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Monday, May 20, 2019 Convective Potential


weatherwiz
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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It was amazing watching that from zygote to monter, and eerie because as you watched and knew OKC was standing literally right on its trajectory ... you're powerless to stop it. 

Some political undertones, no doubt

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've actually seen 0-3km 400 amid 4000 SB and 3000+ MU before...  

I think the day of the Oklahoma City 1999 was like that... 

I was working at a company, Weather Service International then ... and I remember a single pixel on the radar scope and three sweeps later it was 5 pixels with one 55 dbz, and then three sweeps later is was a 68 dbz core clear to 35 k and a tor warned cell. I watched it for many miles as it bee-lined for the city that faithful late afternoon/evening.  It was amazing watching that from zygote to monter, and eerie because as you watched and knew OKC was standing literally right on its trajectory ... you're powerless to stop it.  I think at one time the radar panned 7 or 8 concurrent hooks spread out 

I remember that day extremely well...was watching TWC and local news. One of the former CT meteorologists (I know his name but will butcher the spelling so out of respect I won't mention it) had jused moved to the OKC area not long before this...but that local news station (and I'm sure others) were covering it. Sickening to watch. That event though did lead to some incredibly ground breaking research.

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

meh...best lift is below the DGZ

:weenie: x 1000000

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I would imagine the Tuscaloosa 2011 supercell that rode all the way in VA before dying, putting down a whole family of tornadoes in the process, might be an example of this.

heh... Never heard of that one .. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I remember that day extremely well...was watching TWC and local news. One of the former CT meteorologists (I know his name but will butcher the spelling so out of respect I won't mention it) had jused moved to the OKC area not long before this...but that local news station (and I'm sure others) were covering it. Sickening to watch. That event though did lead to some incredibly ground breaking research.

:weenie: x 1000000

Bridge Creek still holds the world record wind speed from that event. El Reno came close, but no cigar.

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Jesus...the latest MCD is about as scary as it gets. If I lived in that area I would be freaked out beyond belief. Wording can't get any more intense than that 

Meh... until one reads, "IF YOU ARE IN THIS BOX YOU DIE" ... not impressed

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29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Jesus...the latest MCD is about as scary as it gets. If I lived in that area I would be freaked out beyond belief. Wording can't get any more intense than that 

You have to feel bad for the people who live in that  area. I'm sure many people  are glued to the WC and local broadcasts as they wait for the storms to develop. Downright scary situation for those who live in the area. 

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Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

You have to feel bad for the people who live in that  area. I'm sure many people  are glued to the WC and local broadcasts as they wait for the storms to develop. Downright scary situation for those who live in the area. 

Yeah I can't imagine what they're going through. A friend of mine from my brief career at Lyndon State is a chief met in OK and his viewing area is dead smack in the middle. You just hope that people can not only get warnings in a timely fashion but are able to act. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I can't imagine what they're going through. A friend of mine from my brief career at Lyndon State is a chief met in OK and his viewing area is dead smack in the middle. You just hope that people can not only get warnings in a timely fashion but are able to act. 

Hopefully many already have a plan in place. At one time friends  lived in Arlington Texas. They had neighbors who would drive several hundred miles away to miss the severe weather. They were in their 70's. And they were petrified of the storms. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

They did an 18z balloon launch out of DFW (and I am guessing OKC) but I don't seem them anywhere 

The DFW launch had a strong cap in place.  Tremendous instability but seems somewhat unlikely it breaks.  

OUN launch had slightly better winds, no real cap.  Not quite as much instability yet.

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Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Hopefully many already have a plan in place. At one time friends  lived in Arlington Texas. They had neighbors who would drive several hundred miles away to miss the severe weather. They were in their 70's. And they were petrified of the storms. 

closing schools was definitely a smart decision I think. Keep kids and faculty home...less people that have to travel.

Just now, radarman said:

The DFW launch had a strong cap in place.  Tremendous instability but seems somewhat unlikely it breaks.  

OUN launch had slightly better winds, no real cap.  Not quite as much instability yet.

Just posted on the SPC site. I'm a bit baffled by the OUN sounding with regards to the lapse rates...unless they had something move through there? Has less than 6 700-500 lapse rate

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

closing schools was definitely a smart decision I think. Keep kids and faculty home...less people that have to travel.

Just posted on the SPC site. I'm a bit baffled by the OUN sounding with regards to the lapse rates...unless they had something move through there? Has less than 6 700-500 lapse rate

They are a little close to the warm front I think.

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