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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats


Quincy
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It looks like the HRRR may have overcompensated a bit with trending north with the warm front. If one adjusts a bit south based on trends/radar imagery, it would bring the warm front to roughly or perhaps just north of I-40. It does depend on how far south early day convection extends, meaning if any surging outflow shunts northward lift of the front. With that said, with such an anomalously strong daytime low-level jet, one has to wonder of the warm front would not keep lifting north for a bit. I do think that the HRRR might be a bit overdone with discrete convection north of I-40 from the eastern Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma, as a result, but we'll see.

Anyway, the 12z MAF/Midland, TX sounding is very telling. The fact that we have a volatile, high-end severe environment already in place at 7 in the morning and this far west, should be alarming. The environment near MAF will advect northeast through the day with the greatest parameter space likely from the Caprock region and Northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma.

MAF.thumb.gif.f80df42615546803f20af311070ab8b3.gif

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Just now, okiestormgeek said:

KOCO to a lesser extent and KFOR in OKC are pretty notorious with the locals for fear mongering. KWTV and David Payne are the most professional IMO. 

I agree with that 100%

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News 9 is the "best," but is by no means perfect. I avoid Mike Morgan out of principle for his 5/20/13 coverage, telling people to get in their cars and drive south
Moreso 5/31, he singlehandedly had people running south in sheer terror when the supercell moved into OKC. It's a shame too, he knows his stuff and was great on 5/3/99.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

All current meaningful convection is mostly north of the high risk area... what’s everyone complaining about?

you realize its 60 and pouring rain in OKC right now, right? and they are under a high risk.

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

All current convection is mostly north of the high risk area... what’s everyone complaining about?

Nobody is complaining.  Experienced professional meteorologists are providing objective analysis of the situation.

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21 minutes ago, Quincy said:

It looks like the HRRR may have overcompensated a bit with trending north with the warm front. If one adjusts a bit south based on trends/radar imagery, it would bring the warm front to roughly or perhaps just north of I-40. It does depend on how far south early day convection extends, meaning if any surging outflow shunts northward lift of the front. With that said, with such an anomalously strong daytime low-level jet, one has to wonder of the warm front would not keep lifting north for a bit. I do think that the HRRR might be a bit overdone with discrete convection north of I-40 from the eastern Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma, as a result, but we'll see.

Anyway, the 12z MAF/Midland, TX sounding is very telling. The fact that we have a volatile, high-end severe environment already in place at 7 in the morning and this far west, should be alarming. The environment near MAF will advect northeast through the day with the greatest parameter space likely from the Caprock region and Northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma.

MAF.thumb.gif.f80df42615546803f20af311070ab8b3.gif

Agreed with your assessment 100%.  I think we need to view these HRRR solutions cautiously, given the northward bias in the portrayal of current activity.

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

you realize its 60 and pouring rain in OKC right now, right? and they are under a high risk.

You realize an hour ago that meteorologists far more experienced than anyone in here extended that high risk to include them, correct? Look at literally every other portion of the high risk and there is zero meaningful deep convection. 

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

Nobody is complaining.  Experienced professional meteorologists are providing objective analysis of the situation.

So you’ve got more experience than me. In a typical Plains setup i would agree that MCS in NW OK pretty much confines the front to I-40, maybe even S. But.. this is anomalous for the Plains. Would argue the LL flow keeps that boundary N of 40.. perhaps closer to 412. Your thoughts from experience? 

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Just now, jojo762 said:

You realize an hour ago that meteorologists far more experienced than anyone in here extended that high risk to include them, correct? Look at literally every other portion of the high risk and there is zero meaningful deep convection. 

sounds like the only person complaining is you. 

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