Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2019 Tropical Weather Discussion


Solak
 Share

Recommended Posts

That strong wave that came off of Africa recently has been upgraded to 40% chance of development in 5 days. It has dry air in front of it and some hostile winds it will have to navigate but does have model support for development in the long range. The GFS, in particular, has been fairly consistent showing a moderately strong cane recurving off the SE coast in 10-11 days. I feel like this is one that may bide it's time until it gets into the vicinity of the lesser Antilles. Way far out but something to watch and probably signals the beginning of our cape verde tracking season

sunday 8.11.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the shear I was referring to. It has a narrow finger of somewhat favorable winds but is not consolidated enough to take advantage before it enters that large area of 30-40kt shear. Should it travel slightly further south, however, it may spend more time in that finger of lighter winds, affording the opportunity for some consolidation of convection

7.31 shear.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, shaggy said:

Yeah it is on a classic track in the models but turns north sharply along the Bahamas. 

I'm hoping all storms turn away this year. My group was overwhelmed last year during/after the hurricanes. I want nothing to do with these storms again.

But the 12z GFS still shows the storm. It still recurves, but we all know that can change if the high to the east is closer or stronger. 

Day 10:

aaac.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I'm hoping all storms turn away this year. My group was overwhelmed last year during/after the hurricanes. I want nothing to do with these storms again.

But the 12z GFS still shows the storm. It still recurves, but we all know that can change if the high to the east is closer or stronger. 

 

 

The "Old" GFS has it too, albeit closer to the coast. I work for Duke Energy and am part of the storm response team so, trust me, I hope everything recurves this year! It's been a whirlwind for us last few years between Matthew, Nate, Irma, Florence, and Michael! I do enjoy tracking these storms, especially Cape Verde ones. I hope it's a busy season but only with fish storms!

oldgfs.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The "Old" GFS has it too, albeit closer to the coast. I work for Duke Energy and am part of the storm response team so, trust me, I hope everything recurves this year! It's been a whirlwind for us last few years between Matthew, Nate, Irma, Florence, and Michael! I do enjoy tracking these storms, especially Cape Verde ones. I hope it's a busy season but only with fish storms!

oldgfs.png

I hear you. I work for NCDIT GIS (formally part of NCDOT). We're tasked with developing, gathering, and serving out transportation related datasets during emergency events. It was absolutely horrible last year. I think I went three weeks without a full day off.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Retired GFS was even closer. Looks like both runs had a stronger ridge and slowed the trough that eventually comes to kick whatever develops out to sea. 

We’re still so far out that the operational guidance has limited use. I’d strongly favor a recurve at this point but all options are on the table. 

Could it pull a Faux Joaquin at some point? Interesting days ahead assuming the TC in question gains a foothold. It's pretty early in the year for deep troughs so it seems Florida-bound.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, downeastnc said:

the Hi Res models have a interesting little swirl off the NC coast this weekend....

Saw that on the NAM for a few runs now. We've many instances of tropical lows developing right on the coast within a dying frontal boundary almost out of nowhere, though few get beyond depression (or to depression) status. Will be an interesting feature for the outer banks Sun-Mon. Ruined my offshore fishing plans already!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

98L with 50% 5 day development odds now.

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

1. Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of
low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the
central Bahamas.  This system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over
the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast
United States coast.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and
the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Roberts

Looks like it's up to 90% development odds over next 5 days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...