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Quincy

Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

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The rumor has it that Tinker AFB is moving aircraft again. They moved them on Monday  for sure on Monday.

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10 hours ago, cstrunk said:

26 tornado reports yesterday.... 37 reports today. 

Seems like the best days are usually surprises more often than not lately. 

 

10 hours ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Watch tomorrow pull a May 3! Lol. It would sure fit the theme of our set-ups recently.

Know others have said this too, but it really seems like our high-end outlook days are performing like slight/enhanced, and our sneaky 5%-10% days are playing like moderate/high risks. Today basically played like a moderate in the cold core target in NE Kansas.

 

2 hours ago, jojo762 said:

I know this is anecdotal... but marginal’ish setups like today’s have been the ones to watch very closely the last few years, often producing days like Chapman or DDC or Bennington, among others. Given this line of thinking, (especially with the environmental conditions at hand later this afternoon and evening INVOF of the boundary) I’d expect some (potentially several) tornadic supercells today across NE OK/SE KS/SW MO, some could possibly be intense. 

SPC might upgrade tornado probs to MDT by 20Z, but spatial area may end up being too small to warrant such an upgrade.

 

I agree with all of this. All it takes is one big one to do damage, and it seems more often than not that happens lately when it's not super hyped like Monday was. 

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Extensive stratus + height rises maybe too much to overcome south of I40 today away from the boundary. I’m highly suspect of CAMs showing supercells south of there in the warm sector. Agree though that enhanced risk area could be busy later on.

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It’s something how quickly we went from this being a general thunderstorm area a day or two ago to suddenly looking like a dangerous set-up.

Quincy Vagell mentioned on twitter last night that the one of the few May analogs for today was May 9, 2003. That was a day that produced over 30 tornadoes, including an F-4 in the OKC metro. Difference he mentioned is that height rises are greater this time. 

Could be a day where, even if just one cell goes, it could go big.

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

Yes, watching this closely. This is awful as we thought we would get a break from the storms today. As someone else mentioned, SE KS is a flooded mess. 

I was there 5/22/11 Lived at the time in 3200 block South Highland. Missed us by 6 blocks. Still have lots of lifelong friends and family in Joplin. I would be lying if I said I was not greatly concerned about today. 

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I really don't feel good about today for a variety of reasons. Ongoing flooding. More heavy rain in flooded areas, with storms likely training over an area near or just north of I-44 in northeastern Oklahoma. Potentially discrete/semi-discrete storms in a highly sheared/strongly unstable environment. With many roads closed, that creates many complicating issues for evacuating, emergency responders and, of course, anyone storm chasing. Since it's in Oklahoma, you know there will be droves out. I just hope people stays safe.

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So is this cloudiness northwest of the OKC metro goign to delay/hamper initiation?

i feel like a lot people around here, are weather exhausted and may think today doesn’t have some risk. 

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39 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Extensive stratus + height rises maybe too much to overcome south of I40 today away from the boundary. I’m highly suspect of CAMs showing supercells south of there in the warm sector. Agree though that enhanced risk area could be busy later on.

This. Look at 700mb temperature trends via HRRR/RAP. Rising temperatures south of roughly I-40 and fairly steady near I-44, although there's an area of subtly falling 700mb temps northwest of Tulsa, lining up closely to the ENH risk area. 

Convective evolution is still a bit unclear. Models, including the HRRR, look a bit blobby, which is better than seeing it show one or two monster cells. With that said, given rising heights and mid-level temperatures that may be fairly steady too, part of me wonders if convection may be somewhat more sparse than modeled, especially near and just southeast of I-44.  I hope not, but if it were, that would even more strongly favor intense supercell development with any convection that does initiate. I don't think deep convection is all that likely once you get to areas south of OKC, given warming temperatures aloft.

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Upgrade at next update wouldn't be a huge surprise based on the environment and notion that there is agreement on convection developing in the region, next outlook will be interesting. 

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4 minutes ago, Southern stream said:

Upgrade at next update wouldn't be a huge surprise based on the environment and notion that there is agreement on convection developing in the region, next outlook will be interesting. 

WPC just upgraded the NE OK/SE KS/SW MO area to MDT risk for excessive rainfall.

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Just now, Southern stream said:

Upgrade at next update wouldn't be a huge surprise based on the environment and notion that there is agreement on convection developing in the region, next outlook will be interesting. 

Same, but I could also see them being a little gun shy after Monday, but we will see!

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5 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Same, but I could also see them being a little gun shy after Monday, but we will see!

Exactly! I've been pretty cautious of the HRRR since, but as Quincy just stated flooding is gonna be a major problem again with training Sups. I cant remember seeing such a water logged pattern in the Plains. SE ridge is keeping us out of the main storm threat in KY though, a little bummed. 

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AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1126 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2019  
  
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST  
KANSAS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM  
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.   
TORNADOES, LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ALL ARE POSSIBLE.  
   
..OK TO IL  
  
GIVEN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, HAVE OPTED TO  
UPGRADE TO MDT RISK ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO  
CENTRAL MO.  CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO GROW IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT  
SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AND  
SHEAR PROFILES RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.  THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE INDICATOR  
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT INVOLVES THE LARGE SCALE  
PATTERN, AND THE LARGE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES THAT ARE OCCURRING  
THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MODEL  
GUIDANCE SUGGEST VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER  
FLOW, WITH ONE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST OK.  THIS FEATURE WOULD  
ARRIVE INTO THE RISK AREA AROUND PEAK HEATING, POTENTIALLY HELPING  
INITIATION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR  
STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AND IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN  
FORM.  
  
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR INTO  
CENTRAL OK.  SEVERAL 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST 1-2 STORMS NEAR OKC  
THAT COULD BE SEVERE IF THEY DEVELOP, WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK OF  
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND HAIL.  HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENT  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FAR SOUTHWEST IS LOWER THAN FARTHER NORTHEAST.  
  
STORMS THAT FORM OVER CENTRAL MO WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL DURING THE EVENING, WITH THE CONTINUED RISK OF  
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW  
TORNADOES.  IT IS UNCLEAR HOW RICH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE  
AHEAD OF THE STORMS, BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE IN  
THIS AREA.  
  
..HART/KARSTENS.. 05/22/2019  
  
  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

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Pretty volatile looking 1530z sounding taken from the NWC here in Norman. Loaded gun more or less.

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Just now, andyhb said:

Pretty volatile looking 1530z sounding taken from the NWC here in Norman. Loaded gun more or less.

More ominous than Monday given such a clear boundary for storm initiation and better low-level thermodynamic profiles. I don't feel good about today, even if it's just flooding, but with the heightened severe risk as well, just, bleh.

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For the more knowledgeable members here: Does it appear possible a PDS watch will be issued for NE OK and adjacent areas north and east?

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When a sounding is posted is that for a specific area or the atmosphere in general?  Like, where so this sounding at lat/lon?

 

and as green as I am isn’t that a stout cap at 850mb?

 

don’t beat me up. I am still trying to learn how to read these thing

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15 minutes ago, Misstertwister said:

When a sounding is posted is that for a specific area or the atmosphere in general?  Like, where so this sounding at lat/lon?

 

and as green as I am isn’t that a stout cap at 850mb?

 

don’t beat me up. I am still trying to learn how to read these thing

A little bit of both. Soundings are produced from fixed locations, but are taken as a representation of the atmosphere for the general region. In this case, the sounding comes from the NSSL in Norman, OK, but can be viewed as a proxy for the state of the atmosphere over the OKC metro and surroundings. Whether or not lat/lon is included depends on who produces the sounding. Some give them, some don’t, but the location or launch site can be found in the upper right in most cases. 

And yes, that is a cap at 850mb. It’ll definitely influence the day, though it remains to be seen if the influence is positive or negative. 

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41 minutes ago, westhope84 said:

For the more knowledgeable members here: Does it appear possible a PDS watch will be issued for NE OK and adjacent areas north and east?

Possible but Ive seen days like this not have a PDS. Even if there isn't, still potential for significant tornadoes today.

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Yeah, the cap could hinder development, or on the other hand it could cause discrete storm mode and help the storm mode stay "less messy".

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Balloons can also drift hundreds of miles so even if released at a particular lat/lon what is sampled higher up may be over a point on the ground a good distance away from that initial launch site. 

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4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Balloons can also drift hundreds of miles so even if released at a particular lat/lon what is sampled higher up may be over a point on the ground a good distance away from that initial launch site. 

I'm not sure exactly how long a launch takes, but I'm willing to bet it's probably an hour or shorter.

If you assume the mean wind field is 50 knots, which is roughly what today's is between 850-300mb over central Oklahoma, then you would expect the balloon to travel no more than about 50 miles. Sure, that can change if there are stronger wind fields, but I doubt there are many times in which the mean wind field sfc-100mb wind field is >100 knots. I don't have science to back it up, but most data is probably collected within 100 miles of the launch. It's probably much closer than that, in most cases.

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2 hours ago, JMT417 said:

I was there 5/22/11 Lived at the time in 3200 block South Highland. Missed us by 6 blocks. Still have lots of lifelong friends and family in Joplin. I would be lying if I said I was not greatly concerned about today. 

I was here too. Definitely feels very muggy and uneasy out there today. A lot of people didn't think we were supposed to have storms today so they are just becoming aware of the threat. 

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Just now, JoMo said:

I was here too. Definitely feels very muggy and uneasy out there today. A lot of people didn't think we were supposed to have storms today so they are just becoming aware of the threat. 

Your posts were classic for the Joplin tornado.  I sincerely hope you don't have anything anywhere near that in the moderate risk area today.  But it is bound to bring up memories being on the anniversary.

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