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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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It's summertime next month! :sun:Anytime have any advice on managing a pool, this is my first year with one. Looks colder then average to start the week and progressively get warmer the next few weeks.

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability

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5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Got lucky and busted into the warm sector here early this afternoon. BUF was up to 78 at 4pm. Feels fantastic. 

Perfect outside!  Well except the rain drops already working in.  Still can’t get more than a few hour window of decent weather around here! 

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Hawaiis weather next week. :sun:

MON
 
MAY 6
Sunny
81°70°
0%
W 11 mph 58%
TUE
 
MAY 7
Mostly Sunny
82°72°
0%
SW 11 mph 61%
WED
 
MAY 8
Mostly Sunny
83°73°
0%
SW 10 mph 65%
THU
 
MAY 9
Mostly Sunny
85°73°
10%
W 10 mph 66%
FRI
 
MAY 10
Mostly Sunny
85°73°
10%
W 9 mph 64%
SAT
 
MAY 11
Mostly Sunny
84°73°
20%
WSW 9 mph 66%

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7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Hawaiis weather next week. :sun:

MON
 
MAY 6
Sunny
81°70°
0%
W 11 mph 58%
TUE
 
MAY 7
Mostly Sunny
82°72°
0%
SW 11 mph 61%
WED
 
MAY 8
Mostly Sunny
83°73°
0%
SW 10 mph 65%
THU
 
MAY 9
Mostly Sunny
85°73°
10%
W 10 mph 66%
FRI
 
MAY 10
Mostly Sunny
85°73°
10%
W 9 mph 64%
SAT
 
MAY 11
Mostly Sunny
84°73°
20%
WSW 9 mph 66%

Lucky you!!  Here's our forecast next week:

Monday - Cloudy with showers.  5 minutes maximum of sunshine.  Temperatures between 45 and 59 degrees.  

Tuesday through Sunday - See Monday.  

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17 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Lucky you!!  Here's our forecast next week:

Monday - Cloudy with showers.  5 minutes maximum of sunshine.  Temperatures between 45 and 59 degrees.  

Tuesday through Sunday - See Monday.  

I think we start seeing a transition mid month towards more summer type conditions. Canada starts to heat up the last week of the GEFS

gfs-ens_T850a_us_65.png

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Good to see, hope it holds up!  Persistence of this pattern has been remarkably annoying. Haven’t checked online, but have to think L Ontario water levels could be a problem like we had a couple years ago. 

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5 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Good to see, hope it holds up!  Persistence of this pattern has been remarkably annoying. Haven’t checked online, but have to think L Ontario water levels could be a problem like we had a couple years ago. 

Apparently the flooding in Montreal is forecast to crest higher than 2017, which means they outflows off Ontario will have to be less than they were around the same time in 2017. Apparently that's causing a (relatively) rapid rise in Ontario's lake level.

And interestingly enough lake Erie is at a record high for the month of May right now. Or at least is above the record high average for May, so there could be some discrepancy there. 

https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/Water-Level-Forecast/Weekly-Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/

 

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2 hours ago, southbuffalowx said:

Apparently the flooding in Montreal is forecast to crest higher than 2017, which means they outflows off Ontario will have to be less than they were around the same time in 2017. Apparently that's causing a (relatively) rapid rise in Ontario's lake level.

And interestingly enough lake Erie is at a record high for the month of May right now. Or at least is above the record high average for May, so there could be some discrepancy there. 

https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/Water-Level-Forecast/Weekly-Great-Lakes-Water-Levels/

 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2019/05/is-climate-change-to-blame-for-lake-ontarios-alarming-water-levels.html

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This spring continues to suck beyond my wildest expectations.

I stood outside in the drizzle an hour ago, waiting to put the kids on the schoolbus, and we were swarmed by black flies.

I looked at the growing grass that I don't stand a chance of mowing before it reaches jungle height because we can't get 2 days of dry weather.

And thought that Tucson, even at 95F, sounded pretty damned good.

 

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Another overcast rainy morning.. At least a trace of rain 16 out of the last 19 days...Not complaining though lol I enjoy cool rainy conditions compared to hot and dry

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We’ve had a short respite here in WNY. Sun broke out yesterday afternoon and full sun to start today. Looks short lived though. Bummer you guys out east are still stuck in the gloom. 

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4 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

We’ve had a short respite here in WNY. Sun broke out yesterday afternoon and full sun to start today. Looks short lived though. Bummer you guys out east are still stuck in the gloom. 

Yeah, we had a beautiful Sunday, and it’s nice today. But it looks a bit greyer later this week.

Fingers crossed that we get the usual arrival of consistently warmer, sunnier weather around the 20th or so.

 

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A rather convoluted short term pattern looks set to unfold over
the lower Great Lakes from Tuesday night through the end of the
work week. The front we can`t seemingly shake will make another
return from the south by Wednesday as a warm front. This will
first spread clouds and eventually rain northward by late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. There remains some uncertainty
as to how far northward this front will wander as the GFS/NAM
consensus favors it lingering over the Niagara Frontier rather
than continuing to surge northward...at least for a while. This
results in persistent rain chances with a strongly bifurcated
wind field with strong easterlies over Lake Ontario and
southerly flow south of the Buffalo area.

The first wave runs down the front late Wednesday night into
Thursday with the first surge in PWATs. The consensus favors
0.50-1.00 inch of rain with this first slug of moisture without
and real push for the front behind it. Thus, its position is
relatively similar as yet another wave is set to track down the
front Thursday night into Friday as substantially stronger warm
advection starts ahead of this second low pressure passage in
the short term. PWATs head toward 1.5 inches with this surge of
warmer air and modest instability looks present. Thus, rainfall
could be a bit more impressive as this second wave passes.
Likewise, warm air takes up residence over the area late
Thursday into early Friday, so temperatures will quickly run up
above normal for a bit.

The trailing cold front looks to come ripping through on Friday.
A quick turn to westerly flow with this front will bring cooler
lake air over the Buffalo metro area, which will knock
temperatures down rapidly. However, farther east, with a later
frontal arrive, will mean a quite warm Friday before the best
chance of showers and a few thunderstorms arrives with the cold
front and onset of drier air into the CWA

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019050612_228_479_220 (1).png

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The cold front will approach overnight, and a well defined southern
stream wave will ripple along it from the Ohio Valley to the eastern
Great Lakes. This baroclinic wave will bring a period of enhanced
ascent and moisture transport supported by a 50 knot low level jet.
The low level dynamics will combine with a favorable upper level
setup to produce a period of deep layer ascent across the eastern
Great Lakes for a 4-6 hour period overnight. PWAT rises to around
1.5 inches, which is 2-3 sigma above average for this time of year.
The result will be widespread rain, with a few corridors of moderate
to heavy rain probable. Enough instability will continue overnight
to support a chance of a few embedded thunderstorms, especially
given the strong forcing. Total rainfall on average will likely
approach an inch across Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario
region, with somewhat lower amounts across the Genesee Valley and
western Finger Lakes. Embedded thunderstorms may produce a few local
totals of over an inch. The risk of any flooding is low given the
fast movement of the system, with expected rainfall amounts likely
only resulting in ponding of water in poor drainage areas.
Mid-level shortwave energy and the last in a series of surface lows
will track past the lower lakes to our west across Lake Huron as it
heads into Canada early Friday. Widespread soaking rains will
gradually lift ENE and taper off across the forecast area by mid
morning. As the surface low tracks further into Canada it will send
its corresponding cold front towards and across Western New York.
With ample moisture in place (PW values in the neighborhood of 1.25
to 1.50 inches) and a supporting mid-level impulse punching in
behind the initial shortwave energy showers will likely become more
numerous just ahead and then along the cold front. With that said,
the severe weather potential at this point looks very limited across
Western New York. However, NAM/GFS SBCAPE values do climb to ~700-
900 J/kg well to our east across the western Finger Lake region and
into North Central NY. This is where SPC has placed a marginal
risk. Also, it will become fairly breezy, especially down wind
of the lakes, with sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to
35-40 mph. With the passage of the front look for showers to
taper off from west to east. With strong cold air advection
occuring temperatures will fall off behind the front quickly
with temperatures peaking in the low 60s across far Western New
York. Look for highs in the upper 60s to even low 70s across the
western Finger Lakes into North Central NY.

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Sunday and Monday the medium range guidance packages remain in pretty
good agreement on another mid level trough dropping southeastward across
the Great Lakes and Northeast...with an attendant surface low rippling
northeastward from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys across the mid-Atlantic
states...then to a position off the New England coastline. Such a pattern
will likely result in yet another round of rain overspreading our region
Sunday and Sunday night...before slowly diminishing Monday and Monday
night as the system departs off to our east. With this in mind...have
continued the upward trend in PoPs during this portion of the period...
with high likelies Sunday/Sunday night gradually dropping back through
the chance range Monday and Monday night. Otherwise temps should continue
to average out at least a bit below normal...and possibly notably
so on Monday should the colder ECMWF solution verify

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we had flakes in the air yesterday afternoon, but nowhere as much as STamford!

 

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2 hours ago, dutch said:

we had flakes in the air yesterday afternoon, but nowhere as much as STamford!

 

High Peaks of New Hampshire looking at 6-12 tonight into tomorrow.  Pretty impressive.  

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