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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats


Quincy
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not much out there but its heading towards Clayton area

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
507 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...  
  
* UNTIL 545 PM MDT.  
  
* AT 507 PM MDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTH  
  OF MOUNT DORA, OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLAYTON, MOVING NORTHEAST  
  AT 30 MPH.  
  
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went west of Clayton but I assume that there will be campers this weekend at the state park

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
534 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...  
  
* UNTIL 615 PM MDT.  
  
* AT 534 PM MDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF  
  CLAYTON LAKE STATE PARK, OR 8 MILES WEST OF CLAYTON, MOVING NORTH  
  AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

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2 hours ago, OhioWX said:

Likely a tornado passing right over or very close to the Denver radar site.

That was close, but no cigar. Two storms collided and there was briefly lots of rotation up above but nothing reported at the surface. Of course a million pictures on Twitter of wall clouds. Denver ATC earning their money this afternoon.

EDIT: Guess there was a funnel cloud and a very brief touchdown E of the FTG radar site, fortunately nothing there but the prairie dogs.

 

image.png.d9d5a02f8dd47f7855938ff8cfd80cb6.png

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MOD rock still for overnight wind

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0737 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2019  
  
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS  
EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK  
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE  
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  
   
..01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE  
  
A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING, BUT THIS  
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN BY SEVERE WIND, SOME OF  
WHICH PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT.  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES APPEAR TO BE  
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING SQUALL WHILE  
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY  
INFLOW OF AIR CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE, IN  
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED  
SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS,  
BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW,  
COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE  
NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES, IS BEGINNING TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING  
DESTABILIZATION.  
  
THE SQUALL LINE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-50 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP  
LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW, WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY  
OVERNIGHT.  WITHIN THIS REGIME, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD  
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 03-05Z, ACCOMPANIED BY  
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  MESOVORTICES EVOLVING  
WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE MAY POSE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES,  
INCLUDING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN EVOLVING BROADER-SCALE LOWER/MID  
TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION WITH AN  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.  AS THIS FEATURE  
CONTINUES TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT, IT MAY  
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING SEVERE WIND/ISOLATED  
TORNADO POTENTIAL.  
  
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG  
A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT (NOW SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER),  
AND AHEAD OF IT (SPREADING EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS), MAY  
CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE  
PRESENCE OF MODEST LINGERING INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT WESTERLY DEEP  
LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW.  
  

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
911 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  BAILEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...  
  SOUTHERN PARMER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...  
  NORTHWESTERN LAMB COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 910 PM CDT, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
  11 MILES WEST OF NEEDMORE, OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MULESHOE,  
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

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While it is not a perfect setup by any means... it would appear that Tuesday is setting up to be the grand finale to this week and a half run of plains severe chances. Discrete modes appear to be highly favored, and early initiation does not seem to be super likely attm with an EML in place east of the sharpening dryline (largely because tomorrow is not progged to have massive amounts of convection like the last few days have). Low-level wind profiles could be a little better imo, but they will be more than adequate enough to get the job done. Numerous discrete/semi-discrete supercells appear likely east of the dryline from NEB/IA into KS and possibly Oklahoma by mid-late afternoon Tuesday as a substantial 70kt H5 wave ejects into the warm sector, all severe hazards are likely, possibly including all significant severe hazards. 

Should be noted that details will probably change to some degree in regard to magnitude and location of threats.

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8 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

MOD rock still for overnight wind

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0737 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2019  
  
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS  
EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT COULD STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK  
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE  
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  
   
..01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE  
  
A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING, BUT THIS  
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN BY SEVERE WIND, SOME OF  
WHICH PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT.  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES APPEAR TO BE  
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING SQUALL WHILE  
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY  
INFLOW OF AIR CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE, IN  
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED  
SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS,  
BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW,  
COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE  
NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES, IS BEGINNING TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING  
DESTABILIZATION.  
  
THE SQUALL LINE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-50 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP  
LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW, WITH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY  
OVERNIGHT.  WITHIN THIS REGIME, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD  
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 03-05Z, ACCOMPANIED BY  
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  MESOVORTICES EVOLVING  
WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE MAY POSE A RISK FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES,  
INCLUDING ALONG THE TRACK OF AN EVOLVING BROADER-SCALE LOWER/MID  
TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE SQUALL LINE INTERSECTION WITH AN  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.  AS THIS FEATURE  
CONTINUES TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT, IT MAY  
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING SEVERE WIND/ISOLATED  
TORNADO POTENTIAL.  
  
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG  
A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT (NOW SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER),  
AND AHEAD OF IT (SPREADING EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS), MAY  
CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE  
PRESENCE OF MODEST LINGERING INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT WESTERLY DEEP  
LAYER AMBIENT MEAN FLOW.  
  

"Moderate rock..." Nirvana fans know what comes next... :D

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Yesterday was the most difficult, successful and ultimately rewarding forecast/nowcast ive ever made while chasing. 

 

We woke up in Dighton, KS. Original target was Syracuse to hedge between W KS and N TX PH. Ended up favoring the panhandle and committed to it at 18z. Problem was N if I-40 was getting rocked and stabilized by elevated junk. So - again at 18z - we committed to roughly Lubbock. This was like a 4.5 hour drive, definitely pushing it. But RAP profiles had us confident it would pay off, given favorable multi-CAM ensemble/deterministic trends and observational/satellite data. About an hour from Amarillo it was evident it would be tough as it was very stable looking. We saw CI imminent as large scale ascent (LSA) - evidenced by increasing coverage and depth of Cu behind the dry line - began to spread towards the dry like. The configuration of the ascent was quite linear and favored rapid upscale growth. 

8YTcoiO.jpg

 

We abandoned the NE New Mexico target because of convective coverage and terrain, even missing a few tornadoes due to it near Clayton. Farther south, deep into the 2% tornado risk and severe watch, we noticed CI attempts ahead of the linear LSA. The first few were not very robust. However the subsequent attempt did it and a sustained updraft was born. Slowly, it matured and eventually began a right deviant motion. 

 

Behind it renewed updraft development occurred but nothing could sustain. Its right deviant motion meant that it would remain discrete, even as LLJ kicked on towards the evening. A classic Great Plains tornadic supercell looked to be developing. 

 

We arrived on scene at roughly 2345 Z I think. A persistent, identifiable cone lowering was evident behind a rain curtain. Could’ve been a tornado, I don’t remember. At some point the storm began to reorganize and a landspout appeared, with swirling dust beneath it. Confirmed tornado warning was issued. Whatever. 

 

As low level flow began to increase, winds backed from SSEly to ESEly, possibly a response to the storm scale pressure falls owing to rotation in the low level mesocyclone. This supercell was extremely organized, with pretty stunning structure to go with it. It was obvious, however, it was encountering a bit of inhibition and RAP profiles suggest the same. 

 

I had thought tornado potential was all but over at this point. Out of nowhere, a ragged, well defined wall cloud showed up behind it. Indeed a new supercell had just blown up in supercell #1’s tracks! Even as this occurred and the first cell was dying, a weak funnel/possible tornado developed. 

 

The rotation on the new cell very rapidly strengthened, perhaps aided by storm 1’s outflow. The mesocyclone rapidly expanded in size and it was obvious this storm meant business. 

 

 

The wall cloud increased in rotational velocities, some of the fastest I had ever seen. Little ribbons of vorticity began to fill in/touch the ground. A rather large tornado was about to develop, it seemed. And then it happened - a tornado was born. 

 

This all culminated in one of my best iPhone shots I’ve ever had, lol. Unfortunately didn’t have the camera on me. Long story. But anyway, what a day. The many adjustments and the fact we had so much stacked against us - but just enough confidence to say “we can get this done” made this the most enjoyable, satisfying and rewarding chases I’ve ever had. Like 5 chasers were out there with us. This day will be hard to top. z3XDrEM.jpg

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Wow. Talk about repositioning after obs analysis. Good job!

Think I’m going to position in the DDC area for today, many similarities to 5/17 for SW KS. Hope a storm or two can manage to go up. Overall setup would seem to favor isolated supercells exploding near the diffuse dryline across SW KS as subtle height falls and a 50+kt H5 jet streak eject into the highly moist/unstable, and weakly capped warm sector. High risk, high reward setup for sure. Storms may not form, but if one or two does, it’ll probably be a discrete supercell capable of all severe hazards, owing to strong instability/shear combo and a strengthening low-level jet. 

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Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Very favorable conditions out ahead of a cell that has developed in KS. Great ZDR arc with nice hail core and already has signs of mid level rotation. Definitely one to watch if it sustains itself.

kscell1.PNG

Right as I post this

  Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe may be increasing across portions of
   central Kansas into south-central Nebraska. Initial discrete modes
   are expected, with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
   tornadoes possible. Later in the evening, storms approaching from
   the west (in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0265) may also pose a severe
   threat. The issuance of a WW is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has been noted along the
   Trego/Ellis County Kansas line within the last few minutes. Some
   deep-layer ascent appears to be glancing the area, with a small
   mid-level perturbation ejecting into the central Plains from
   Colorado, overspreading the dryline, where some low-level
   convergence is present. 

   The ambient environment may be characterized by moderate to strong
   instability (with up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE noted in northern Kansas),
   and strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk shear of 50-70 knots).
   Any storm that can mature and sustain itself in this environment may
   become supercellular. Given the recent increase of effective SRH to
   200-300 m2/s2 associated with a strengthening low level jet (with
   enlarged, curved hodographs depicted by RAP forecast soundings),
   storms may also acquire strong low-level rotation, especially if a
   discrete mode is maintained. Such storms will have the highest
   potential for producing isolated tornadoes. Otherwise, storms will
   be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail as they
   spread into central Nebraska. Sparse instances of very large hail
   also cannot be ruled out given the high amounts of available
   buoyancy in the -10 to -30C layer. 

   Latest high resolution model data depicts an increase in storm
   coverage later this evening, especially in Nebraska, as high theta-e
   air is advected over a baroclinic zone.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

MD 839 graphic

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Tornado Warning
OHC057-113-280345-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0034.190528T0300Z-190528T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1100 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Greene County in west central Ohio...
  Northeastern Montgomery County in west central Ohio...

* Until 1145 PM EDT.

* At 1059 PM EDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was
  observed near Trotwood, moving east at 35 mph.

  TORNADO EMERGENCY for MONTGOMERY COUNTY. This is a PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. Amateur radio
           operators have reported a tornado in Montgomery County.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Huber Heights, Fairborn, Xenia,
  Trotwood, Vandalia, Bellbrook, Moraine, Oakwood, Yellow Springs,
  Wright-Patterson Afb, West Carrollton, Cedarville, Wilberforce,
  Riverside, Clayton, Union and Shiloh.

 

 

Kip Metclaf is near the tornado warned storm

 

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/kip.metcalf.html

 

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The 06z run of the NAM3k is presenting a somewhat-concerning scenario for the DFW area, starting with some fairly discrete storms tomorrow afternoon (they do seem to congeal into a line east of DFW with time).  SPC mentions that some tornadoes are possible, provided that the thermodynamics are in place:

Quote

   SPC AC 280824

   Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   NORTHEAST TX...FAR SOUTHEAST OK...FAR WESTERN AR...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE MIDDLE AND
   UPPER OH VALLEY...

   CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms are expected across portions of the southern
   Plains northeastward through the Ozarks Wednesday.  More isolated
   severe storms are expected from the Mid-Mississippi Valley eastward
   to the Mid-Atlantic.

   ...Synopsis...
   Primary features within the upper pattern early Wednesday morning
   will likely be an upper low centered over NE and a strong high
   centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Moderately strong
   southwesterly flow aloft will likely exist between these two
   features, extending from northern Mexico northeastward into the
   middle MS Valley and then eastward across the OH Valley. A shortwave
   trough is expected to move quickly within this band of enhanced flow
   aloft, moving across the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon
   and reaching the middle MS valley by early Thursday morning.

   At the surface, low centered over the middle MO Valley early
   Wednesday will gradually drift eastward while weakening. This
   eastward motion coupled with the progression of the previously
   mentioned shortwave trough will help push a cold front
   southeastward. By 12Z Thursday, this cold front will likely extend
   from the lower OH Valley southwestward through the Arklatex to the
   Edwards Plateau. 

   ...Southern Plains...Ozark Plateau...
   Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across west TX at the beginning
   of the period Wednesday morning, with development aided by a
   combination of the nocturnal low-level jet and the approaching 
   shortwave trough. Steep lapse rates and strong vertical shear
   suggest the potential for hail with this early development. This
   activity is expected to gradually spread northeastward along the
   frontal boundary, preceding much of the stronger flow aloft and
   ascent attendant to the advancing shortwave trough. As such, the
   strength of these storms may be mitigated somewhat while their
   presence also limits prospects for air mass recovery later during
   the afternoon/early evening when the shortwave moves through. 

   Overlap between the strengthening low and mid-level winds will
   result in large, looping hodographs supportive of updraft
   organization during the late afternoon/early evening. As such, if
   the thermodynamics are supportive, thunderstorms capable of all
   severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail, may develop
   Wednesday evening across north-central/northeast TX, eastern OK, and
   western AR. The development of a strong convective line is also
   possible. Consensus amongst the regional guidance as well as the
   convection-allowing models is that the air mass will recover and
   support additional thunderstorm development during the late
   afternoon and evening. Given this consistency, 30%
   probability/Enhanced Risk was introduced with this forecast. 

   ...OH Valley...Northern Mid-Atlantic...
   An organized line may be ongoing over IN with continued eastward
   progress throughout the day. Thunderstorms are also anticipated in
   the wake of this convective line as an air mass characterized by
   dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s advects into the region. The
   strength of the instability will be mitigated by the amount of
   diurnal heating but even minimal heating should result in enough
   instability for storm initiation. Strong unidirectional flow aloft
   will support fast storm motions and potential for multiple bowing
   line segments.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15% SIG - Slight
   Hail:     30%     - Enhanced

   ..Mosier.. 05/28/2019

I'm hoping this will be my last severe weather event for quite some time; climatologically north-central Texas is at the end of the severe storm season, and it is about time for the summer pattern to take hold.  Especially after what happened in Dayton (not saying that will happen in DFW this time around), I'm hoping I will not need to deal with severe storms for a while.

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