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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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1 minute ago, vortmax said:

Well, the forecast surely looks like a fall pattern has set in. Time to start thinking about this next winter season!

Screenshot.thumb.png.31e38a408f24cab6bb213b41c9088e3e.png

Agreed. Next 10 days or so look to have some below average to some above average and the rest around normal. All in all no 80 degree days on the horizon save for next Wednesday in the Genesee Valley region of WNY. I see 60's to mid 70's most days with nights in the 50's...perfect beginning to fall.

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11 hours ago, Luke_Mages said:

Any thoughts on possible "Blob" correlation to colder/snowier winters here? Looks like another event similar to 14/15 shaping up out west. 

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 07AUG2019     20.3-0.6     25.3 0.1     27.3 0.4     29.6 0.9
 14AUG2019     20.0-0.7     24.7-0.3     27.0 0.1     29.5 0.8
 21AUG2019     20.3-0.3     24.7-0.3     26.8 0.0     29.5 0.8
 28AUG2019     20.2-0.4     24.6-0.3     26.5-0.2     29.2 0.6
 04SEP2019     19.8-0.6     24.9 0.0     26.6-0.2     29.1 0.5

Nino 3 warmed up a bit this week. Well behind 2017 for cold at this point, except in Nino 1.2 which is volatile. 

 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1

CFS & Canadian have essentially opposite winter forecasts right now, with the CFS warm almost everywhere for SSTs and the new Canadian cold almost everywhere. 

The Weatherbell guys like a blend of 2013-14/2014-15 or 2013-14 (x3), 2014-15, 2018-19. That gives you a cold eastern tropical Pacific, with a warm western tropical Pacific. I have some issues with it as a blend, but it does look close to current SSTs. The West is generally wetter in winters after El Ninos for one. The sea ice was also a lot higher in 2013/2014 at the minimum extent in September. Also think Nino 4 will be a lot warmer than that blend, but we'll see. The ECMWF Nino 3.4 Sept 1 forecast updated should be out any day now, and the Jamstec is likely later in the week too.

 December_2019_February_2020_Forecast.png

Winter_2019_20_Snowfall.png

 
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The week of September 22nd has had some interesting outputs the last few days.  Every few runs it tries to phase a powerful tropical system with a very strong mid latitude storm which brings down ridiculously cold air (528dm heights!)  It never lasts more than a run but its exciting to see things like this popping up even if its straight fantasy at this point

Capture.thumb.PNG.2550adebfc4dfa7e97b4ba5006336033.PNG

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14 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

The week of September 22nd has had some interesting outputs the last few days.  Every few runs it tries to phase a powerful tropical system with a very strong mid latitude storm which brings down ridiculously cold air (528dm heights!)  It never lasts more than a run but its exciting to see things like this popping up even its its straight fantasy as this point

Capture.thumb.PNG.2550adebfc4dfa7e97b4ba5006336033.PNG

It's almost that time of year. Fantasy storm season! What about them bills? I cannot believe they won with 4 turnovers. Historically speaking they had less than a 1% chance of winning that one. Hopefully we can beat the Giants this weekend. 

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The fantasy runs keep coming.  Check out this amazing hit from a still category 1 hurricane right in our kitchen!  I've dreamt of  this scenario for decades......if only it wasn't 372 hours out, lolz :lol:

Capture.thumb.PNG.f609d4b9967226a32d8311fc87dc51ee.PNG

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Been showing this for a week in some form or fashion. Been awhile since I posted. From east side of rochester. Here is to fall winter season coming up. Think this me me a wild one for upstate. Lots of action this winter. More cold that not and plenty of snow. Warm water south of Alaska and near Greenland supports a focusing me mechanism of mean trof over great lake east coast. 

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Surprised to see a flood watch pop up for tonight! Looks like another stormy night on tap!

Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Buffalo, and Batavia
738 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of western New York...
including the following counties...Genesee...Monroe...
Niagara...Northern Erie and Orleans.

* Through Thursday morning.

* Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected overnight through
Thursday morning over western New York. Portions of the area
already have received heavy rainfall on Wednesday morning, and
additional localized rainfall of 1 to 2 inches can be expected
through Thursday morning.

* Urban areas around Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Batavia, and
Rochester will be especially susceptible to flooding.



.

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46 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Why do I see this whole area of convection just dry up before it gets to us...
cb6b8fdf7fe000708838389417ce9cdd.gif


.

It appears to be morphing into an MCS so it may organize and strengthen with nocturnal stability. If so I’m guessing it will start to turn right (south) as the night progresses. 

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It might be just the way the radar is picking it up, but the current light rain falling over much of the lake plains on the Niagara Frontier sure does resemble lake effect or lake enhanced off Georgian Bay and lake Huron

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5 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

NWS Buffalo Lake effect archive updated to include 2018-2019..(13 events)

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2018-2019&event=A

I saw that. Not quite the most accurate year for keeping track of events. They had a max snowfall of 5-8" across southtowns for the Jan 29-31st event. When I received over 20". I have pics of well over 2' from that storm. December was terrible last year. Hopefully we can have a good one this year.

Also forgot we had 2 pretty good events in November.

G_label.png

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14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First snow for the Dacks showing up later in month. I'll be in Lake Placid for my buddys bachelor party with 8 guys hiking a few peaks from Sep. 25-29. Maybe see some real snow up there above 5k feet? 

gfs_T850_us_63.png

gfs_T850a_us_64.png

Looks promising.

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34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Also booked my trip to Peru Oct 13th-21st. Visiting these 3 spots and possibly a few more. Machu Pichu, Rainbow Mountain, and Humantey Lake. Cannot wait. 

Machu Picchu ‘threatened’ by new airportRelated image

Image result for humantay lake

 

 

What an incredible trip. I have a friend who grew up in Cusco, that part of the world sounds like an amazing place.

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1 hour ago, WNash said:

What an incredible trip. I have a friend who grew up in Cusco, that part of the world sounds like an amazing place.

That's where we are staying. Flying from Toronto-Lima-Cusco. I was told by a friend that just went there to not rent a car, everywhere I've traveled I've always rented. I want to do as much hiking as possible, but worried about the elevation there. 

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's where we are staying. Flying from Toronto-Lima-Cusco. I was told by a friend that just went there to not rent a car, everywhere I've traveled I've always rented. I want to do as much hiking as possible, but worried about the elevation there. 

That looks stunningly picturesque! Especially rainbow mountain. Now to the 15 day...signs have been showing a rather chilly October for a couple months now so the end of the month possibility does not surprise me at all...its the slam on the brake summer weather that will be most surprising...but I'll take it at that time!!!

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's where we are staying. Flying from Toronto-Lima-Cusco. I was told by a friend that just went there to not rent a car, everywhere I've traveled I've always rented. I want to do as much hiking as possible, but worried about the elevation there. 

If you have some cardio in your workout routine you'll be fine. I think you've mentioned before here that you lift, I lift and do minimal (20 mins x 4 weekly) cardio and I was fine with the air in Bogata. 

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