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Central PA Spring/Summer 2019


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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 448 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A potentially interesting situation is hinted at next week with the upper high parked over the SE US. A wave in the Bahamas is brought under

this ridge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the ECMWF/GFS/Canadian all remarkably close in bringing a possible tropical cyclone toward

the NE gulf states perhaps as early as later Monday. By the middle of next week there are hints that whatever moves ashore could be

heading north up the Appalachians toward the OH Valley or NERN US, or at least a stream of deeper tropical moisture advecting up this way

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1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Since you all are the only real active thread in PA, when is this relief supposed to arrive? Overnight? It still feels humid as heck to me-and the AC is broke at work so the last 3 days have been misery! It seems every fall it’s hot into November....

Not to sure of your location but central and eastern pa will receive the most benefits from this front. A nice easterly flow off the Atlantic. Southwest pa will see the least amount of cooling from the front. To answer your question overnight.   From northeast to southwest.  If the gfs is right we might see some decent relief middle of next week and beyond. Euro is different with tropical weather just off the coast and less of a cooldown. 

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44 minutes ago, daxx said:

Not to sure of your location but central and eastern pa will receive the most benefits from this front. A nice easterly flow off the Atlantic. Southwest pa will see the least amount of cooling from the front. To answer your question overnight.   From northeast to southwest.  If the gfs is right we might see some decent relief middle of next week and beyond. Euro is different with tropical weather just off the coast and less of a cool down. 

Thanks for the info! I’m in the laurel mountains a little SE of pgh....no one has posted in our thread since 8/23...lol I always come to your board and the ENSO thread to see what might be coming up! 

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14 hours ago, canderson said:

Nice cool, grey day out today. It's gorgeous!

Not if you were in SWPA (Pittsburgh area). I took a PSU soccer team out there for a game in Pleasant Hills, and the gray drizzlies ended as I was coming down off the Laurels, and it was sunny and 86 out there during the afternoon...

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On 9/12/2019 at 9:35 PM, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Thanks for the info! I’m in the laurel mountains a little SE of pgh....no one has posted in our thread since 8/23...lol I always come to your board and the ENSO thread to see what might be coming up! 

Thanks for posting here!

This thread gets much more active as we approach winter...

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9 hours ago, sauss06 said:

Could be 90 by next weekend. 

we                                                   need                                       rain

12z Euro 2m temps.

Saturday 87

Sunday 89

Monday 92

Tuesday 88

Wednesday 96

These temperatures are for MDT.  Rainfall looks next to nothing.  Hopefully Euro is wrong!

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16 minutes ago, canderson said:

Running more than 2" behind normal now since June. Yup. 

The US map does not officially put us in any of the drought categories but if we get little to no rain the next couple weeks I bet we get lit up with some pretty fall colors on that map....maybe even D1.

Northeast

Light showers dropped 0.5-1.5 inches of rain across northern sections of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Although offshore in the Atlantic Ocean, Dorian came close enough to far eastern Maine that 1.5-4 inches of rain accumulated. Elsewhere, it was mostly dry across the Northeast. The small D0 areas in upstate New York and New England remained unchanged as this week’s light rain were not enough for removal, but great enough (including last week’s higher rainfall) to prevent expansion. Farther south, however, conditions have recently been drier in the mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians with slightly above-normal temperatures (1-3 degs F). As a result, between 50-75% of normal precipitation has fallen during the past 60-days, accumulating deficits of 2-4 inches. For the week ending Sep. 8, 33, 63 and 74% of the topsoil moisture in West Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware, respectively, was rated short to very short, according to the USDA. Therefore, D0 was added to the Delmarva Peninsula, and expanded in southern West Virginia.

 

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11 hours ago, daxx said:

Haha!  Very true.   I am looking at it this way, let us bake until mid November.   After that let Winter begin and last until April.

I agree with this!

A Below normal temperature pattern does not do us any good until mid November!

The days of heat are numbered. I’m getting ready to start winter weather tracking in another 2 months !

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16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I agree with this!

A Below normal temperature pattern does not do us any good until mid November!

The days of heat are numbered. I’m getting ready to start winter weather tracking in another 2 months !

Yes... I'm not worrying about warm weather this time of year.  Give me a good pattern when it counts.  Don't get me wrong I would prefer it much cooler but I'm not sweating it right now.  Definitely a warm period coming up but some models are backing off on a on endless heat.

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11 hours ago, daxx said:

Yes... I'm not worrying about warm weather this time of year.  Give me a good pattern when it counts.  Don't get me wrong I would prefer it much cooler but I'm not sweating it right now.  Definitely a warm period coming up but some models are backing off on a on endless heat.

absolutely.  No need to waste a good pattern/cold until it really can work for us.

Something i'm playing with in my mind is watching the forcing between the arctic domains vs Enso/Equatorial regions as low sea ice continues to be something to watch in the coming years. Cant help but think that low ice could play an effect on polar regions indicies being less forceful as a result.  While i realize it only has to be cold enough to snow, when polar regions are warming, the amount of cold in polar regions has to play into the cards somehow, with areas in between being the ones most notably affected, and the time it takes to manufacture enough cold to be able to affect our region favorably has me wondering.  Hope my theory makes sense.  

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