obits for it yet. Storm outflow at LBB (airport is nne of city) was gusting to 55 knots southeast at the same time (2121z) as severe warned radar echoes about 5 miles east and 8 miles south of location, telling me that the storm to the south was increasing in strength then. As others stated earlier, dry line is encroaching on storm zone here and south now, expect some strong development next three or four hours. Eventually I think it morphs into a massive MCS with possible squall line for central and eastern OK throughout the night. That would mean less severe but more widespread damage than a tornadic scenario but that would develop first in western OK. Clinton may be close to the eventual peak of tornadic activity before the MCS phase begins. I will predict developing MCS passage at OKC at or about 03z (10 pm CDT). Clinton south to about Hobart OK max tornadic risk about 00z to 01z (7-8 p.m. CDT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeosborne38 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 1 minute ago, CryHavoc said: Sure, if you're comparing today directly to 4/27 as a measure of a "bust" scenario. If we're literally talking about the largest outbreak in history as the bar today needed to clear -- that's flatly ridiculous. It is not time for people to relax or let their guard down. Only takes one big cell to send death tolls skyrocketing. Sorry I was the person that made that statement about 4/27. I made it out of relief as I lived through that day and was worried for Oklahoma when people compared today directly to 4/27. Hopefully everything trends away from what was shown this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: Its not over, but its not what we thought it was going to be 5 hours ago. SPC has already admitted in an MD that the SC OK high risk is not looking like it will verify. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM A POSSIBLE SCENARIO OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OK. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO INVOLVES SEVERAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND APPROACHING THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE OKC METRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Tornadic circulation ESE of Hollis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 We've made it to 86 in Waurika in far southern Oklahoma and not a radar return within 100 miles. If it hasn't gone up yet, it ain't gonna happen in the open warm sector past what is already around. Which is basically one storm near Hollis at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, JMT417 said: Tornado warned storm North Of Joplin preliminary tornado report near Weir, KS (listed as 3 N Carona Kansas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: think it has one? continuing to look better. Pretty nice hook. just tor warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 LOL at some of these posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 KFOR just did a long cone, Childress/Gould cell would get to OKC metro area around 8:00CDT. That is the one to watch, IMO. Not to take the conversation back to OT, but you can say that the high risk will bust without saying that there isn't a chance one storm comes along that leaves a trail of destruction. I think everyone knows it only takes one, but this event certaintly seems like it won't meet some expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Appears that the supercell near Hollis, OK is about to undergo a storm merger. Could increase tornado potential here in the next hour, seen it many times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 Main show, meanwhile, appears to be evolving east of Lubbock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 These posts are unreal, atmosphere is set and all it takes is one or two to verify and that is very possible. To compare to Alabama 2011 is foolish, that's literally the gold standard of all time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 The PDS tor watch had higher probs than the 2011 Alabama outbreak. The comparison is far from "foolish". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 TWC has a camera on the Gould, OK storm. Livestream below for those like me who don't get TWC. https://www.livenewsnow.com/american/the-weather-channel.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 I don't know if this is helpful, but the Parnell storm may have some counter-rotating vortices aloft (SRV-1 is well above the ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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