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Tallis Rockwell

Severe storms and flash flooding for May 7-13

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Anyone find out how the wind farm held up to the Tohoka tornado yesterday?

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Today seems pretty big to me along the front in KS. Numerous/scattered large supercells producing giant hail, and tornadoes appear likely before a transition into cluster/bowing segments. 

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Lots of CAPE in excess of > 4500 J/kg in southern Kansas/N OK. First damage reports of the day?

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY AND WESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

At 510 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tuttle Creek
Lake, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management. At 510 PM emergency management
         reported wind damage 4 miles northeast of Riley.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Westmoreland, St. George, Olsburg, Tuttle Creek Lake and
Keats.

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And of course the lone supercell in the high planes is producing. See cheyenne radar site. Classic reflectivity presentation

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Tornado watch up for eastern KS south of the front, initiation seems in doubt to the southwest, at least for the time being...

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TWC seems to be overplaying the tornado risk Wednesday. Shocking, I know.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

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49 minutes ago, wotan said:

TWC seems to be overplaying the tornado risk Wednesday. Shocking, I know.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 

Wednesday looks like the least likely day for widespread tornadoes compared to today and Tuesday. That squall line Tuesday night is going to really work everything over I don’t see the airmass recovering behind it enough at this point. Could be wrong, but most times when we count on recovery behind an MCS it doesn’t happen. 

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Wednesday looks like the least likely day for widespread tornadoes compared to today and Tuesday. That squall line Tuesday night is going to really work everything over I don’t see the airmass recovering behind it enough at this point. Could be wrong, but most times when we count on recovery behind and MCS it doesn’t happen. 
But there's a Torcon of 6 for parts of Oklahoma and Texas Wednesday!

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

  • Haha 1

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New watch for southwest KS, finally. They waited until initiation was well underway. I guess that's one way of doing it, with at least some certainty of storms...

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If you have one of the radar applications, zoom in to a storm near Boden and Puente TX (near Amarillo.) The left moving (sub-severe) storm became stronger than the right moving storm.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
726 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 726 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR ZOOK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  RADIUM AROUND 800 PM CDT.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
731 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 730 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF  
  WILLIAMSBURG, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
  HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT   
           CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES.   
           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  OTTAWA, GARNETT, WELLSVILLE, CENTROPOLIS, POMONA, RICHMOND,  
  WILLIAMSBURG, QUENEMO, GREELEY, PRINCETON, LANE, RANTOUL AND POMONA  
  LAKE.  
  

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SPC in meso discussion expects a MCS to form and rapidly move se this evening.  Current Springfield MO forecast says to expect t storms after 5 am tomorrow.  I don't think so.

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50 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
731 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 730 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF  
  WILLIAMSBURG, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
  HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT   
           CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES.   
           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  OTTAWA, GARNETT, WELLSVILLE, CENTROPOLIS, POMONA, RICHMOND,  
  WILLIAMSBURG, QUENEMO, GREELEY, PRINCETON, LANE, RANTOUL AND POMONA  
  LAKE.  
  

I’ve been watching that storm all night. It has been nasty and is still going strong 

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Best looking storms atm are a band of supercells at kddc. One in particular looks to have pretty good inflow and some broad rotation 

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
731 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 730 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF  
  WILLIAMSBURG, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
  
  HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT   
           CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES.   
           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  OTTAWA, GARNETT, WELLSVILLE, CENTROPOLIS, POMONA, RICHMOND,  
  WILLIAMSBURG, QUENEMO, GREELEY, PRINCETON, LANE, RANTOUL AND POMONA  
  LAKE.  
  

Was on this storm for a few hours. Had pretty awesome mothership structure for a while. Unfortunately didn’t get many chances to pull over and take pics as 70-80mph RFD was constantly surging. Was on the verge of becoming less-outflow’y for a while but just never could. Eventually made a bad road decision and got stuck in the insane wind-driven hail core on I35.

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And as darkness closes in, there has been a single confirmed tornado... In Cheyenne, WY.

Nobody predicted that would happen.

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Some reports on Twitter of a tornado with this storm but not conformed. 

Screenshot_2019-05-06-22-42-33.jpg

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GRLevel3 shows this storm-relative velocity --- all in the same direction??  Possible 2" - 3" hailstones

vGwypSh.png

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Quite the change from the Day 3 SPC OTLK to the new day 2 re ENH risk areas:

How it looked at day 3

swody3_categorical.png.fef3061a2802d8a9611897279a3e9557.png

 

How it looks now in the new morning day 2

swody2_categorical.png.ae63eaeb3c0bbd540c2e30eb925bc64d.png

 

Discussion mentions that the CAMs are showing an MCS to move through during morning hours 

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11 minutes ago, yoda said:

Discussion mentions that the CAMs are showing an MCS to move through during morning hours 

Like clockwork

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Day-1 (midnight) outlook for tomorrow goes with 45% (moderate) for wind and hail in similar sections of the Texas Panhandle, mainly east. 10% (enhanced) for tornadoes, most of Texas Panhandle, into Oklahoma.

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For what it's worth, today's 6z NAM3K (and the 0z) seem to juice things up enough to initiate storms in OK on Wednesday evening.  Today's 6z HRRR (that goes out to 36 hours) puts the MCS' outflow no further south than the northern suburbs of the DFW area at 18z on Wednesday... if that were to verify, seeing an outflow over a populated area does raise my eyebrows just a little bit.

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