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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook
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In the category of "obliterating existing records"... :o

After the recent snowstorm in western MT, with over 4 feet of snow around Glacier National Park, Cut Bank dropped to 6F on 9/30/19.  This shatters the old daily record of 19F set in 1959.

This morning (10/1/19), Cut Bank dropped to 1F.  The old daily record was 14F, set in 1950.

  

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On 9/27/2019 at 2:22 PM, mayjawintastawm said:

wow!

On another note, looks like Denver will set an all time #1 warmest September if forecast temps hold. Previous record was +6.0 in 2015, we're headed for about +6.1 or 6.2. 

And Centennial, near where I live, only has records going back a few decades, but is now at +8.1 for the month. Bone dry too.

Missed it by that much. Sept turned out to average 69.3 degrees, thanks to a slightly cooler than predicted low temp the last couple days of the month, with the old record of 69.4. Of note, however, is that the 2nd warmest Sept came right after the 3rd warmest August. I don't know where to look, but I'd bet that was the warmest Jul-Aug combination on record.

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11 hours ago, Chinook said:

Everybody knows fire and snow don't go together. But maybe they do. Also, the pink for the winter storm warning is close to the magenta for the red flag warning.

 

"I've seen fire, and I've seen snow... I've seen tornadoes and some hail like you'd never know... I've seen blizzards, heat, and drought that never ends... So I know that I'm in Colorado again."

- cue the tomatoes..... (huge apologies to JT but couldn't resist)

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It looked like a slightly below average snowfall season for Denver when I ran my initial simulation. But that blend assumed a Neutral with warm waters in Nino 3.4 staying west of 140W. It seems like they'll spread east enough to be an El Nino.

Ultimately I think its a fairly seasonal winter for temperatures for NM and CO, but with a handful of very strong, wet storms. If the MJO gets stuck in phase 8/1/2 in winter,  like it is now, the current system set to be super cold for the time of year should show up again at some point, even if its not til March, but further South and more moisture.

My original weighting was 1953-54, 1983-84, 1992-93, 1995-96 (x3), 2009-10 (x2), 2018-19, but I can't really justify keeping 1995 that strong, even though Summer 1995 and the QBO are similar to 2019. I'm planning to have my outlook out later this week - I have the new weighting with the same years, it just takes a while to manually re-do the maps and data mining.

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Yesterday, Great Falls had a daily record 7.2" snow (old record: 1.7", 1975). That brought the 2019-20 total to 26.5". That is by far the earliest Great Falls has ever reached 26.5" seasonal snowfall. The previous mark occurred on November 27, 1985 when Great Falls reached 26.4". The previous highest figure through October 8 was 13.2" from 1934.

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21 hours ago, raindancewx said:

It looked like a slightly below average snowfall season for Denver when I ran my initial simulation. But that blend assumed a Neutral with warm waters in Nino 3.4 staying west of 140W. It seems like they'll spread east enough to be an El Nino.

Ultimately I think its a fairly seasonal winter for temperatures for NM and CO, but with a handful of very strong, wet storms. If the MJO gets stuck in phase 8/1/2 in winter,  like it is now, the current system set to be super cold for the time of year should show up again at some point, even if its not til March, but further South and more moisture.

My original weighting was 1953-54, 1983-84, 1992-93, 1995-96 (x3), 2009-10 (x2), 2018-19, but I can't really justify keeping 1995 that strong, even though Summer 1995 and the QBO are similar to 2019. I'm planning to have my outlook out later this week - I have the new weighting with the same years, it just takes a while to manually re-do the maps and data mining.

Thanks for explaining. Look forward to seeing your forecast. FWIW, some of those analog years you mentioned featured above average snowfall for Denver — 83-84 in particular. So one can still reasonably hope, for now...

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Fort Collins had a high of 78 degrees, but it dropped to the lower 40's or upper 30's. As of 1 hour ago, there was graupel, up to diameter of 1/4", that covered the grass up to essentially a snow-depth of 1", with thunder and lightning. I was east of downtown Loveland near Hwy 34  at the time. Now it's 32 degrees.

 

sCqPLz1.jpg

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My place got about 2" and we have very light snow now. Denver must have been getting the heavy snow at 9:15AM.

 

Interesting note: there are some synoptic similarities to Oct 30-Nov 3, 1991, which was a large snowstorm on Colorado's plains all the way up to Duluth, where it was a very heavy storm. It was concurrent the "The Perfect Storm" so I like to call it "The Perfect Snowstorm."

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