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AT’s Weather Forecast for Rest of Year


ApacheTrout
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After consulting various indices, anagrams, the Farmer's Almanac, Twitter, and every predictive animal and insect, this is what I've come up with for the remainder of the year.  The r2 value approaches 1, and the 95% CI is very small, so I’m feeling very confident in this.

D5362DE5-C98A-4604-AE4F-A661B800C9AF.jpeg

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33 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I see you're really going out on a limb with that summer forecast. Good luck!!!

Thank you.  It took a lot of hard work, and I'm proud of not giving up when things were most dire.  Here's a bit more explanation:

 

In Depth Temperature Analysis

If you look closely, you can see that the mean high temp line goes through each of the boxes differently:

The Warming Up Period (AKA Deep Summer/Too Late to Install): About Normal

Greatest Chance for HHH Period: Slightly Cooler than Normal.  We'll still experience routine calls for Epic HHH, but it ain't happening.  Lots of the last H, but very little of the first two.

The Cooling Off Period: Below Normal

Snow Chances Epoch: Well Below Normal

 

Gonna Be Wet - Get Over It

As for precipitation: Wet.  Damp.  Borderline moldy.  Maybe three consecutive days of uninterrupted sunshine in July (the 5th, 6th, and 7th) and definitely sunny and dry the  entire week of August 11.  But's that all we can expect.  Oh, and flood insurance policies should be renewed prior to September 23.  Widespread flooding.  Coastal erosion.  Permanent Mean Sea Level increase of 60 mm.

 

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46 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Good to see that you have "snow chances" noted for November and December.  Pretty bold call right there.

Normally, I bet in favor of AN temps, but not this fall.  The AN temps and rain start on Dec 24, too late to affect the period's overall meme.

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1 hour ago, klw said:

It is not covered in AT's post, but I also like the odds of our leaves changing color here in NNE in late September into mid-October.

Agree.  If you have hardcore science to back it up, all the better. But gut feelings count for so much ‘round here, so that’s good, too.

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18 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Agree.  If you have hardcore science to back it up, all the better. But gut feelings count for so much ‘round here, so that’s good, too.

Better than science, I have pictures.  As you can see in two of the pictures, in October the leaves have color but not in the warmer sun tanning months.

 

fall 2012 206 resize.jpg

134 resize.jpg

sunning.jpg

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  • 2 months later...
On 5/13/2019 at 9:45 AM, ApacheTrout said:

After consulting various indices, anagrams, the Farmer's Almanac, Twitter, and every predictive animal and insect, this is what I've come up with for the remainder of the year.  The r2 value approaches 1, and the 95% CI is very small, so I’m feeling very confident in this.

D5362DE5-C98A-4604-AE4F-A661B800C9AF.jpeg

Much better than Cranky 

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