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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

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The low level jet is much more favorable for tornadoes. Moderate risk-caliber? We'll see. The combination of instability and shear along the High Plains is pretty impressive. Early storm initiation may be the limiting factor again, but any storms that can remain at least semi-discrete will pose a legitimate tornado threat, particularly after 21-22z.

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This is one of the more intense, but narrow paths of damage I’ve seen in a while. This is the damage from the El Reno QLCS tornado last night. 

 

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Not sure why they went with a MDT risk really, just as I wasn’t sure why they went with a 10% TOR yesterday. Environment doesn’t seem to imply a moderate risk type setup to me, despite that it is (much) more impressive than yesterday. 12z DDC RAOB depicted a fairly weak cap, but downstream soundings (such as 12z AMA) seem to indicate a more pronounced EML will advect into the area. Most CAMs seem to indicate at least a couple/few hours with a few discrete/semi-discrete storms. Anything that is discrete today could certainly produce with the environment at hand... But if convection evolution is anything close to what it was yesterday, there would be a minimal tornado risk. Have to work today, so taking the day off from chasing. Might go to western KS on Monday and hope something goes up but not sure, as minimal capping will exist and the jet streak begins to impinge on the dryline, any storm along the dryline tomorrow could produce all severe hazards. Better chase prospects coming on Tuesday.

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Janet, do you see the garbage dumpster that landed and crashed through the roof (in the hotel pics you posted)? That's interesting. Those commercial dumpsters aren't light, and this one crashed through the roof. It appears that you can see an impact crater on the left side above the dumpster. I'm guessing once the structural integrity was damaged, it looks like the surrounding area blew apart.

I always wonder how much large heavy debris objects like dumpsters and cars compound damage - in an intense tornado, they can basically serve forward artillery.

Joplin looked like it had tons of cars everywhere in driveways in the street view images before the tornado there, and I imagine rolling/tumbling and flying cars significantly escalated the damage potential of the debris field.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, DanLarsen34 said:

This is one of the more intense, but narrow paths of damage I’ve seen in a while. This is the damage from the El Reno QLCS tornado last night. 

 

Is that the only damage? I havent seen any other pictures.

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SPC mesoanalysis forecast shows STP values of up to 3 or 4 in western Kansas and vicinity in 6 hrs. I don't know if this whole scenario will really verify the 15% tornado outlook. But then again, I don't know exactly how the SPC grades themselves on outlook accuracy. At this time, one intense storm is getting going around Springfield, CO (near Kansas.) The dew points are over 50, here at 5000 ft and even 6000 ft (Cheyenne). So summer has officially started with this moisture surge.

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Storm mode is just awful right now. Everything is a blob in the warm sector. Precipitation is also blowing up well ahead of the main show in CO.

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Spun up pretty quick

 

Edit;  beaten to the punch one post above this one. Confirmed rain wrapped tornado now. 

Screenshot_2019-05-26-17-37-56.jpg

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This is one of the oddest strong tornado signatures I’ve seen. Meso is completely wrapped in rain. No discernable CC drop, but we could be looking at a significant tornado. 

1B090CFB-EA33-4334-9DE7-C3FE2EEC09AF.png

4117E985-E0DC-4811-8E39-DDD625C26549.png

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19 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

This is one of the oddest strong tornado signatures I’ve seen. Meso is completely wrapped in rain. No discernable CC drop, but we could be looking at a significant tornado. 

1B090CFB-EA33-4334-9DE7-C3FE2EEC09AF.png

4117E985-E0DC-4811-8E39-DDD625C26549.png

There's only widely scattered farms in that region outside of the towns, like Colby and Hays. It'd be extremely easy for a tornado to hit nothing but maybe some center-pivot irrigation equipment out there and nothing else.

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16 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Very strong rotation with that storm NW of Wiley CO. 

looking better organized on radar

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Possible tornado near Denver (Watkins.) It may be tracking near the FTG radar site in 20 minutes or more.

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7 hours ago, TriPol said:

Do we have a more active severe weather season this year? It feels like it..

Also feels like it is getting harder to predict the actual level of threat for tornadoes. 

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Just now, Chinook said:

What the heck? Is that 80 or 100 chase vehicles in the same area?

Yes. Seeing chasers confirm accidents are occurring too. The screen grab is from one of the people I follow who’s out in the field, Paxton Biggs.

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