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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

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42 minutes ago, yoda said:

1730 Day 2 OTLK keeps the ENH and increases the size by double... also says could go to MDT tomorrow 

Have been looking at Saturday for several days now. CAMs and HRRR point to what could be significant day across SW KS. Area INVOF the triple point will likely have volatile environment capable of all severe hazards, including significant tornadoes. Probably going out with some met students to near DDC then reevaluate satellite/obs from there.

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20 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Have been looking at Saturday for several days now. CAMs and HRRR point to what could be significant day across SW KS. Area INVOF the triple point will likely have volatile environment capable of all severe hazards, including significant tornadoes. Probably going out with some met students to near DDC then reevaluate satellite/obs from there.

Cams are all over the map right now.  The 12Z stuff had dramatically different solutions even amongst the WRF family.  HRRR was tor outbreak.

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4 hours ago, OUGrad05 said:

Cams are all over the map right now.  The 12Z stuff had dramatically different solutions even amongst the WRF family.  HRRR was tor outbreak.

Most of the CAMs have tended to grow upscale very fast the last week or so with about every setup and have mostly been incorrect. Paying more attention to background environment really, which by 00Z should be fairly impressive. Southwest KS gonna southwest KS, as it always does...

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5 hours ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Man the Oklahoma tornado looked violent yesterday. 

 

Laverne getting a 1991 redux while the TX PH was getting an Allison/Kellerville redux. Those violent wedges tracking through the dusk and murk are scary...that's what most of us thought was gonna happen in spades last Monday. I was 2-3 miles from the eventual Mangum storm as it crossed US 62 near Gould and couldn't make out any definition of the updraft or what was going on under the base. It seemed those who got the tornado were those who got much closer and/or core punched, something I wanted no part of expecting tornadoes of the type above to get on the ground and stay on the ground, with Godzilla hail in the cores.

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Laverne getting a 1991 redux while the TX PH was getting an Allison/Kellerville redux. Those violent wedges tracking through the dusk and murk are scary...that's what most of us thought was gonna happen in spades last Monday. I was 2-3 miles from the eventual Mangum storm as it crossed US 62 near Gould and couldn't make out any definition of the updraft or what was going on under the base. It seemed those who got the tornado were those who got much closer and/or core punched, something I wanted no part of expecting tornadoes of the type above to get on the ground and stay on the ground, with Godzilla hail in the cores.

I was on mangum from the east. Really awful visability. I could see it through haze about 5-6 miles away eventually it moved to within a little less than a mile of us and then began to rope out

 

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2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

possible 2 or 3 tornadoes on the squall line in the Kansas City area

SZlPtgG.png

I’d say lake lotawana had one on the ground. There was a small cc spike with that directly correlated with the velocity/reflectivity scans 

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Hi from KC I'm northwest of that area on that squall line but just as the tornado warning went out my tv reception went out.  it's back on now and they say so far they haven't heard of any damage.  I watched 41 Action News on Facebook...they are live

Edited to add:  reports of trees down in Cass County

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28 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Laverne getting a 1991 redux while the TX PH was getting an Allison/Kellerville redux. Those violent wedges tracking through the dusk and murk are scary...that's what most of us thought was gonna happen in spades last Monday. I was 2-3 miles from the eventual Mangum storm as it crossed US 62 near Gould and couldn't make out any definition of the updraft or what was going on under the base. It seemed those who got the tornado were those who got much closer and/or core punched, something I wanted no part of expecting tornadoes of the type above to get on the ground and stay on the ground, with Godzilla hail in the cores.

What was weird about yesterday was I wasn’t particularly impressed with the storm mode or the radar presentation of the ones that produced before they had those violent wedges. There were definitely some high-end parameters (looked like relative helicity was upwards of 500-600 in that region), but I didn’t follow yesterday as close as the days prior for those reasons. Didn’t seem like many chasing in that area were optimistic either, especially with smoke affecting visibility. 

This stretch has definitely had several potentially violent tornadoes that have so far avoided significantly worse outcomes. Think we would have seen several EF4s if they had tracked over more well-built structures. Thankfully, that’s largely been avoided (Carl Junction and Jefferson City excluded). 

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I am in a Residence Inn full of families with kids and I poked my head out of my room and of course no one in the hallway was remotely aware there was anything such as tornado warning going on.  I just asked if their tv signal went out and they were like "we aren't watching TV"  so I said there was a tornado warning but it was for south of here.  They were eminently nonchalant 

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TXC371-250145-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-190525T0145Z/
Pecos TX-
821 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY...

At 820 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 27 miles southeast
of Fort Stockton, moving east at 15 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...Grapefruit size hail and 70 mph wind gusts

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TV weatherman is saying they probably had a touchdown around Lake Lafayette southeast of KC, as Pbrussell indicated. 

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1 hour ago, OortCloud said:

I am in a Residence Inn full of families with kids and I poked my head out of my room and of course no one in the hallway was remotely aware there was anything such as tornado warning going on.  I just asked if their tv signal went out and they were like "we aren't watching TV"  so I said there was a tornado warning but it was for south of here.  They were eminently nonchalant 

Yes, it is amazing how many of the stupids walk among us.  Las year I was also at a Residence Inn one night when a bunch of cop cars kept flying up in silent mode to the store across the street over 10 minutes, more than 2 dozen LEO's getting into hidden positions flanking a door.  Ambulances and fire truck staged a block away.  I turn to some moms hanging around the basketball court with 5 toddlers and little kids and say, "Since you have your kids I thought I should mention that it looks like something bad may be about to go down across the street, the police are set up around that door."  As in, police in between us and the door, directly in the line of return fire.  "Oh, cool, thanks" and then back to watching their kids run around the completely exposed court.

Luckily the suspects froze when confronted after exiting, but the cops had 2 dozen guns drawn.  "Oh wow, did you see that kids?"

(OBTW, no tornadoes touched down within a 50 mile radius of us that night.)

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Credit Mapgirl18 and UStornadoes twitter feed (at bottom of map: 236 tornado reports, 400 tornado warnings, 29 tornado watches)

xfwU79e.jpg

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4 hours ago, StormChazer said:

I know we are all probably pretty worn out from tracking all these storms, but definitely need to start keeping an eye on Tuesday.

Yes, I've been staying up till 2 am EDT this past week following results in the plains waiting for the next day outlook.  I'm supposed to get some severe here tomorrow afternoon in IN but will be heading up to the Chicago area to visit some relatives for two days.  Will take a break from following this closely.  But will drive back here to the Indpls area Tuesday morning and sign in to follow what may be a rough period once again if models are correct.  Concerned about all the flooding in the Tulsa area as well.

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4 hours ago, StormChazer said:

I know we are all probably pretty worn out from tracking all these storms, but definitely need to start keeping an eye on Tuesday.

Yeah, this could be a significant event at least for Central-Eastern Kansas. Not a lot to dislike on this 18z NAM sounding for Tuesday evening. 

2019052518_NAM_075_38.43,-95.79_severe_ml.png

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17 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Yeah, this could be a significant event at least for Central-Eastern Kansas. Not a lot to dislike on this 18z NAM sounding for Tuesday evening. 

2019052518_NAM_075_38.43,-95.79_severe_ml.png

Thoughts further east into Missouri?

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Quite a unique TOR warned couplet just to the west of Hobart, OK at the moment. Looks like two unique and strong circulations.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

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I hope someone has eyes on that storm west of OK city. Looks like it could be producing a tornado. Dill city/Burns Flat in immediate danger.

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This tornado-warned storm at Retrop, Oklahoma had a pretty high rotation rate, if the FDR radar detected it correctly

cKetkiC.png

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