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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook
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The 8/15-8/25 average high in Albuquerque was 94.3F - tied with 2007 as the hottest since 1931 for that period. 1973 and 1948 are very close too.

August probably won't quite reach the intensity of the heat of 2011, the record here, but we're pretty close - I think 92.8F now, and 2011 finished at 93.8F. Of course...2011 was a good winter here, and 1973, 1948, and 2007 were all decent to great too. I have a model that looks at snow in the SW, and the hot dry Summers are not actually the ones that precede the worst winters typically. It is typically the hot/wet winters that do, like 2017. The cold June to warm August transition has happened in decent winters like 2009 and 2000. If anything, our hottest Augusts tend to precede one very cold winter month here. Pretty sure Roswell hit 109F the other day, which is stupid hot for this late in the year, with some elevation.

 

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On 9/3/2019 at 5:40 AM, smokeybandit said:

After moving from the mid Atlantic to Colorado, it's a bummer this forum is dead compared to the Mid Atlantic one.

It wakes up when we have something to talk about (drought and heat doesn't inspire much), but yeah, we could use a few more posters.

And right, it's always better to be out enjoying it than inside kvetching about it online... :)

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Extreme heat continued in parts of Colorado today.

Pueblo reached 102°, which tied that city's September record, which was set on September 2, 2019. Today was also Pueblo's 3rd 100° day this month. Prior to 2019, Pueblo had only 5 100° or above readings in September. Records go back to 1888.

Denver also had a high temperature of 98°, which was just above the daily record of 97° from 1899 and 2013. On September 2, Denver had its first-ever 100° reading in September. Denver has now had 3 high temperatures of 98° or above this month. Prior to 2019, the monthly record had been 97°. Records go back to 1872.

A cold front is now moving through the state. Temperatures should be lower tomorrow.

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Thanks Don for chiming in on the Mtn West page... Out of curiosity I looked at Denver's climate pages for September today. Records have been kept for 148 years. We moved to CO in August 2010. Of the 30 daily record highs in September, 14 have been set since we moved here. That is COMPLETELY nuts.

And the expected cold front will cool temperatures dramatically. To just a few degrees above normal.

Wake me up when September ends.

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Fort Collins had a high of 97 yesterday, breaking a record of 95 set in 1899. (Weird, usually the cold records from from 1899). Surprisingly, it got cloudy and rained for a bit, and then it was about 91 degrees with mostly cloudy after the rain! Fort Collins has had 18 days of above normal temperatures since 8/15.

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15 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Thanks Don for chiming in on the Mtn West page... Out of curiosity I looked at Denver's climate pages for September today. Records have been kept for 148 years. We moved to CO in August 2010. Of the 30 daily record highs in September, 14 have been set since we moved here. That is COMPLETELY nuts.

 

As you point out,  this record warmth is obviously your fault. 

 

 

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7 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

We finally got enough rain (I'm guessing 0.7") to keep the sprinklers off today. Feels better. Need more!

Happy for you. Seriously. We didn’t get nearly that much due west of Denver near Golden. More generally, what a horrible pattern since roughly early July onwards with a few exceptions. So hot and dry. Glad this isn’t winter as I’d take hot and dry now over any other time of the year. Still, not good for the flora (naturally occurring, don’t care about green lawns in this semi-arid climate) and hope this doesn’t persist. 

 

 

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Tentatively looking at a US temperature pattern for winter that is a blend of 1953-54, 1983-84 (x2), 1995-96, 2009-10 (x2), 2017-18. 

Something like 2004, 2013, 2004, 1995 for precipitation. Idea is to make the West a bit wetter than the blend above since it isn't warm enough for Nino 4 probably. These aren't my forecast years, but August/September heat has narrowed down which SST combos are linking correctly with US weather. I should point out, the SOI in September is -16 or so, our region rarely has terrible winters after a big -SOI in September. SOI looks pretty negative through 9/17, I'm expecting it to be under -4 at least.

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On 9/3/2019 at 5:40 AM, smokeybandit said:

After moving from the mid Atlantic to Colorado, it's a bummer this forum is dead compared to the Mid Atlantic one.

Welcome to Colorado - I made the same move 2.5 years ago. I was a frequent poster in the Mid-Atlantic forum dating back to EUSWX days (I joined back when there were no sub-forums) and miss the energy there but as another poster said the trade-off is that we get to live here :)

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I think this is a fairly cold winter for a lot of the US, but not necessarily a common pattern. Most of the blends I've been playing with have much of the country cold except for AZ, CA, and the Great Lakes / Northern Plains. Don't think it's a particularly wet winter for the four corner states. Have to keep looking at stuff though. I'll put out my outlook by 10/10.

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On 9/24/2019 at 9:54 AM, Chinook said:

There was certainly some Mountain West weather yesterday, with about 14 severe storm reports in the Southwest also. At this time, there is still rainfall around Tucson.

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Im out in Phoenix to play golf while my wife is at a conference...the storms yesterday and today were impressive. Went for a hike about 1/2 hr west of phoenix and the results of the flooding were really evident. Nonstop lightning with the storm near Glendale tnite. 

 

Figures I come to play golf and I gotta deal with rain. Sucks. 

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