Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

[pbrussell]

Just now, MUWX said:

Jeff City was rated a high end EF3, preliminarily. 

When people pull crap like that it really rustles my jimmies

[Wmsptwx]

Lol EF 5....hmmmmm. More likely EF2 or 3.

[Torchageddon]

15 minutes ago, pbrussell said:

Nice headline msn. 

Good ole' MSN, where every day there is a new piece on Kim K on the front. 

[CryHavoc]

23 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Jeff City was rated a high end EF3, preliminarily. 

For what it's worth, so was Joplin, initially.  There were even people on this board (I think?) saying there were no clear instances of EF4 or EF4+ damage right away and sounding pretty confident in that assessment.

[Wmsptwx]

4 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

For what it's worth, so was Joplin, initially.  There were even people on this board (I think?) saying there were no clear instances of EF4 or EF4+ damage right away and sounding pretty confident in that assessment.

We have a few quacks who compare everything to worst ever events, but ef 3 sounds about right to me from worst we've seen. Thinking construction of buildings contributed to severity of the debris ball.

[CryHavoc]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

We have a few quacks who compare everything to worst ever events, but ef 3 sounds about right to me from worst we've seen. Thinking construction of buildings contributed to severity of the debris ball.

From what we've seen, I agree, but there's a chance (like with Joplin) that we haven't seen the worst damage.  It's really hard to do a damage assessment when the worst hit areas are likely under rescue operations.  For that storm, we saw much of the outskirts of the city where the tornado was weakening or strengthening and didn't see the maxed out EF5 damage until later in the following day or even 48 hours later, if memory serves.

All signs do point to a high end EF3/low EF4 for now though.

[J_Prothro]

9 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

From what we've seen, I agree, but there's a chance (like with Joplin) that we haven't seen the worst damage.  It's really hard to do a damage assessment when the worst hit areas are likely under rescue operations.  For that storm, we saw much of the outskirts of the city where the tornado was weakening or strengthening and didn't see the maxed out EF5 damage until later in the following day or even 48 hours later, if memory serves.

All signs do point to a high end EF3/low EF4 for now though.

I think there'd be deaths if it was a 5

[CryHavoc]

Just now, J_Prothro said:

I think there'd be deaths if it was a 5

Agreed.  For no one to have died points to it likely being a 3... maybe a 4 and we just got lucky?  But for an EF5 to hit a major city and not kill anyone is basically unheard of.

[SluggerWx]

17z HRRR has a string of pearls across the TX panhandle by 5pm CST today.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp_uh001h&rh=2019052316&fh=6&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[Wmsptwx]

1 minute ago, J_Prothro said:

I think there'd be deaths if it was a 5

There was confusion on that last night as grim remarks on scanners sounding as if moving bodies on three or four occasions but today awoke to seemingly great news so glad to hear the scanner chat was overly on negative side/ misunderstood.

[Araqiel]

47 minutes ago, SluggerWx said:

17z HRRR has a string of pearls across the TX panhandle by 5pm CST today.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp_uh001h&rh=2019052316&fh=6&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
 

Outflow boundary sagging across the panhandle could be a feature to watch.

[Brick Tamland]

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Areas affected...TX Panhandle...Far Western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 231847Z - 232045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards,
including very large hail and tornadoes, are expected to develop
across the TX Panhandle this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Based on the wind fields in the 18Z observations a
triple point/surface low exists just west of AMA with the thermal
fields indicating a dryline extends southwestward to HOB. Another
low appears to exist northeast of AMA (near BGD), with a warm front
extending northeastward to the central KS/OK border. Strong moisture
convergence continues in the vicinity of AMA as the composite
outflow/cold front continues to sag slowly southeastward while
strong southeasterly surface winds and moisture advection continues
south of it. 

The air mass along and south/east of these boundaries continues to
destabilize. Cumulus field across east-central NM/western TX
Panhandle continues to deepen and the 18Z AMA sounding shows very
little convective inhibition remaining. Overall expectation is for
convective initiation to occur around 20Z. An initially discrete
mode is anticipated, with supercells capable of all severe hazards
likely. Tornadoes and very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in
diameter) may occur, particularly as storms move east/northeastward
into the central and eastern TX Panhandle where surface winds are
more southeasterly. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a
strong, long-track tornado may occur if storms are able to remain
discrete enough and do not grow upscale.

[Brick Tamland]

Another one for northern OK and southern KS.

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0752
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

   Areas affected...Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 231842Z - 231945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation occurring along/south of a warm
   front. Large hail is the primary threat, and a few tornadoes are
   possible south/near the front. Watch likely, though timing
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Regional surface observations and objective
   mesoanalysis shows an east/west oriented warm front over the
   northern tier of counties in Oklahoma, moving quickly northward, on
   the precipice of entering southern Kansas. Regional satellite shows
   boundary-layer cumulus developing along the front and steadily
   obtaining greater vertical depth. Regional radar shows weak echoes
   with this activity. It appears this will be a mechanism for
   convective development over the next few hours. Storms that develop
   along the front should become quickly elevated, although any storms
   that linger or are able to ride along the boundary could pose a
   tornado threat. However, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment
   north of the boundary is quite support of large hail (MUCAPE
   2000-2500 J/kg and effective shear 50-55 kt).  

   South of the warm front, additional convective development is
   possible in the warm sector. Here, temperatures are in the low 80s F
   with dew points in the low 70s F. Any storms that develop here will
   also pose a large hail threat. A tornado threat will also exist with
   this activity that resides in the warm sector or as it crosses the
   warm front.

   A watch is being considered for this region, however the timing of
   watch issuance remains uncertain.

[Brick Tamland]

[cheese007]

In DC of all places under a tornado warning 

[OortCloud]

33 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

In DC of all places under a tornado warning 

La Plata, Maryland had an F5 in 2002 and some people didn't even know what it was. 

[OortCloud]

PBRussell, I recognized your avatar immediately.  May 4, 2003.  The northernmost one is the one that hit my parents' house. 

[high risk]

14 minutes ago, OortCloud said:

La Plata, Maryland had an F5 in 2002 and some people didn't even know what it was. 

            minor point (and realizing that it's unrelated to this forum), La Plata was reclassified as an EF4 (and it just barely qualified for that rating).  

[OortCloud]

3 hours ago, CryHavoc said:

From what we've seen, I agree, but there's a chance (like with Joplin) that we haven't seen the worst damage.  It's really hard to do a damage assessment when the worst hit areas are likely under rescue operations.  For that storm, we saw much of the outskirts of the city where the tornado was weakening or strengthening and didn't see the maxed out EF5 damage until later in the following day or even 48 hours later, if memory serves.

All signs do point to a high end EF3/low EF4 for now though.

I've been painstakingly going down High and Capital Streets on Google Street View at the places Hubs and I frequent or walk past when we visit there, and then looking up these establishments' Facebook pages to see if they have posted today.  I can happily report that the Antiquarium comic book shop, though not very sturdy-looking, is still standing, as the proprietor said, being one of the luckier buildings on his block.  https://goo.gl/maps/Pt5y3ZmK1qR1hnA77

I've checked on several churches in the area, and to my actual surprise, the small Temple Beth-El is OK.  https://goo.gl/maps/dxp3ki6eVTBfyUEe7

This furniture store, however, sustained heavy damage.  I saw it in an aerial video.  https://goo.gl/maps/atNCoDN1TMaYJidV6

Spectator's, one of the most popular bars in the area, wasn't damaged I guess, as they have posted they are fine and open for business:https://goo.gl/maps/3aQEfYrBhKK1H2L97

[OortCloud]

39 minutes ago, high risk said:

            minor point (and realizing that it's unrelated to this forum), La Plata was reclassified as an EF4 (and it just barely qualified for that rating).  

OK thanks--didn't know! 

[Chinook]

The first tornado warning of the day is in the Oklahoma panhandle. This storm is marginally in the stable air. Nevertheless, there may be a tornado tracking toward Beaver, OK. Storms near Amarillo are also near or in the cold air sector. 

[jojo762]

Don’t like being “that guy” but that sagging frontal boundary (that will be reinforced by outflow from the storms to its north) is probably going to dramatically lower the tornado threat today... there will probably be a sweet spot somewhere south of the warm front where a supercell could do something big, but current connective trends cast doubt on that.

Supercells currently developing INVOF Lubbock will likely have best chance later on.

[jojo762]

Supercell north of Pampa appears it’ll need a TOR warning soon.

EDIT: supercells southwest of LUB as well.

[DanLarsen34]

Everything is pretty blobby or unimpressive looking, but this cell approaching Dodge City has some decent rotation as it races towards the city. 

[JoMo]

Carl Junction tornado and Golden City tornado were EF-3. 

[mob1]

Confirmed tornado with this. 

[mob1]

Two tornadoes on the ground now in Texas embedded in that celll cluster. The southern one has a chance to go a while if it can stave off the crapvection around it. 

[shaggy]

Lubbock cell taking on that hooky look

[mob1]

Large wedge in the ground with that storm NW of Canadian TX. Looks pretty legit but sometimes pictures can be a bit deceiving. 

[SluggerWx]

Brett Adair is saying on his feed they just encountered a wedge tornado at close range. Tuned in just as they escaped the circulation. NW of Canadian crossed 83. Confirmed debris & ongoing power flashes.