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Bubbler86

Central PA Spring/Summer 2019

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a friend of mine over near Shickshinny Lake in rural Luzerne County PA  actually posted a pic up of hail near ping pong ball sized hail with the cluster that moved through Luzerne County near 8p EDT, with a bunch of quarter-sized still in the yard after 20+ minutes of melting time.

Also, in the City of Nanticoke on the other side of the river, I saw a bunch of friends who put up pics of tree damage (some pretty big and healthy ones) from the first cluster of storms a couple of hours earlier, with power out in several sections of the city.

hopefully they all took my instruction and reported the pics and the hail/damage to the NWS in BInghamton, but we'll see in the final records.

the radar was actually looking decently impressive by eastern PA standards this afternoon.

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Second warned storm of the night for Tamaqua. Missed the first one as I was on the road in the bus down by Duncannon, but home now. Wife told me a house nearby was struck by lightning in the first storm. She said the storm was pretty bad. 

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You won't believe how much it rained here. We got at least 2 inches. It was just one storm after another. Also lost power twice. First storm was at 5 pm and the last one was around 2 am and there was ANOTHER cluster of storms that barely missed us at 3:30 or else it would have rained more lmao

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1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

You won't believe how much it rained here. We got at least 2 inches. It was just one storm after another. Also lost power twice. First storm was at 5 pm and the last one was around 2 am and there was ANOTHER cluster of storms that barely missed us at 3:30 or else it would have rained more lmao

I haven't seen lightning like that in a couple years. No sleep for several hours, as the rain pelting the house and the thunder and lightning, WOW. 

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31 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I haven't seen lightning like that in a couple years. No sleep for several hours, as the rain pelting the house and the thunder and lightning, WOW. 

Yeah that was a nice lightning show for sure.

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VERY tropical like radar presentation yesterday as to the training of lines (vs. training of specific storms) over the same areas repeatedly.  Similar to feeder bands.  

 

Now tomorrow is going to be one of the nicest days we see for a long time!

 

 

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I took the day off to watch the tornado outbreak in the plains. Everything I've seen in the last week-plus has reminded me of the springs and summers I like. Tornado on the ground now in Cottle County, Texas. 

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Then you will love this Mr. Atom I may have to break out the Cookies and Chem Dawg cross for this one.

 

 

Multiple ingredients are present Thursday afternoon and evening for a rather significant severe storm outbreak with numerous fast-moving supercells and mini bow echoes within short TSRA lines. SPC upgraded the previous Slight Risk for Day 2 to an Enhanced Risk for much of our CWA. This upgrades seems warranted as llvl directional shear is impressive and strong leading to broad-loop hodographs and the base of 50kt westerly and WNW winds only around 5KFT agl during the mid afternoon to early evening hours Thursday. This is a classic supercell and potential large hail-producing environment as storm relative inflow/updraft helicity will be unusually high INVOF sfc warm front/lee trough across Ncent PA and the Susq Valley during the afternoon hours. Low LCLs under 3000 FT AGL covering much of Central and Eastern PA and strong LLVL shear will lead to 0-1km EHIs of 2-4(m^2/sec^2) near the warm front/lee trough over the central and eastern zones between 21Z Thu and 00Z Fri. The threat of several tornado-producing supercells will occur across this same region from mid afternoon to around dusk. In addition to the anticipated hail and isolated tornado threat, the supercells and their strong updrafts will occasionally collapse into fast moving mini bow/spearhead echoes that have the potential for producing localized, straight line winds in excess of 75 mph and swaths of wind damage. Storm total QPF will likely average between 3 and 6 tenths of an inch given the fast storm motion. Localized one inch amounts are possible where two or more TSRA occur. In the wake of the Thursday`s active weather, a slightly cooler and drier day is in store for Friday. By Saturday the humidity will begin to return along with a chance of mainly diurnal showers/storms. as a weak shortwave once again races over the top of the eastern ridge. We look to get a break on Sunday as the 12Z models show a mainly dry day, but by the Monday-Tuesday timeframe more showers become possible as we stay in fast flow aloft near the top of the subtropical ridge.

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SPC AC 220600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes will be possible over a part of the central and southern Plains Thursday. Other severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and large hail are expected from a portion of the Northeast States into the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A significant shortwave trough will rotate through the base of an upper low centered over the Great Basin 12Z Thursday and into the central High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Farther east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will crest an upper ridge anchored over the southeast U.S. and move through the Great Lakes before turning southeast into the Northeast States Thursday evening. At the surface a warm or stationary front will likely extend from the middle MS Valley region southwest into southern KS. A dryline will reside near the TX/NM border. Warm front is expected to lift slowly north through central and eastern KS, while the dryline mixes through west TX during the day. Farther east a surface low attending the northern-stream shortwave trough will move through southern Canada while trailing cold front advances southeast through the Great Lakes. A warm front will advance east into a portion of the Northeast States. ...Central and southern Plains... Elevated storms may be ongoing over a portion of western and central KS north of the warm front early Thursday and could pose some risk for large hail. A very moist and unstable airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 F will reside in the warm sector from southern KS to OK and TX beneath 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, contributing to moderate to strong instability (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). Forcing for ascent attending the northeast-ejecting upper jet will glance western portion of the warm sector and in vicinity of the dryline that should mix east into the TX Panhandle and west TX. Storms development is probable along this boundary from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS where convergence will be maximized. Vertical wind profiles with 45-55 kt effective bulk shear will support supercells, and 0-2km hodographs size will also increase as the low-level jet strengthens during the late afternoon and evening. Activity will spread northeast with all hazards possible with storms remaining in warm sector. Some storms may eventually move or develop north of the warm front, but strong effective bulk shear and moderate MUCAPE will still support potential for supercells with large hail. Overnight the entrance region of the upper jet and merging of Pacific front with dryline should promote additional severe thunderstorm development across west TX. ...Northeast States through Ohio Valley... The warm sector will gradually moisten west of the warm front during the day with low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km lapse rates, along with diabatic warming contributing to modest instability (800-1200 J/kg MLCAPE). Current indications are that storms will most likely develop along and ahead of southeast-advancing cold front spread southeast through the OH Valley and Northeast States during the afternoon and evening. Winds will strengthen as the mid-level speed max attending the shortwave trough approaches the region with effective shear supporting supercells. These storms may produce large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes as they move southeast through the region later Thursday afternoon into the evening.

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Stuck close to the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge with strong flow aloft is my idea of a good late spring summer. It would be great if it would dominate summer again like the mid 80's through early 90's. . Never the less I have known for the last few month's I would love the spring and summer kind of a no brainer for stupid old me. 

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:)

lDay 4 (Saturday) Shortwave trough will crest upper ridge and move through the Great Lakes during the day before turning southeast into the Northeast States Saturday night. Surface low accompanying this feature will move through eastern Canada while trailing cold front advances southeast through the Great Lakes and Northeast States. Western extension of front should stall across the Central Plains. A dryline will reside near the TX/NM border. Low 60s F dewpoints will advect through the OH Valley warm sector Saturday contributing to modest instability. Thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the cold front located across the southern Great Lakes and spread southeast into the OH Valley and a portion of the Northeast States. Strong unidirectional wind profiles attending the northern-stream trough will be sufficient for a few organized severe storms. Other strong to severe storms will be possible along portion of the front over the Central Plains where strong instability will reside. Development along West Texas dryline remains uncertain at this time given apparent weak convergence and presence of low-amplitude ridge.

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1 hour ago, Flatheadsickness said:

Then you will love this Mr. Atom I may have to break out the Cookies and Chem Dawg cross for this one.

 

 

Multiple ingredients are present Thursday afternoon and evening for a rather significant severe storm outbreak with numerous fast-moving supercells and mini bow echoes within short TSRA lines. SPC upgraded the previous Slight Risk for Day 2 to an Enhanced Risk for much of our CWA. This upgrades seems warranted as llvl directional shear is impressive and strong leading to broad-loop hodographs and the base of 50kt westerly and WNW winds only around 5KFT agl during the mid afternoon to early evening hours Thursday. This is a classic supercell and potential large hail-producing environment as storm relative inflow/updraft helicity will be unusually high INVOF sfc warm front/lee trough across Ncent PA and the Susq Valley during the afternoon hours. Low LCLs under 3000 FT AGL covering much of Central and Eastern PA and strong LLVL shear will lead to 0-1km EHIs of 2-4(m^2/sec^2) near the warm front/lee trough over the central and eastern zones between 21Z Thu and 00Z Fri. The threat of several tornado-producing supercells will occur across this same region from mid afternoon to around dusk. In addition to the anticipated hail and isolated tornado threat, the supercells and their strong updrafts will occasionally collapse into fast moving mini bow/spearhead echoes that have the potential for producing localized, straight line winds in excess of 75 mph and swaths of wind damage. Storm total QPF will likely average between 3 and 6 tenths of an inch given the fast storm motion. Localized one inch amounts are possible where two or more TSRA occur. In the wake of the Thursday`s active weather, a slightly cooler and drier day is in store for Friday. By Saturday the humidity will begin to return along with a chance of mainly diurnal showers/storms. as a weak shortwave once again races over the top of the eastern ridge. We look to get a break on Sunday as the 12Z models show a mainly dry day, but by the Monday-Tuesday timeframe more showers become possible as we stay in fast flow aloft near the top of the subtropical ridge.

Someone has been to DC

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Becoming concerned over the potential for a tornado outbreak across parts of NY, PA, into NJ tomorrow. Lots of questions to be addressed and mesoscale influences will likely play a key role, but there are numerous ingredients which will be available tomorrow. Given degree of wind shear (along with high values of bulk shear, effective shear, and effective helicity), steep lapse rates (potentially with an EML plume), and strong s/w, if ingredients can fall in place tomorrow could be very nasty. If confidence in timing of ingredients increases (may not happen until tomorrow) I can see an upgrade to Mod risk being a possibility 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Becoming concerned over the potential for a tornado outbreak across parts of NY, PA, into NJ tomorrow. Lots of questions to be addressed and mesoscale influences will likely play a key role, but there are numerous ingredients which will be available tomorrow. Given degree of wind shear (along with high values of bulk shear, effective shear, and effective helicity), steep lapse rates (potentially with an EML plume), and strong s/w, if ingredients can fall in place tomorrow could be very nasty. If confidence in timing of ingredients increases (may not happen until tomorrow) I can see an upgrade to Mod risk being a possibility 

Ugh...wish I didn't have to go to NYC tomorrow. I'd have liked to have been closer to home, like the Sands Casino in Bethlehem...

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3 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Nice crisp, cool morning. “Fall preview”, lol.


.

It is STILL fairly crisp.  Less sun and definitely feels colder than yesterday.  House temp is down to 62.  Might have to fire up the heat!

 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Becoming concerned over the potential for a tornado outbreak across parts of NY, PA, into NJ tomorrow. Lots of questions to be addressed and mesoscale influences will likely play a key role, but there are numerous ingredients which will be available tomorrow. Given degree of wind shear (along with high values of bulk shear, effective shear, and effective helicity), steep lapse rates (potentially with an EML plume), and strong s/w, if ingredients can fall in place tomorrow could be very nasty. If confidence in timing of ingredients increases (may not happen until tomorrow) I can see an upgrade to Mod risk being a possibility 

Thanks for keeping us sharp on this.  Frankly I sort of over looked tomorrow as a typical after t-storm today so good to know we need to keep an eye on it.   

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thanks for keeping us sharp on this.  Frankly I sort of over looked tomorrow as a typical after t-storm today so good to know we need to keep an eye on it.   

This lead s/w energy though could significantly reduce the potential 

 

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