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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

It's quite probable that the two are related (i.e. width and intensity are correlated).  I'm fairly sure I've seen some research evidence to support this.

Two tornadoes could have the same wind speed but a mile wide wedge is going to have a much longer duration than say a 100 yard wide tornado... thus more opportunity to inflict damage.

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

It's quite probable that the two are related (i.e. width and intensity are correlated).  I'm fairly sure I've seen some research evidence to support this.

Well if there's research to support it I acknowledge that (most violent tornadoes are indeed wedges), but I'm saying width is not factored in when it comes to the actual rating process. The above poster seemed to think it was for some reason. No surveyor says "well we have to rate it EF3+ because it was a wedge".

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6 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Well if there's research to support it I acknowledge that (most violent tornadoes are indeed wedges), but I'm saying width is not factored in when it comes to the actual rating process. The above poster seemed to think it was for some reason. No surveyor says "well we have to rate it EF3+ because it was a wedge".

 

This is true.  While they are correlated, I think there have been a few EF-2 purported wedges over the past 10 days (e.g. Mangum OK, Canadian TX).

Edit: I know both of these tornadoes were observed by DOWs.  It will be interesting to see what the radar data says.

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I was away from my computer for a little while. Where do you think the Lawrence/Linwood tornado lifted? Did it hit Bonner Springs and/or interstate 70?

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There's definitely a positive correlation between tornado width and intensity.  You just have to be careful to avoid absolutes.  A wide tornado does not guarantee an intense one, just as a narrow tornado does not necessarily indicate a weak one.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There's definitely a positive correlation between tornado width and intensity.  You just have to be careful to avoid absolutes.  A wide tornado does not guarantee an intense one, just as a narrow tornado does not necessarily indicate a weak one.

The early life of the jarrell tornado is a good example. Even under 50yds wide it was violent as all hell.

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So, I chased this evening in Kc and much of our view was obscured by rain. I was just south of the tornado as it passed through Linwood and had us go south when hit with substantial rfd (and it didn’t help that it was rain wrapped). We shot video of the tornado as it was rain wrapped and wedged out south of Lawrence. I also was on the tornado at Kearney Missouri and once again our view was obscured by rain. We couldn’t get in front of the tornado as the road we took was directly in the damage path (I shot video, several snapped trees and trees down in the road) I can also confirm that it was raining debris, as we saw large sticks coming down out of the air as the tornado began to dissipate. An extremely good chase and I would only be happier if these cells weren’t hp monsters 

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There have been 592 preliminary (unfiltered) tornado reports listed by the SPC this month (as of right now, including today's preliminary reports.)

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Some of that damage near Linwood KS is pretty intense... very likely high-end EF3 to EF4... which would make sense. GTG shear when I was south of it was 180mph at times. 

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**Language** Apparent video of tornado as it approached Linwood. I cannot imagine how it would feel to have this approaching your house.

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Some of the damage from this evening’s Linwood wedge tornado has been very impressive. This, coupled with research conducted by Rich Thompson and Sam Emmserson suggests this was likely a violent(EF4+) tornado. A 0.5 vrot of 90kts and a TDS to 25-30kft(at a minimum, there’s evidence that the TDS may have been potentially 35-40kft, but don’t wanna jump on that) put this firmly within the range where EF4+ is statistically favored.

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4 hours ago, Chinook said:

I was away from my computer for a little while. Where do you think the Lawrence/Linwood tornado lifted? Did it hit Bonner Springs and/or interstate 70?

Late to the party tonight.  From what I hear locally, it did a little damage at Highway 7 and Nettleton?  or something like that? in Bonner Springs but not a ton, and it uprooted a tree and severely mangled a highway sign on I-70.  

TV meteorologists were screaming their heads off about I-70 because they knew there would be cars on it that weren't paying attention.  Someone who lives near the tollbooth on I-70 posted that they heard it at their house and "It sounded like a freight train" (TM)  

My parents' old church friends from Linwood and Bonner have been reporting in safe and unharmed from Linwood and Bonner.  So far.  Tomorrow I'm going to call their old church (They live in Cincinnati now...that's another story)   I am going to find out if any of the people from their church 16 years ago, who helped them in 2003, were hit tonight, and I'll go help them.  

Back story:  This one took a very similar track to May 4, 2003.  From what I understand that one originated perhaps in Linwood, then hit the "Legends area," which was just beginning to be built, jumped the river and hit Parkville, hit a neighborhood in north Kansas City, then hit Liberty.  This one's track was very similar!  Forgot to say:  the May 4, 2003 one hit my parents' house just east of the Legends area.  (Where the racetrack is now)  

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Punched the RFD from south to north of the Lawrence tornado as it crossed 59. That thing was certainly mean. I managed to get a visit from the ghost train before backing out and heading south to the Wichita storms. HP storms in major metropolitan areas (plus all the stupid trees) make Northeast Kansas a PITA to chase in. 

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7 hours ago, yoda said:

Hey that looks like my ex's house.  Can't remember exactly where it was but a couple blocks south of 23rd, in some cul-de-sac type neighborhood with modern houses, (as opposed to the many Victorians etc. in East Lawrence)    and I think it was east of Haskell College.   But in that kind of neighborhood, a lot of the houses look alike.  But his really did look exactly like that.   Edited to add:  Well not like THAT.  Like the "Before" picture of that.  

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8 hours ago, Chinook said:

There have been 592 preliminary (unfiltered) tornado reports listed by the SPC this month (as of right now, including today's preliminary reports.)

Where did you see 592 total?  SPC has 442 through 11am CDT 5/28 on there STAMTS.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/STAMTS.txt

and there are so far 27 unfiltered prelim reports from 5/28, so that's 469.

 

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19 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

They change their mind on that tornado watch?

It’s still early in the day and most CAMs don’t show warm sector development until this afternoon. The watch only goes until 1 p.m. and it will probably be replaced by a new downstream tornado watch. 

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Is that cell southwest of Mineral Wells trying to develop some rotation by chance?  There might be a couplet near the Palo Pinto Creek Reservoir, though the storm is non-severe at the moment.

EDIT: at least it looked like one for a couple of frames on the radar loop.

EDIT 2: Storm may now be developing a hook near Weatherford.  Still non-severe.

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I thought I saw a little hook on reflectivity of all things a short time ago and wondered if NWS was going to warn for it.  81/71 Fprt Worth   86/72 Dallas

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
109 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019  
  
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OKMULGEE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF   
OKFUSKEE AND MUSKOGEE COUNTIES...  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
  OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
  CENTRAL OKFUSKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...  
  
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 105 PM CDT, OKMULGEE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED   
  EXTENSIVE FLOODING ONGOING.  TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED THROUGH   
  OKMULGEE COUNTY AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO   
  MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2   
  INCHES IS POSSIBLE.  
  
  THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OKMULGEE COUNTY AND PORTIONS   
OF WESTERN MUSKOGEE AND EASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES AND IS   
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!  
  
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
  OKMULGEE...                       OKEMAH...  
  OKFUSKEE...                       HENRYETTA...  
  HASKELL...                        MORRIS...  
  BEGGS...                          DEWAR...  
  SCHULTER...                       TAFT...  
  BOYNTON...                        GRAYSON...  
  COUNCIL HILL...                   HOFFMAN...  
  CASTLE...                         CLEARVIEW...  
  PRESTON...                        PHAROAH...  
  BALD HILL...                      OKMULGEE STATE PARK...  
  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE   
WARNED AREA.  

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
133 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019  
  
TXC121-291915-  
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-190529T1915Z/  
DENTON TX-  
133 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR  
NORTHERN DENTON COUNTY...  
          
AT 132 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER KRUM, OR NEAR  
SANGER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  4 MILES NORTH OF DENTON AND SANGER AROUND 145 PM CDT.  
  CROSS ROADS AROUND 200 PM CDT.  
  RAY ROBERTS PARK ISLE DU BOIS AND RAY ROBERTS PARK JOHNSON BRANCH   
  AROUND 210 PM CDT.  
  PILOT POINT AND AUBREY AROUND 215 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
LINCOLN PARK AND PONDER.  

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