wotan Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Now to watch TWC walking back yesterday's Torcon forecast for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Tomorrow is a good example of why it's usually not a good idea to be cautious about getting too specific with tornado threats more than a day or two out. Especially when convection the morning of is going to, potentially, play a major role in late-day redevelopment of storms. There are exceptions to this rule, when the large scale signal is very clear, but this is not one of those cases. It was clear by yesterday than an MCS was going to alter tomorrow's "threat" around peak heating and the signal was there as early as Sunday within some of the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Mod threat for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Mod threat for today. Yep, tornado threat ramped up to 15% hatched near and east of Amarillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 hatched wind added in 1630 SPC OTLK in E TX Panhandle and SW OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Just now, yoda said: hatched wind added in 1630 SPC OTLK in E TX Panhandle and SW OK Significant Tornado area also expanded. MDT risk driven by all three hazards now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Significant Tornado area also expanded. MDT risk driven by all three hazards now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue May 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. A couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... An upper low over Arizona, with a preceding cyclonically curved belt (50+ kt at 500 mb) of strengthening southwesterly winds aloft, will spread east-northeasterly toward the southern High Plains through tonight. A leading belt of forcing for ascent, as subtly evidenced per water vapor imagery, appears to be crossing New Mexico late this morning with a related increase in thunderstorms from northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. A moist environment exists early today across the region, with northward-advecting 12Z subjectively analyzed 12-16C 850 mb dewpoints (mean-mixing ratios >12g/kg) extending from the Lower Rio Grande vicinity of South Texas into the Texas South Plains. Regarding the possibility of an increasing severe risk early this afternoon in vicinity of the surface front, see Mesoscale Discussion 567. Farther south, initial intense surface-based supercell development will become more likely by around mid-afternoon across the Texas Panhandle near and just south of a surface low/dryline and arcing front-related triple point. Pending the disposition of ongoing early-day storms, additional low-level upslope-aided supercellular development could also occur this afternoon across the Raton Meso vicinity of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado. Across the Texas Panhandle into the Texas South Plains, 35-40 kt of effective shear in conjunction with very steep mid-level lapse rates and 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will support initial supercells capable of very large hail and some tornado risk. A steady increase in low-level shear/SRH is likely to occur late this afternoon and especially early this evening in the warm sector, with effective SRH likely climbing in excess of 200 m2/s2. The semi-discrete storm mode, at least for a time, along with increasing low-level shear is likely to support an increase in tornado risk by early evening, with the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes. Upscale growth into clusters and eventually a more extensive QLCS is expected into mid/late evening and the overnight hours from northwest Texas into western/central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Damaging winds will become a more substantial threat will embedded supercells/bowing segments tonight, though large hail will remain possible. A couple of tornadoes and/or severe gusts may also occur with circulations embedded within the QLCS. ..Guyer/Coniglio.. 05/07/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 More NWS AmarilloVerified account @NWSAmarillo 2h2 hours ago Today is shaping up to be one of the more active severe wx days in recent years for #phwx. The setup favors supercells capable of all hazards, including strong tornadoes. The whole area could see severe wx, but the central and eastern TX Panhandle is of most concern. #txwx #okwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 This is a ways from the main threat area, but there is a cell just NE of Houston with an apparent mesocyclone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...An initial severe risk early this afternoon should be focused along/north of a surface front that extends southwest-northeast across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Large hail and some tornado risk will exist with these storms. Additional development is likely by mid/late afternoon across additional portions of the Texas Panhandle. Supercells capable of very large hail can be expected. The tornado risk will tend to steadily increase through late afternoon and especially early this evening, including the potential for a couple of strong/intense tornadoes. Damaging winds could also be an increasing concern across the eastern Panhandles this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Guymon OK to 35 miles south southeast of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 80/70 probs on the tornado watch for the panhandle, higher than I was expecting forsure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Prothro Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 18z HRRR has the MCS missing DFW entirely. 12z 3K still has the line hitting but a second line developing after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Storm in Oldham and Potter County TX warned for hail to baseball size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 First tornado warning of the day in northern Texas ground zero. The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Carson County in the Panhandle of Texas... Northeastern Potter County in the Panhandle of Texas... * Until 430 PM CDT. * At 343 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 14 miles southwest of Lake Meredith, or 17 miles north of Amarillo, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Here come the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 With the northern warned cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Most interested in the plain view cell as it’s pretty discrete and moving up into the more highly sheared environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Nice. That was the original cell that went up just north of Amarillo, that had a lot of chasers on it at first but most had given it up as a losing proposition well before the tor... Just goes to show, you never can tell, especially in the panhandle. To be fair, the couplet on it was never all that impressive on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 0-3 km SRH is up to near 200 m**2/s**2 per derived KAMA hodograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 These radar sites normally have this much contamination? Velocity has been awful on all of them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Edmonson cell pushing out a hook and should get a warning here shortly as well. Looks like things are heating up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, pbrussell said: Most interested in the plain view cell as it’s pretty discrete and moving up into the more highly sheared environment Me as well. The cross-section and volume scans of this storm are beautiful. Highest chance out of all the storms right now to stay discrete for the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Prothro Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Just went warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Supercell northwest of Plain View just went TOR warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 There's an isolated big cell well south near the Pecos River, although low level shear is much less down there. *EDIT: that one just picked up a tornado warning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Prothro Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Just now, 1900hurricane said: There's an isolated big cell well south near the Pecos River, although low level shear is much less down there. It is a beast on KMAF The National Weather Service in Midland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Pecos County in southwestern Texas... * Until 515 PM CDT. * At 425 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 15 miles north of Fort Stockton, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Pecos County, including the following locations... Imperial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Prothro Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 Looks like a huge meso, though we are looking 6K feet in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: It is a beast on KMAF The National Weather Service in Midland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Pecos County in southwestern Texas... * Until 515 PM CDT. * At 425 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 15 miles north of Fort Stockton, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Pecos County, including the following locations... Imperial. Isn’t there always a massive supercell down there doing it’s own thing? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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