MUWX Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Potentially the first tornado emergency that Tulsa has ever issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 This was why the moderate risk was maintained. As soon as the outflow boundary was pushed back, we finally had storms able to tap into a violent tornado environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Not entirely for sure but think it may have occluded before hitting Leach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, jojo762 said: Not entirely for sure but think it may have occluded before hitting Leach. I can’t tell, quite the circulation but it’s not nearly as tight as it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 TE dropped in latest update from Tulsa on storm, but still includes PDS wording for large and extremely dangerous tornado 3 N Twin Oaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, MUWX said: I can’t tell, quite the circulation but it’s not nearly as tight as it was I'm watching a Tulsa station and it's about to hit a boundary of colder air, and the boundary is just past Leach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said: This was why the moderate risk was maintained. As soon as the outflow boundary was pushed back, we finally had storms able to tap into a violent tornado environment. Thats one of the craziest QCLS hooks I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 That thing ingested a small cell from the south and almost immediately exploded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Seems to me that it’s going to cycle... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Seems to me that it’s going to cycle... Agreed. Not sure it’s done yet. The air south of the line should be relatively untouched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Seems to me that it’s going to cycle... Looks like it made a right turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Looks like it made a right turn That could be concerning if this storm can hold together and head towards the major population centers in NW AR like Bentonville or just north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 MD out for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 1 minute ago, MUWX said: MD out for it https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0715.html Mesoscale Discussion 0715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 Areas affected...far northeast Oklahoma...far northwest Arkansas...far southwest Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 200... Valid 210406Z - 210430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues. SUMMARY...Significant tornado potential exists with a storm in Delaware County, Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...A supercell initially over Mayes/Cherokee Counties in Oklahoma favorably interacted with an outflow boundary and generated an intense mesocyclone, with experimental guidance suggestive of a significant tornado in the area. Strong rotation continues on radar, and significant tornado potential will exist with this storm as it migrates east-northeastward through Delaware County, OK; Benton County, AR; and McDonald County, MO through 05Z as long as it can remain rooted near the outflow boundary. ..Cook.. 05/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Meanwhile... a flash flood emergency was just issued by NWS Tulsa BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1114 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR HOMINY...PAWNEE...BARTLESVILLE SKIATOOK...DEWEY... The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southern Osage County in northeastern Oklahoma... Washington County in northeastern Oklahoma... Pawnee County in northeastern Oklahoma... Northwestern Tulsa County in northeastern Oklahoma... * Until 515 AM CDT Tuesday. * At 1110 PM CDT, emergency management reported numerous closed roadways, water rescues, and homes being evacuated. Four to six inches of rain have fallen, and additional heavy rainfall will move into the area soon. Widespread flash flooding is already occurring. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR HOMINY...PAWNEE...BARTLESVILLE SKIATOOK...AND DEWEY. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Bartlesville... Pawhuska... Pawnee... Skiatook... Hominy... Dewey... Cleveland... Fairfax... Barnsdall... Ramona... Wynona... Ochelata... Jennings... Ralston... Avant... Westport... Vera... Osage... Hallett... Blackburn... Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Looks like it could be trying to spin up again, but it’s in a terrible spot radar wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Incredible photo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1140 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Kent County in northwestern Texas... Southeastern Dickens County in northwestern Texas... Southern King County in northwestern Texas... Stonewall County in northwestern Texas... * Until 1230 AM CDT. * At 1139 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles west of Jayton to 8 miles northwest of Rotan, moving northeast at 55 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Aspermont, Jayton, Girard, Peacock, Old Glory and Swenson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, yoda said: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1140 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019 The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Kent County in northwestern Texas... Southeastern Dickens County in northwestern Texas... Southern King County in northwestern Texas... Stonewall County in northwestern Texas... * Until 1230 AM CDT. * At 1139 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles west of Jayton to 8 miles northwest of Rotan, moving northeast at 55 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Aspermont, Jayton, Girard, Peacock, Old Glory and Swenson. That area has been pounded in the last 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Flash flood emergency for Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 This event is wildly fascinating to me. Extreme CAPE/shear combo and largely busted today. We have much to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 6 hours ago, bjc3395 said: This event is wildly fascinating to me. Extreme CAPE/shear combo and largely busted today. We have much to learn. Yes and no...yes b/c we will always be learning but in terms of yesterday I don't think it could have (or should have been handled any differently). While this bares true for any type of weather event, IMO this is moreso for severe wx, but mesoscale features and short-term evolution are extremely critical for these types of events. There are plenty of meteorologists who have presented some ideas as to why we didn't see a much larger number of tornadoes (and strong tornadoes). Keep in mind none of these thoughts are mine...I am presenting what I have read, but temperatures around 10,000 to 20,000' ended up slightly warmer, an increase in H7 frotogenesis helped nudge a push of warmer air here into OK. Forcing may have slacked a bit more. I know "busts" hurt the credibility of forecasts, but the main goal for forecasters is protecting life and property. In a case leading up to yesterday there is no other way to handle that. You want to give people as much information as possible to protect their life...people are too easy to cry and complain, but those who went through a terrifying situation are likely to be extremely thankful. What doesn't help the situation is the people who run around social media and cry bust after every weather event. Severe weather happened yesterday...and quite a bit...and in the highlighted area. People should be thankful we didn't see numerous strong-to-violent tornadoes and there aren't casualties (I have not heard of any...and hope there haven't been). 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric In NW Ohio Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Yes and no...yes b/c we will always be learning but in terms of yesterday I don't think it could have (or should have been handled any differently). While this bares true for any type of weather event, IMO this is moreso for severe wx, but mesoscale features and short-term evolution are extremely critical for these types of events. There are plenty of meteorologists who have presented some ideas as to why we didn't see a much larger number of tornadoes (and strong tornadoes). Keep in mind none of these thoughts are mine...I am presenting what I have read, but temperatures around 10,000 to 20,000' ended up slightly warmer, an increase in H7 frotogenesis helped nudge a push of warmer air here into OK. Forcing may have slacked a bit more. I know "busts" hurt the credibility of forecasts, but the main goal for forecasters is protecting life and property. In a case leading up to yesterday there is no other way to handle that. You want to give people as much information as possible to protect their life...people are too easy to cry and complain, but those who went through a terrifying situation are likely to be extremely thankful. What doesn't help the situation is the people who run around social media and cry bust after every weather event. Severe weather happened yesterday...and quite a bit...and in the highlighted area. People should be thankful we didn't see numerous strong-to-violent tornadoes and there aren't casualties (I have not heard of any...and hope there haven't been). Well said... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Today is ENH over Missouri and parts of surrounding states so watch for a qlcs tornado fest way things have gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 21 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Today is ENH over Missouri and parts of surrounding states so watch for a qlcs tornado fest way things have gone. I am prepared for another 4/30/19 kinda day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Good article by Dr. Marshall Shepard on yesterdays "Bust" talk. https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/05/21/three-problems-with-the-word-bust-during-real-time-weather-threats/#77c6058b5338 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 Tornado watch coming soon for much of AR and Southern MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 4 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Yes and no...yes b/c we will always be learning but in terms of yesterday I don't think it could have (or should have been handled any differently). While this bares true for any type of weather event, IMO this is moreso for severe wx, but mesoscale features and short-term evolution are extremely critical for these types of events. There are plenty of meteorologists who have presented some ideas as to why we didn't see a much larger number of tornadoes (and strong tornadoes). Keep in mind none of these thoughts are mine...I am presenting what I have read, but temperatures around 10,000 to 20,000' ended up slightly warmer, an increase in H7 frotogenesis helped nudge a push of warmer air here into OK. Forcing may have slacked a bit more. I know "busts" hurt the credibility of forecasts, but the main goal for forecasters is protecting life and property. In a case leading up to yesterday there is no other way to handle that. You want to give people as much information as possible to protect their life...people are too easy to cry and complain, but those who went through a terrifying situation are likely to be extremely thankful. What doesn't help the situation is the people who run around social media and cry bust after every weather event. Severe weather happened yesterday...and quite a bit...and in the highlighted area. People should be thankful we didn't see numerous strong-to-violent tornadoes and there aren't casualties (I have not heard of any...and hope there haven't been). Well articulated. What I'd like to know for future threads like this is the rationale people have on these threads of saying "bust" before 5pm on a high risk day. What is to be gained? Why is it necessary to immediately jump all over a "bust" call? Most of us reading the threads are scientists or have at least an active interest in the science of weather. We can openly acknowledge difficult/problematic forecasts when the event is over -- by coming to consensus based on the parameters merited. This isn't a sporting event. It's a scientific pursuit of knowledge. Saying an event "busts" isn't even a scientific statement -- it contains absolutely no furthering of information or exchange of curiosity. It's just a token word designed to... I don't know, make the person saying it feel cool because they're calling out the SPC as an authority? Furthermore, bust calls tend to kill conservation about the actual events taking place. At the very least it never promotes healthy discussion in these threads. Rushing to bust calls, in my humble opinion, serves absolutely no one. Additionally, I am extremely concerned about the pressure this kind of thing can put on forecasters to be less aggressive in these calls. Protection of lives must remain a priority. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeosborne38 Posted May 21, 2019 Share Posted May 21, 2019 57 minutes ago, CryHavoc said: Well articulated. What I'd like to know for future threads like this is the rationale people have on these threads of saying "bust" before 5pm on a high risk day. What is to be gained? Why is it necessary to immediately jump all over a "bust" call? Most of us reading the threads are scientists or have at least an active interest in the science of weather. We can openly acknowledge difficult/problematic forecasts when the event is over -- by coming to consensus based on the parameters merited. This isn't a sporting event. It's a scientific pursuit of knowledge. Saying an event "busts" isn't even a scientific statement -- it contains absolutely no furthering of information or exchange of curiosity. It's just a token word designed to... I don't know, make the person saying it feel cool because they're calling out the SPC as an authority? Furthermore, bust calls tend to kill conservation about the actual events taking place. At the very least it never promotes healthy discussion in these threads. Rushing to bust calls, in my humble opinion, serves absolutely no one. Additionally, I am extremely concerned about the pressure this kind of thing can put on forecasters to be less aggressive in these calls. Protection of lives must remain a priority. I'll answer for myself. I have family in Midwest City and I only mentioned a bust because I was happy it was trending that way. I lived through 4/27 and don't wish that on anyone. Like Dr Shepherd mentions in the article the current 24/7 news cycle along with social media and the search for likes and clicks contribute to some accusations of sensationalism. Also, a good question posed in that article is are words like "dangerous"and "catastrophic"being over used? In hindsight maybe mentioning 4/27 was a mistake as that day stands in a category by itself, even among high risk outbreak days. People were expecting multiple violent tornadoes down at the same time like 4/27. Most lay person's don't read forecast discussions, etc to know possible limiting factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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