Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,495
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Mary M
    Newest Member
    Mary M
    Joined
Quincy

Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

Recommended Posts

Well, I'll say I didn't exactly expect it to be a PDS watch, so that's a little surprising. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
   

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 211
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   230 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southwest and Central Oklahoma
     Western North Texas

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM
     until 1000 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 3 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorms are expected to affect the
   watch area this afternoon and early evening.  Any storm that
   persists will pose a risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
   damaging winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 25 miles south of Altus OK to 45
   miles south southeast of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU1).

 

 

ww0211_radar_big.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cells in south central Oklahoma are struggling due to the cap (at the moment).  Time will tell if they'll break through.  Of course, we have that storm north of Wichita Falls that recently had a cell merger.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Calderon said:

Well, I'll say I didn't exactly expect it to be a PDS watch, so that's a little surprising. 

A bit surprised with "several strong tornadoes likely," but there are some key ingredients that are in better alignment than Monday.

The best convergence/forcing appears to be north of OKC along the moisture gradient and that's where models just about unanimously agree on convective development later. I'm not quite sure why this watch is displaced to the south, but maybe they are considering a different watch for up north.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The way this wet from a general thunderstorm area in the Tuesday 1 AM Day 2 outlook to a PDS watch with at least a moderate risk is something I don't think I've ever seen. Only parallel I can think of the historical examples i've studied is May 3, 1999. Not saying anything like this going to happen by any stretch, but it's really rare that we've seen the SPC have to escalate their risk area like this in a 24-48 hour period. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that the PDS watch goes into a general thunderstorm/marginal/slight location instead of the moderate.  Has anyone ever seen something like this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guys, part of the PDS watch is currently under a general thunderstorm risk in the SPC outlook. There's something that's probably never happened before! lol.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, weatherextreme said:

Interesting that the PDS watch goes into a general thunderstorm/marginal/slight location instead of the moderate.  Has anyone ever seen something like this?

Could we see a significant adjustment to the outlook at 3?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I should note that there is subsidence in SW Missouri (which is in the moderate risk area) based on satellite trends.  No cumulus there at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, MUWX said:

Could we see a significant adjustment to the outlook at 3?

I would almost say 100% guarantee because having a PDS watch straddling into a general t'storm area would be a first, but possibly some kind of breaking of forecasting guidelines because that literally makes no sense.

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Calderon said:

I would almost say 100% guarantee because having a PDS watch straddling into a general t'storm area would be a first, but possibly some kind of breaking of forecasting guidelines because that literally makes no sense.

The low-level shear is not very favorable in the SW portion of the watch. Seems odd, but maybe it was a CYA decision for that cell going up. Regardless, the environment becomes increasingly favorable for significant severe with northeastward extent, especially from OKC metro and points northeast. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Could we see a significant adjustment to the outlook at 3?

Its already out... it made a somewhat SW move... but the PDS watch part in TX sits in the SLGT risk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Natester said:

I should note that there is subsidence in SW Missouri (which is in the moderate risk area) based on satellite trends.  No cumulus there at all.

It's transient and moving ENE with the CU field filling right back in from the SW. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Though we only have the one cell, the orientation of potential development of future cells in that line of cumulus up into the I-40 corridor is concerning.800028aca5e3c908e75e95f2c739a35e.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Quincy said:

The low-level shear is not very favorable in the SW portion of the watch. Seems odd, but maybe it was a CYA decision for that cell going up. Regardless, the environment becomes increasingly favorable for significant severe with northeastward extent, especially from OKC metro and points northeast. 

PDS for a single cell?

Is this like maintaining High Risk on Monday for a single cell?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Southern stream said:

Showers S of OKC. appear to be persisting and slightly growing. Cant believe we are seeing initiation happening so far south.

Hell the one in southwestern Pottawatomie County is rotating and has the kidney bean shape already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Storm near Lawton doesn't look particularly well organized yet. Meanwhile, we are probably going to need a PDS watch for NE Oklahoma soon. Several storms have breached the cap south of OKC and appear to be maintaining themselves as they track to the NE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cap is eroding just south of OKC, as evidenced by IR satellite meso floaters. Greens popping up east of the SW OK cell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×