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Isotherm

My Summer Outlook 2019 (and NJ Snowfall Map)

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I came to very similar conclusions from a different research perspective (summary posted in whatever we call the main forum, I call it the Quiet Zone). 

Would not be surprised if there is some exceptional heat at some point in July or August as you seem to be implying. 

Good luck with your forecast, if you're right, I'm right. 

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5 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I came to very similar conclusions from a different research perspective (summary posted in whatever we call the main forum, I call it the Quiet Zone). 

Would not be surprised if there is some exceptional heat at some point in July or August as you seem to be implying. 

Good luck with your forecast, if you're right, I'm right. 

 

 

Thanks, Roger, and I concur, [while the language was qualified somewhat due to long range precautions] I saw some distinct signals for potential major heat. Good luck with your forecast as well. 

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Isn't it taken for granted that any 3-month (seasonal forecast) will come in AN a disproportionate number of times, like weighted dice?      The average age of all Top Ten Coolest Summers [NYC] is about 120 years.     For all the Top Ten Warmest, the age is about 35 years!    I am guessing this extends all the way down/up  the line in both cases.

It appears sagacious to say nothing, unless you really have evidence for BN.

Did you consider the Stratospheric Warming which is affecting southern latitudes too, as of late?    Weaker  SE Ridge a possible outcome here.

I am hoping for short-term heatwaves of three or fewer days duration.     Your 26, 90-degree days implies at least one 5/6+stretch, I would bet.

 

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The SSTA profile similarities b/t present [2019] and late May 2002 are quite striking. The degree of structural symmetry is impressive, on a hemispheric and even global scale.

 

qqpav9.png

 

rapzlz.gif

 

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On 5/26/2019 at 5:40 PM, CIK62 said:

Isn't it taken for granted that any 3-month (seasonal forecast) will come in AN a disproportionate number of times, like weighted dice?      The average age of all Top Ten Coolest Summers [NYC] is about 120 years.     For all the Top Ten Warmest, the age is about 35 years!    I am guessing this extends all the way down/up  the line in both cases.

It appears sagacious to say nothing, unless you really have evidence for BN.

Did you consider the Stratospheric Warming which is affecting southern latitudes too, as of late?    Weaker  SE Ridge a possible outcome here.

I am hoping for short-term heatwaves of three or fewer days duration.     Your 26, 90-degree days implies at least one 5/6+stretch, I would bet.

 

 

The background state is certainly a not insignificant factor inculcated in the overall long range forecast equation, from my standpoint. 

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